Brian5671

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We’ll see what this heavy rain area over coastal NJ does but I’m doubting anything from the city east that causes flooding unless something trains and that might be over eastern Suffolk. Wouldn’t be surprised if I end up under 0.5”. 

HRRR shows the northern extent filling in a bit-nails Suffolk and CT and the hudson valley

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

As modeled

seems larger than modeled-almost no precip outside of one band moving through now-maybe it fills in a bit later-but the flood watch for some areas may be over-done

Looks like a relative dry slot for NYC and much of NJ

big dry slot for NJ and NYC

Great day here sunny and 74

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Dumb question where the heck is this rain coming from. Closest rain is well severs hundreds of miles away. 

2 parts-the front slipping down from the north gets activated later today but that activity is mainly N and W of the city.    Then a wave/storm forms on the stalled front and moves up late tonight/tomorrow-ending late day/early eve

43 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

once again the euro is the furthest sw and the wettest

It'll bust...3K nam is much faster and over by late afternoon

NE PA getting pounded by severe

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

This is a three month broadbrush.  It could very easily be hot and dry in June and July and extremely wet and warm in August from tropical systems.

That reminds me of 2011.....

 

It could but I doubt we see a cool summer given the guidance

Looks torchy and wet like many of our recent summers...

Getting pounded here with downpours again

Waterlogged here after all night showers/downpours with more incoming-going to be one wet week if the Friday event verifies

off and on tropical downpours here all afternoon

Crushed here-but it's moved NW of us now so rates have lightened up.

Hvy rain moved in here...61 degrees

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s exactly what I was getting at. They cancled the TOH car show at point lookout Saturday. People drove in from all over, and they were pissed.

Getting some pretty steady moderate rain now.

yeah-something like that you need a lead time to reschedule vendors etc.   It's never an easy call that's for sure.   The models had bailed on the rains but it took another day for forecasts to catch up.  Other things like a little league game you can wait til day of...

7 minutes ago, Sundog said:

To be fair, a bunch of models did not have this heavy batch rotating through the NYC area right now. 

It was shown more east. 

Models always struggle with these cutoffs and the placement of the rains at a given hour

Just mist and drizzle here so far.   61 degrees

steady rain has commenced here

Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Hour 55 sure. We all get a soaking tomorrow night.

I think by Wednesday we will all be tired of rain...

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

Models seem to have the rains to our south and west not really hitting NYC east. 

Maybe they'll be wrong, we'll see. 

3K NAM crushes us all

6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Just get the yankee game in, after that it can pour.

That slug of rain in S NJ may be a problem

-

NAMS coming in very wet for many here

Models are wet Mon-Wed-althought placement of the big rains is still a bit in the air

3K NAM

32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

So many did, expecting a weekend washout 

Machines ahead of the humans on this one-models backed off 36 hrs ago

7 minutes ago, Picard said:

Hopefully folks didn't cancel outdoor plans based on earlier forecasts that didn't materialize. 
I watched that line skip north like many others in recent memory  - looked like a nice line.  We'll see if more pops up later.  Otherwise, north will continue to rule the day.

 

The front ended up further north-hence the forcing up that way....