Brian5671

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Mowed for the third time already today 

3 here as well.   Usually starts mid April but I'd say we are 7-10 days ahead of climo here

Today's theme seems to be to initially keeping alot of the rain to the N and W

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Part of the problem with these forecasts is it will say 70% chance of showers Saturday and Sunday but end up raining for a total of 4 or 6 hours.  I see lots of cancellations of weekend events already

yeah-most models don't have much at all for Saturday now....

22 minutes ago, dWave said:

Working at the 5 boro bike tour I hope that's true for Sunday. Or at least limited to an occasional light shower.

Ugh-that's miserable in the rain-we did it a few years back a few times-one year had off and on shower and cold.

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Weekend looks fine for most of SNE

yeah it seems like Mon-Wed is the real wet period but who knows with a cutoff low where it actually ends up.

The GFS has joined the wet models for next week

34 minutes ago, MANDA said:

April precipitation here was 4.76".  While a nice total most of that fell in the first 12 days.  Only an additional .74" fell from the 13th. through the 30th.  April also delivered 1.5" snow for a 2024-25 total of 30.9".

Rainfall amounts over the next week will depend greatly on final track / placement of upper low.  Slight positioning and speed differences will have big impact on who gets what.  Thinking a compromise of wet EURO / CMC vs. dry GFS is way to go at the moment as @bluewave said.

Pattern has potential to deliver or disappoint.  With the wind, low humidity and lack or rainfall over the last 2 weeks or so we could use a 1"+ soaking.

I'd be happy with another inch or so

Euro/CMC wet early next week with 3-5 inches of rain-GFS meanwhile is nothing like that with a progressive pattern

45 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

PA storms

 

 

wonder if any of that survives the trip

dropped down to 70 here with the south winds off the water after a high of 74

Long range Euro but drought's over

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

Windier?  Its been windy for at least the last 9 years...

Ha!    True-I was comparing to yesterday...but yeah windy as hell...Sunday was gusting to at least 40

Windier here today as well.   Gusting to 20-25 already.  

up to 73 here-another beaut!

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro updated seasonal forecast for the summer will be out on May 5th. It actually has been one of the better periods for seasonal forecast skill of summer temperatures and 500 mb patterns. 

My guess is that this dry pattern will generally continue into the summer as it has been very persistent especially in Eastern PA into NJ. The last time we had a dry pattern heading  into the summer was 2022. This is when NJ reached 100° over 5 times but the areas further east had more onshore flow and less 100° heat than NJ. 

So our first hints on summer wind direction will probably come with the Euro update on May 5th.
 

 

2022 was bone dry especially in July/August.    Got wet in September-kind of the opposite of last year where we dried out in the fall.

Quite the T-storm here last evening-dropped another .40 or so so about an inch on the day

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Only .12 here so far, and radar doesn't look promising. Slight chance we get hit by a downpour this afternoon. If not we're going to end up with less than a quarter inch, which would be pretty disappointing. 

models keep most of it north of NYC  rest of day/eve

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

yep and it can't really snow that time of year anyway

When I was a teenager and younger during the 80s I used to shiver in early October because my parents refused to turn on the heat before October 15th, I really hated that lol.

Before that when we lived in an apartment the landlord would not turn on the heat before November 1-- even worse lol.

I hate temperatures colder than the 70s without any heat.

Nov 1st is pushing it-usually you need heat in the AM to take the chill off the house

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what did you think of October-first half of November

 

temps in the 70s and sunny are nice, save on heating lol

I'll take it-winter is still long enough even with the warming....

Just now, Sundog said:

March was +4 and so far April is +1 so I'm not surprised things greened up in a hurry. 

The sad thing is people I know were acting like it was so cold this spring and winter lol they have lost all sense of perspective. It's been above normal for so long that they've gotten used to North Carolina averages. 

 

That's the thing-it was cold, cold in relation to how warm it's been for a decade.   but yes it's a completely different climate than 25 yrs ago.   Wetter/warmer overall

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Today is a bust of a day. Crap day. 

Need the rain but too bad on a Saturday.    Played 9 holes last night I was surprised how dry the course was

7 minutes ago, steve392 said:

No idea but it's crazy how early everything is this year.  My lawn last year was just barely out of dormancy.  Im up to 3 mows already this year and i haven't even fertilized yet.  All my perenial flower plants are exploding in growth. Roses are doubled in size since February.  At my job in Mahwah, it's not as in bloom but it's close.

We are a good 7-10 days ahead here-saw a photo from 2015 on my facebook memory today-the trees were still bare

4 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Decent amount of rain in PA

that'll swing through later today with the cold front I guess 

looks like a bust on the all day rain forecast-looks dry for a good chunk of the day now

.58 at BDR with the passage of the warm front

27 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

So, my wife has a booth at a craft fair in Parsippany tomorrow and I keep trying to tell her it's going to rain, maybe not an all out washout but it's not just a few passing showers that might miss. What say ye, waste of time wet or is her optimism justified?

the NAMS show it ending earlier than some models but I would say the period from 8am to 2pm is a washout