BuffaloWeather

Rochester seems too low, doesn't inspire much confidence either. Majority of Northeast had a top 3 warmest year on record, Boston had its warmest. What are the chances Buffalo and Syracuse have broken thermometers in which Mets at the Buffalo recording station said its fine? https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/2021-was-bostons-warmest-year-on-record/2603147/

Still too far out right now. Probably wont have any confidence until Tuesday night into Weds. GFS has nothing for the storm Friday, GEM brings it into our area. Just crazy model differences.

GFS has a nice 3 lake connection next Monday. Air is pretty dry but still could be a decent band. A lot of times with the really cold air we're seeing in the Globals we won't be able to pinpoint the arctic fronts until a few days away as the high res guidance gets into range.

Yeah over 12 hours of a very intense band over Metro it then sinks into southtowns for 12 hours and then slides back north.

It really is incredible. Came out of no where within 72 hours. Just goes to show you how bad models have been.

2021 yearly review. Global warming is very real and is changing more rapidly than I first imagined.

Synoptic snow is lame. It snowed for 12 hours and we got 2". We will see 2-3" per hour in LES bands later this week.

It looks like winter, about all I got

GEFS for next week, lots of spread.

30 hours with a strong LES band over BUF on GFS. Classic SW flow event. The first I've seen in awhile with a SW flow for that long. This has potential to be the one @WNash

Big flakes here since around 10

Omgggg I have more hours played in that game then every game combined. I still play it some weekends. There are a few full servers. I’ve met a few irl friends that played from wny in that game. I mainly played assault but transitioned to tam over time. Do you know reflex, gimix, perfection/aud1e, xios, Mercury, tierce? What game mode did you play?

@tombo82685you and another guy in Great Lakes have same avatar messing me up lol

no gamers here =( They canceled Hamilton for the rest of the event in Buffalo, was just about to leave the house.

Should have a good idea by the time high res gets into timeframe. Tuesday night into Weds.

Cold air is pretty easy to see within 2 weeks, its the 3-4+ week stuff that is impossible to predict. Synoptic systems tracks are also very difficult to predict outside of 1-3 days. Lake effect is easily seen well before time. Many events are talked about a full week before in most NWS discussions. If the long range is right lake Erie will be frozen by the first week of February. We better score in the next 3-4 weeks.

Tughill is finally going to get his chance to see what a real Upstate winter is like. Just a perfect extended outlook for winter lovers, especially for those that like snow depth.

The GFS has a long duration SW/WSW LES event. The farther south that storm goes next weekend the longer the LES event last.

@Thinksnow18 this should get you excited. He post bug kit to show depth of cold air, looks fantastic. from Tom Niziol Hey WNY'ers...yes, you will get some snow tonight into Sunday from a large scale (synoptic) system, but as they say on TV...wait there's more!! Looks like its setting up nicely for a lake-effect snow event Thursday into Friday off Lake Erie. Please note, its iWAAAAYY too early to get into the all-important details, but let's say if this pans out Buffalo gets hit hard Thursday into Thursday night then Southtowns Friday. Not long-lasting, starts in Buffalo area on about a 240-250 wind direction, then settles south on a 260-270 wind and finally wind shifts to WNW to drive band south. I included a GFS loop here to show the synoptic scale featutes and the 6-hr precipitation total which is a proxy for snowband location. I will include the 6-hr forecast soundings next at Buffalo to show the depth of the cold air and wind direction. I believe the times run at 6 hour intervals from Thursday at 1AM thru Friday at 7PM.

Just had a chance to look at afternoon models and think there is pretty good consensus on LES event late Weds into Thursday. Well aligned flow and -20 Delta Ts, moisture looks good but then drys up later Thursday night. Wind direction looks SW to start and veers Westerly over time. If the other models are right GFS/GEM is does go back north ahead of that approaching low to the SW on Friday.

Looks good now, but still too early. Its not a blockbuster event pattern but still could be good.

Your snow machine maker is in the mail.

Big day for both teams and you're welcome! =)

A few of the 10 day snowfall total maps

Many expect it to get warmer the last 2 weeks of January but so far the long range GEFS and GPS don't show that. It continues the great pattern. The best part of that ENS suite is the PV on our side of the globe. Taking everything in I expect all of us to have a below average temp January and above average snowfall. It even has "epic" potential IF the models are correct.