BuffaloWeather

The master of lake effect himself Tom niziol Merry Christmas everyone, been off the grid, literally for the past 2 days withut power. Back now!! I decided to use BUFKIT to predict our lake effect snow event tonight through Saturday. I am looking at the band setting up tonight right up to the city, then moving down tot he Southtowns tonight, another quick jaunt up toward the city tomorrow morning, then swings back through the Southtowns and to the Southern Tier tomorrow night. All of this from BUFKIT, it's a mazing what you can pull frok the data, that was the basis behind BUFKIT we developed so many years ago. Parts of the SOuthtowns could see 1-2 ft. of snow. In this display, I have plotted CAPE, Equilibrium Level and the average wind direction up through 700mb. That wind direction can be used to fine tune the location of snowbands. Now ASSUMING the model is correct, you see the detailed forecast I gave in the above paragraph. But as we all know these high resolution models CAN produce highly detailed, yet inaccurate, forecasts. So, the final word is be ready for a narrow band of heavy lake-effect snow. Hunker down, do not try driving the Thruway tonight from Buffalo to the state line. Do not try driving Rte 219 south of Buffalo. DO stay home and enjoy Christmas safely.

Moderate/heavy snow Chestnut Ridge

You're in a good spot for the Huron/Ontario NW flow connections.

Can see the mid level rotation here https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=CASET

I believe that is the start of the lake band

Erie Northwest flow this morning will back to the west by midday, allowing multiple bands to develop from northeast Ohio into the western Southern Tier of NY, with some upslope enhancement along the Chautauqua Ridge. This will remain the mode of lake effect through mid to late afternoon. By early this evening boundary layer flow will be backing to the WSW, which will allow for a single band to consolidate along the Lake Erie shore of Chautauqua County into southern Erie County. This band will then move north towards the Buffalo southtowns and southwest Genesee County by late evening as boundary layer flow continues to back to the southwest. Some high- res guidance suggests a brief southward drift back into southern Erie, western Wyoming, and Chautauqua counties after midnight before the band moves back north to Buffalo again by Saturday morning. The band will reach its northern-most point late morning to early afternoon Saturday into the city of Buffalo and even the nearby northern suburbs before starting to drift back south across the southtowns late in the afternoon. Lowering inversion heights, decreasing moisture, and increasing shear will allow the band to weaken during the afternoon. Snowfall rates will occasionally reach 2 inches per hour in this band of lake effect snow from this evening through midday Saturday. Total accumulations of 15-20 inches are still likely where the band persists the longest from western Chautauqua County, the northwest corner of Cattaraugus County, into southern and central Erie County including South Buffalo and the densely populated nearby southtowns. 6-12 inches are possible from downtown to the airport and the nearby northtowns if the band makes it that far north Saturday, with a very sharp drop off in accumulations heading northward through the northtowns. Ontario Expect a band of snow to organize very late this afternoon or evening across northern Jefferson County. The band of snow will remain between Watertown and the Saint Lawrence River through most of tonight on 220-230 flow. A surface trough will then pass over the east end of Lake Ontario Saturday morning and veer flow to the WSW or even W briefly, pushing an intensifying band of snow south to the central and northern Tug Hill region. The band will then drift a little north again Saturday afternoon to Watertown and the far northern Tug Hill Plateau. Snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour are likely on Saturday when convergence increases along and just behind the trough passage. Total accumulations of 15-20 inches are expected from the central and northern Tug Hill to near Watertown, with 6-10 inches possible even across far northern Jefferson County given how backed the flow is initially tonight. Finally, winds will increase tonight through Saturday with blowing and drifting snow in and near the lake effect bands.

More totals. Looks a general 4-8" across Erie county. Highest QPF was 1.18"

@josh_4184 How you making out over there, looks pretty good on radar.

A few pics. Pure paste

Feel pretty confident bands will go farther north than modeled with lake temps in low/mid 40s with convergent winds. I think the northern fringes of the band will experience the highest snowfall rates. (speaking for lake erie only)

My snowblower got through that heavy snow, it can get through anything. It struggled a little up the little slope of my driveway at the end where the plow came through, but other than that I love my new snowblower. I cannot imagine shoveling all of that stuff. The last 2 years I just shoveled, never again.

Right on @TugHillMatt old place.

Those both did well, ratios were under 1:10 for this. Parts of NE Ohio got 10". The rain/snow line went through Genesee county all night.

@wolfie09 What model did the best? I think the GFS did for globals.

Way out there, but there are definitely a few cutters with NW winds behind it.

The NAM is definitely bad. The 18Z runs yesterday featured no snow for WNY. Everyone got 4-8". Literally as the event was happening that model was way off....

I added backyard nest cam to my signature so you can just click it easier to make it easier. Looks like a strong band will be underway tomorrow with 2-3" per hour rates and thundersnow.

I've been following the HRRR last few weeks, it might be the worst model out of all of them. I think the ICON might be better.

I added backyard nest cam to my signature so you can just click it to make it easier. I think RGEM does best with LES and see the band making it up to metro, northern suburbs will be close call but I still think they get in on it.

Long range features cutter after cutter with lake effect behind each.

Totals: https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html

lake totals off of michigan have overperformed. ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0800 AM HEAVY SNOW SAINT JOSEPH 42.10N 86.49W 12/25/2020 M11.0 INCH BERRIEN MI TRAINED SPOTTER SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL.

Finished with 6.8" overnight of pure slop. 1:6-8 ratios.

What radar is everyone using now? I use Cod and Wunderground but does anyone have a good radar for entire great lakes? I always used NWS one for that.

6.8". Highest so far is 8" in Hamburg Snowfall totals: https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html