BuffaloWeather

Yep I remember that day vividly. We got stuck overnight at school. So much fun. The NWS never expected the band to stall over the Metro like it did. They also didn't expect the rates that were in that band.

We know LES cant be predicted perfectly. I remember in Nov 2000 the forecast was 4-8" and we got 25" in like 6 hours.

Long range still looks good for normal/slightly below normal temps for rest of January. Probably a bunch of lake effect spread throughout the region, not seeing much synoptic.

Our friend @tombo82685first good LES event?

Latest HRRR run blast metro Buf

...Significant Lake Snows Northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario... Strong cold front plows across western and north central New York by Wed evening. In its wake, H85 temps will plummet to between -12 and -15c on Wed night. This will ignite lake induced instability over the 40F (+4c) lakes and set the stage for accumulating snows in both the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas. Off Lk Erie, a well aligned 240-250 flow will become established during the first half of Wed night. While the cap will only be 7- 8kft, a 3-5kft thick DGZ should be able to support a single plume of moderate to occasionally heavy lake snow that will extend across the Buffalo metro area. Snowfall rates will range from a half to 1.5 inches an hour, and this should promote snowfall amounts by daybreak Thu up to 8 inches from the Buffalo Metro area to near Corfu with lesser amounts extending northeast to western Monroe county. Snow to water ratios will be on the high side as they often are in LES events with ratios of 15-20:1, resulting in greater accumulations. Have kept mention of lightning for sites within a 20 miles or so from the lake (source of instability) as -10c isotherm will be some 3-4kft off the sfc. Blowing snow will be an issue at times on Wed night in open areas with wind gusts to 40-45 mph in the evening trending down to 30 mph or so by daybreak Thu. The plume of snow should generally remain locked in place through the day Thu though it could waver from time to time. The cap will come down a bit to around 5kft, so this should lessen snowfall rates to an inch or less. Daytime snow accums for BUF and the immediate Southtowns to about Darien to Batavia should average 4 to 6 inches. If it does get locked in place we could be looking at some bigger totals. But they expect snowfall rates of .5-1.5" per hour. I've never seen thunder snow with those rates. Most thunder snow is 2-3" per+

Biggest event of the season by far for most. Most of New York State would love 6-12”. Looks to stick around for awhile too. No big time warmup for next few weeks.

If we get this in January and we don’t get some decent snow all is lost for upstate.

GEM is a whiff

That is some really cold air on the GFS, bet there are a few arctic fronts that won't be picked up until we get closer as that moves through with some intense squalls.

Latest GFS has a strong band for 36 hours with WSW flow. Storm is far enough offshore to not have too much of an impact.

I haven't seen good thunder snow in awhile, we used to get it all the time. We had one bolt earlier this year that I missed.

We take Wednesday Night Snow showers likely before 8pm, then snow after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow after 10pm. Low around 25. Windy, with a southwest wind 22 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before noon. High near 29. Breezy, with a southwest wind 13 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Thursday Night Snow. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

GFS

RGEM went south with the band

Channel 4 and 7

...Significant Lake Snows Northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario... A strong cold front will plow across western and north central New York late Wednesday afternoon and evening. In its wake...H85 temps will plummet to between -12 and -14c. This will ignite lake induced instability over the 40 deg (+4c) lakes and wake up the slumbering lake effect machine and set the stage for accumulating snows in both the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas. Off Lk Erie...a well aligned 240 flow will become established during the first half of Wednesday night. While the cap will only be 7-8kft of the deck...sufficient synoptic moisture and a 3-5kft thick DGZ should be able to support a single plume of moderate to occasionally heavy lake snow that will extend across the Buffalo metro area. Snowfall rates will range from a half to 1.5 inches an hour...and this should promote overnight snowfall amounts up to 9 inches from the Buf metro area to near Corfu with lesser amounts extending northeast to western Monroe county. Snow to water ratios will be on the high side...as they often are in les events...with ratios of 15 to 20:1 anticipated. This will promote greater accumulations. Have added the chance for lightning for sites within a 20 miles or so from the lake (source of instability)...as -10c isotherm will be some 3-4kft off the sfc. Blowing snow may be an issue with wind gusts to 30 mph or so. The plume of snow should generally remain locked in place through the day Thursday...as guidance is suggesting that the 240 flow will persist. The cap will come down a bit though...so this should lessen snowfall rates to an inch or less. Daytime snow accums for Buf and its immediate srn suburbs to about Darien to Batavia should average 5 to 8 inches. Again...snow to water ratios will be in the vcnty of 15/20:1. Very similar parameters will be found east of Lake Ontario...but as is usually the case...the event will unfold a few hours later.

GEFS

That storm system getting closer to us reduces the LES impacts substantially creates sheer and less residence time.

GEFS GEF

Feel pretty confident that this won't be a blockbuster event, still think 10-20" across Central Erie County. That band Thursday morning should peak around 2-3" per hour.

RGEM

Appreciate you! I’m a equal fan of almost all extreme weather with a little bias towards strong les bands. They are like a drug, I need my fix. Not being able to see my hand in front of my head is just insane! I’m feeling better, went to see a neurologist to try to find out why I passed out unconscious in November, he ruled out kidney stones so still have no idea why I don’t remember 5 mins of my life. It might be seizures, but never had one before. I had an MRI of my brain last week and going over with doctor in a few weeks. MRIs are not fun I’m pretty claustrophobic so it was rough.