BuffaloWeather

30 hours with a strong LES band over BUF on GFS. Classic SW flow event. The first I've seen in awhile with a SW flow for that long. This has potential to be the one @WNash

Big flakes here since around 10

Omgggg I have more hours played in that game then every game combined. I still play it some weekends. There are a few full servers. I’ve met a few irl friends that played from wny in that game. I mainly played assault but transitioned to tam over time. Do you know reflex, gimix, perfection/aud1e, xios, Mercury, tierce? What game mode did you play?

@tombo82685you and another guy in Great Lakes have same avatar messing me up lol

no gamers here =( They canceled Hamilton for the rest of the event in Buffalo, was just about to leave the house.

Should have a good idea by the time high res gets into timeframe. Tuesday night into Weds.

Cold air is pretty easy to see within 2 weeks, its the 3-4+ week stuff that is impossible to predict. Synoptic systems tracks are also very difficult to predict outside of 1-3 days. Lake effect is easily seen well before time. Many events are talked about a full week before in most NWS discussions. If the long range is right lake Erie will be frozen by the first week of February. We better score in the next 3-4 weeks.

Tughill is finally going to get his chance to see what a real Upstate winter is like. Just a perfect extended outlook for winter lovers, especially for those that like snow depth.

The GFS has a long duration SW/WSW LES event. The farther south that storm goes next weekend the longer the LES event last.

@Thinksnow18 this should get you excited. He post bug kit to show depth of cold air, looks fantastic. from Tom Niziol Hey WNY'ers...yes, you will get some snow tonight into Sunday from a large scale (synoptic) system, but as they say on TV...wait there's more!! Looks like its setting up nicely for a lake-effect snow event Thursday into Friday off Lake Erie. Please note, its iWAAAAYY too early to get into the all-important details, but let's say if this pans out Buffalo gets hit hard Thursday into Thursday night then Southtowns Friday. Not long-lasting, starts in Buffalo area on about a 240-250 wind direction, then settles south on a 260-270 wind and finally wind shifts to WNW to drive band south. I included a GFS loop here to show the synoptic scale featutes and the 6-hr precipitation total which is a proxy for snowband location. I will include the 6-hr forecast soundings next at Buffalo to show the depth of the cold air and wind direction. I believe the times run at 6 hour intervals from Thursday at 1AM thru Friday at 7PM.

Just had a chance to look at afternoon models and think there is pretty good consensus on LES event late Weds into Thursday. Well aligned flow and -20 Delta Ts, moisture looks good but then drys up later Thursday night. Wind direction looks SW to start and veers Westerly over time. If the other models are right GFS/GEM is does go back north ahead of that approaching low to the SW on Friday.

Looks good now, but still too early. Its not a blockbuster event pattern but still could be good.

Your snow machine maker is in the mail.

Big day for both teams and you're welcome! =)

A few of the 10 day snowfall total maps

Many expect it to get warmer the last 2 weeks of January but so far the long range GEFS and GPS don't show that. It continues the great pattern. The best part of that ENS suite is the PV on our side of the globe. Taking everything in I expect all of us to have a below average temp January and above average snowfall. It even has "epic" potential IF the models are correct.

Got this in Halo today. Good enough to post to the tube.

New thread! Happy new year all!

December will go down as one of the warmest in recent history for all Upstate recording stations. December Temps BUF: +6.5 ROC: +4.4 WAT: +5.1 SYR: +7.3 BING: +5.7 Buf average Dec. temp: 38.1 Buffalos top 3 Dec temps 42.1 (2015) 38.1 (2021) 37.6 (1923) Buffalo will finish with the 2nd warmest December on record this year and likely the 3rd warmest year on record with last year being #2. Only 2012 was warmer. So in the last 2 years we've had 2 of the top 3 warmest years on record. Snowfall Totals so far: GSB Cities The 2021 - 2022 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time Last Season Normal Seasons Average All Time Season Snowfall Record Binghamton 14.1 25.9 51.6 83.4 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017) Rochester 14.0 30.5 11.7 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960) Syracuse 13.7 40.6 14.8 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993) Buffalo 10.7 34.0 33.8 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977) Albany 5.5 16.2 27.4 60.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971) Lake temperatures are also near record highs We will finally see the Pacific relax with the record breaking -PNA in the next few weeks and the CFS look very cold with a near perfect pattern for the lakes for January. This will allow the cold air that was locked away in the Northwest and SW canada to finally be delivered eastward. With January being the coldest month of the year these departures will be impressive. There are several opportunties for snowfall the next 10 days and the long range outlook looks quite good for winter lovers The first event will start tonight into tomorrow morning with a general 2-4" followed by some lake effect snow for those along the Lake Ontario shoreline There will be a brief warmup Tues/Weds and then a arctic front will go through in the middle of the week. This will lead to a brief window of LES for both lakes. The Canadian would lead to lake snow warnings for East/northeast of the lakes with a very impressive event on Thursday/Friday, the other models show LES but not nearly as strong Following this we have to watch a window next weekend for a potent synoptic event. The OP Euro is the farthest SE with the GEM/GFS farther NW Looking even further out here are the EPS Ensembles for next 2-3 weeks Good luck to all and may the wind direction forever be in your favor.

Yeah those are weird maps from KBUF and a weird long range discussion based on what models are showing. There is a very brief warmup Tues/Weds. They've fallen off quite a bit.

Only Rochester.

“I love children, the only problem with children: they grow up to be people, and I just like animals better than people.” #RIPBettyWhite

18z nam

Absolute legend. I'm rounding up, she made it to 100.