BuffaloWeather

Picked up 3.2" since Sat night here, 18.1" on the season. Feels like mid winter.

I'll be at the game!

GEM has another strong LES event next weekend

Giant fluff bombs https://www.nittec.org/cameras/?cid=205

Many times in early season events the winds can be out of the west and the band can go pretty far north. This is due to thermal troughing in addition to convergent winds with land interaction. Check out this loop from Nov 2014, winds were out of the west, but look at the shape of the band. This happens quite a bit in LES events off of Erie.

GFS with another great run strong band from late weds into friday morning. Highest totals just south of Buffalo but remember lake temps are quite warm.

I was looking at that one in 79 had to go look at the book to find it.

Alright Timmy I'll give you one more shot, don't screw it up.

Looks like they updated the Forecast discussion Mid-level trough and sfc low will approach the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday. 12/02 guidance suggests that the main cold front will cross the area with little fan fair Wednesday morning (not much precipitation). However, as the aforementioned low draws near Lake Huron by days end a secondary sharper front is advertised to plow east across Western NY. Much colder air, to the tune of -14C/-16C at H850 is advertised under cyclonic SW flow to then channel up Lake Erie. This will likely induce a lake response beginning first off Erie and then the same will occur a bit later off Lake Ontario. BUFKIT profiles suggest that there will likely be sufficient moisture extending through most of the DGZ along with equilibrium levels in the neighborhood of 6-7K feet. One other thing to note, it will become quite windy with gust up to 40 mph, especially NE of the lakes through Wednesday evening. At this point, confident enough that there will likely be accumulating lake snows ENE of the Lakes beginning Wednesday evening into Thursday to mention it in the HWO.

Tim has quoted me 50 times without a response, I don't think he got the hint.

-15 850s with good moisture and well aligned flow but it barely spits out any QPF.

NAM not impressed

Look at that LES band off Erie.

wolf would make a good mod he knows how to stay level headed.

Just saw KBUF even capitalized the word significant. Much colder air following the passage of a strong cold front Wednesday afternoon will bring about the possibility of SIGNIFICANT accumulating lake snows to the Buffalo Metro area Wednesday evening into Thursday.

I'll create a new thread for the LES once we get closer, still too far out.

wow wolf ive never realized that thank you.

18Z GEM has about 26 hour stationary band, pretty good sized synoptic storm and then run ends but looks like LES continues with meadering winds

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Much colder air following the passage of a strong cold front Wednesday afternoon will bring about the possibility of accumulating lake snows to the Buffalo Metro area Wednesday evening into Thursday.

Just got a look at 18Z GEM. I would hand draw that run. 0% chance of happening

Utilizing entire lake, there is no ice anywhere on Huron which is rare into January.

Lek coming in with the Jedi post. Now @Thinksnow18isnt going to sleep well rest of the week.

Last few frames of rgem are similar to euro so I wouldn’t get your hopes up yet