BuffaloWeather

Channel 4 and 7

...Significant Lake Snows Northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario... A strong cold front will plow across western and north central New York late Wednesday afternoon and evening. In its wake...H85 temps will plummet to between -12 and -14c. This will ignite lake induced instability over the 40 deg (+4c) lakes and wake up the slumbering lake effect machine and set the stage for accumulating snows in both the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas. Off Lk Erie...a well aligned 240 flow will become established during the first half of Wednesday night. While the cap will only be 7-8kft of the deck...sufficient synoptic moisture and a 3-5kft thick DGZ should be able to support a single plume of moderate to occasionally heavy lake snow that will extend across the Buffalo metro area. Snowfall rates will range from a half to 1.5 inches an hour...and this should promote overnight snowfall amounts up to 9 inches from the Buf metro area to near Corfu with lesser amounts extending northeast to western Monroe county. Snow to water ratios will be on the high side...as they often are in les events...with ratios of 15 to 20:1 anticipated. This will promote greater accumulations. Have added the chance for lightning for sites within a 20 miles or so from the lake (source of instability)...as -10c isotherm will be some 3-4kft off the sfc. Blowing snow may be an issue with wind gusts to 30 mph or so. The plume of snow should generally remain locked in place through the day Thursday...as guidance is suggesting that the 240 flow will persist. The cap will come down a bit though...so this should lessen snowfall rates to an inch or less. Daytime snow accums for Buf and its immediate srn suburbs to about Darien to Batavia should average 5 to 8 inches. Again...snow to water ratios will be in the vcnty of 15/20:1. Very similar parameters will be found east of Lake Ontario...but as is usually the case...the event will unfold a few hours later.

GEFS

That storm system getting closer to us reduces the LES impacts substantially creates sheer and less residence time.

GEFS GEF

Feel pretty confident that this won't be a blockbuster event, still think 10-20" across Central Erie County. That band Thursday morning should peak around 2-3" per hour.

RGEM

Appreciate you! I’m a equal fan of almost all extreme weather with a little bias towards strong les bands. They are like a drug, I need my fix. Not being able to see my hand in front of my head is just insane! I’m feeling better, went to see a neurologist to try to find out why I passed out unconscious in November, he ruled out kidney stones so still have no idea why I don’t remember 5 mins of my life. It might be seizures, but never had one before. I had an MRI of my brain last week and going over with doctor in a few weeks. MRIs are not fun I’m pretty claustrophobic so it was rough.

Yeah I'm quite weird when it comes to what I cheer for with weather. In any season but winter I want lots of heat, humidity, and sun. In winter if its not going to snow I usually cheer for sun/warmth. Cold/dry is the absolute worst pattern unless there is already a good base for skiing/boarding. Will never be a fan of extreme cold, 25-30 degrees with frequent snows would be my ideal winter pattern. How was the game yesterday?

The models are spitting out more QPF for Ontario than Erie. Has better moisture over Ontario.

Don't get me wrong I love the snow, especially big LES events. I grew up playing ice hockey on frozen ponds with my dad. With temperatures the last decade its tough to do, nothing freezes anymore. They used to have the winterfest at delaware park and ice skate on the water with hockey games. The warm winters virtually canceled that event.

Hey now. I think I'm one of the only ones here who ski, snowboard, and play ice hockey all winter. Not to mention winter hikes. What good is snow if you just look at it outside?

If the jackpot is over your head you won't have to chase.

what a storm that was.

That storm system will determine how long this event last. Lots to be ironed out but feel pretty confident the strongest band will be overnight weds into thurs morning 1-2" per.

No Idea most likely the NAM as its higher res 18z RGEM

That's only through 7 pm too.

Nice pocket of -16 850s showing up in latest NAM

High winds and strong LES bands don't really occur very often. Something to keep in mind, especially weds night and overnight thursday when winds are strongest.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ...Winter storm watches issued for potentially significant lake snows Wed night and Thu... Deep upper low aloft gradually opens up as it lifts across southern Quebec. At the sfc, 995mb sfc low over Upper Great Lakes slowly weakens while reaching Ottawa Valley on Wednesday night before exiting to the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday. Wednesday starts off quiet but then primary cold front arrives mid to late aftn. Expect swath of rain/snow quickly switching to snow as H85 temps drop off to less than -8c by late aftn. Once the front goes by, much colder air, down to -14c at H85 sweeps across Lake Erie and later in the evening across Lake Ontario. Water temps on both lakes sitting around 40F/4c so there will be more than ample over-water instability for a lake response into Thu. Even as main sfc low is well to the east by Thu, cold air pouring across the wide open lakes leads to lake induced troughing persisting through most of Thursday over the lower Great Lakes. Result of the low then the lake induced trough is a persistent SW 240 flow Wed evening through most of Thu. Convergent and well- aligned sw flow will support plumes of lake effect off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. BUFKIT profiles continue to show inversions 6- 8kft which is certainly not at the top end of significant lake effect events, but majority of DGZ will be within the lake convective layer so SLRs will be higher, likely reaching toward 20:1. This combined with more reasonable and superior performing Canadian model QPF results in several inches of lake effect maximizing Wed night through Thu morning off both Lake Erie (Metro Buffalo toward Southtowns) and Lake Ontario (northern portion of Jefferson and Lewis counties). During this time snowfall rates over an inch per hour are likely. One other thing to note, it still looks quite windy with gusts up to 40 mph, especially NE of the lakes through Wed night before diminishing on Thu. Winds this strong will result in considerable blowing and drifting snow. Though there are signals that beyond Wed night, primary plume of snow off both lakes will waver slightly, enough snow accumulation and impact from blowing snow to hoist winter storm watches northeast of both lakes. Watches begin on Wed evening (except midnight east of Lake Ontario) and go through early Thu evening. This is for the core of where biggest impact will be. Eventually more headlines (mainly advisories) will be needed on the edge of where the watch headlines are at present. Otherwise, Wed look for temps to peak in the upper 30s to low 40s then rapidly fall off Wed evening. Temps will then be found in the 20s by sunrise Thursday and not change much at all through the day. Later Thu into Thu night there are still differences on how far west low pressure developing over the southeast CONUS will track. Though the heaviest portion of that system likely stays toward Mid Atlantic should be enough forcing/lift and moisture wrapping back into the colder air to result in some light snow, with lake enhanced snow possible east of the lakes. Increased pops to categorical for all areas to cover it at this time. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Lake effect snow will likely continue east of the lakes Friday as seasonably cold air continues to flow across the lower Great Lakes. Additional accumulations will likely be tacked on during this time. There is some uncertainty in how long the broad troughing lingers over the Great Lakes, which will affect not only the persistence of lake effect chances as we move into the weekend, but also how long the cold air hangs out over the region, and how quickly ridging returns to the area.

@Thinksnow18 waiting for KBUF updated forecast discussion

This is where KBUF expects the band to start initially.

Possible still too far out, wind direction many times is a nowcast event.