BuffaloWeather

18Z GEM has about 26 hour stationary band, pretty good sized synoptic storm and then run ends but looks like LES continues with meadering winds

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Much colder air following the passage of a strong cold front Wednesday afternoon will bring about the possibility of accumulating lake snows to the Buffalo Metro area Wednesday evening into Thursday.

Just got a look at 18Z GEM. I would hand draw that run. 0% chance of happening

Utilizing entire lake, there is no ice anywhere on Huron which is rare into January.

Lek coming in with the Jedi post. Now @Thinksnow18isnt going to sleep well rest of the week.

Last few frames of rgem are similar to euro so I wouldn’t get your hopes up yet

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Pronounced cold advection around the south side of a trowal is evident across WNY by early Thursday morning. H85 temperatures drop like a rock into the -12 to -14C range through the day with large scale moisture secluding in the surface to 850 hPa layer around the trowal and over Lake Erie. Soundings suggest impressive lake induced instability, some synoptic moisture remaining, and a fetch of the entire lake to work with through the day Thursday. Likewise, GFS and Canadian Global wind fields favor confluent flow down the length of the lake with a long axis of the lake band likely to come into WNY somewhere near Buffalo for at least a solid portion of the day Thursday. This is the time to watch for potential significant lake effect snow accumulations in the metro Buffalo area. The same things can be said for the Watertown area on the east end of Lake Ontario...just lagging about 6 hours. Wind fields wobble a bit Thursday night and suggest a bit of a southward amble of both lake bands. This occurs while the next wave is set to move through the Great Lake. The GFS is far deeper and faster with the mid-level reflection of this system than the Canadian and ECMWF. In fact, the 12z runs of the ECMWF and Canadian really indicate little variation on the track of the surface low with this system to our southeast Thursday night and Friday as is moves from eastern Kentucky toward the NYC area. This places our area solidly on the cold side of this system, however the best deformation and attendant ascent remains to the SE of the area. As such, PoPs were increased to likely for snow during this time, however the best forcing/accumulations will likely pass to our SE. Further, the GFS really does almost nothing with this system, and it in fact doesn`t even develop the wave until it passes off shore. Another period of lake effect snow showers follows the Thursday night and Friday system before large scale troughing starts to erode over the region. This signifies moderation of the cold air by next weekend in advance of the next system to affect the area.

Gfs would be major les event for Buffalo metro. 24-30 hours of stationary band. Euro switches the wind direction pretty quickly leaving a marginal event with quick moving bands.

Yeah feel bad for him I think he has some CTE issues.

When the weather starts costing the bills games I’m voting for a dome.

Huge game today, just come out with a W anyway possible. I'll be at the game next week to clinch division and the first playoff game.

Lake enhanced moving in.

Some good data to play around with on this website https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps/ytd/202111?products[]=nationaltavgrank

December is not included in these rankings which would likely boost it into the top 5.

Rochester seems too low, doesn't inspire much confidence either. Majority of Northeast had a top 3 warmest year on record, Boston had its warmest. What are the chances Buffalo and Syracuse have broken thermometers in which Mets at the Buffalo recording station said its fine? https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/2021-was-bostons-warmest-year-on-record/2603147/

Still too far out right now. Probably wont have any confidence until Tuesday night into Weds. GFS has nothing for the storm Friday, GEM brings it into our area. Just crazy model differences.

GFS has a nice 3 lake connection next Monday. Air is pretty dry but still could be a decent band. A lot of times with the really cold air we're seeing in the Globals we won't be able to pinpoint the arctic fronts until a few days away as the high res guidance gets into range.

Yeah over 12 hours of a very intense band over Metro it then sinks into southtowns for 12 hours and then slides back north.

It really is incredible. Came out of no where within 72 hours. Just goes to show you how bad models have been.

2021 yearly review. Global warming is very real and is changing more rapidly than I first imagined.

Synoptic snow is lame. It snowed for 12 hours and we got 2". We will see 2-3" per hour in LES bands later this week.

It looks like winter, about all I got

GEFS for next week, lots of spread.