BuffaloWeather

NAM was the best model for this event.

NWS says band is locked in place until after midnight. Another 12 hours to go. They say it likely intensifies later tonight. I'll be chasing all night!

Updated FD: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Lake effect band that was slow in developing off Lake Erie with minimal amounts through 5 AM this morning *quickly* developed 5AM to 7AM and has been very intense since then with multiple hours of 3" per hour rates observed in the Buffalo Metro. Band wavered north earlier across Northtowns toward the border of Niagara county, but then quickly settled back to its current locked in position Buffalo downtown to the Buffalo Airport and to Akron and Pembroke in western Genesee county. BUF VWP shows well-aligned 240-250 flow and inversion heights around 7kft. As we suspected a couple days ago, SLRs have been quite high well over 20:1 as all the bulk of the convective layer above cloud base resides within the DGZ. Model soundings and output underplayed the higher SLRs. No change to large scale in terms of synoptics with departing trough aloft this morning and sharpening trough crossing the Ohio Valley tonight that eventually helps develop a coastal low toward daybreak Friday. At the sfc, lake induced trough remains lined up across Lake Ontario to western Great Lakes through tonight. Over-water instability more than sufficient with 850mb temps around -14C (with the lakes about +3C). The details... Off Lake Erie... Based on radar and VWP trends, SW flow 240-250 persists through early afternoon. A bit of shear in convective layer and some lowering of inversion could cut down on band intensity after 1-2 PM, Still though, with such high SLRs, several inches of snow will still occur through the afternoon hours. Totals essentially since 530 AM this morning are already pushing a foot at the Buffalo airport and other locations in central the Buffalo Metro in the Downtown to airport to Pembroke corridor. Winds in lake convective layer backing some mid to late aftn may push the main focus for the band back across the Northtowns and toward Erie/Niagara county line. Trough across the Ohio valley this evening will then increase synoptic moisture and likely to cause lake snows to intensify before winds shift to the west behind this trough late tonight, likely not until midnight. Thus the band will continue to focus across the Buffalo metro area this evening before shifting southward to the Western Southern Tier late tonight. Off Lake Ontario... Snow has been more widespread much of this morning, but sharper convergence band is beginning to develop. Mesoscale guidance shows this band getting better organized through late afternoon so that seems on track. A very narrow band across northern Jefferson County will likely extend to the northwest corner of the Tug Hill as well (Carthage/Copenhagen). Thus far, snowfall rates generally have been under an inch per hour, but expect these to increase rest of today with snowfall rates of 1-2 inches an hour can be expected. Lewis County remains in the warning, however it`s important to note that there will not be much snow at all across the southern half of the county. Weakening winds will cause snow to contract closer to the lake later tonight. Increase in synoptic moisture in advance of a trough will maintain lake snows which will likely clip Jefferson County at times. At this time, storm total forecast off Lake Ontario remains pretty much in tact.

Where is this?

Visibility at airport lol Visibility 0.13 mi

Airport getting 3"+ per

Sloan Cheektowaga

4 hours and 25 minutes to go. I've been staring at my clock getting zero work done.

Band is getting stronger over the water but its moving too far north too quickly. The NAM showed this the last few runs. It got it into grand island

Band is widening and strengthening as some moisture gets added from the west. Looks like a slight wobble north.

Buffalo and Cheektowaga

Cheektowaga

That's just the daily. If you look at records of most recording stations there are many days with low totals. 1/6 must have not had a big storm on it.

KBUFs forecast of 6-12" is about to bust in the next 15 minutes with an entire day to go.

Walden Ave

They deserve it. I've been jackpotted here so many times the last few years.

If I have that right KBUF received 3.4" in the last hour.

Kbuf at 9.8” as of 10 am

New SWS ...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF GENESEE AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES... HAZARDS...A lake effect snow band which can rapidly reduce visibility to less than a quarter of a mile. This lake effect snow band is producing extremely heavy snow at the rate of 2 to 3 inches per hour. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 1001 AM EST, a lake effect snow band was over Buffalo extending northeast toward Pembroke in western Genesee county. The lake effect snow band was nearly stationary.

Smh

rotate that photo and send it into KBUF.

Airport

Looks like strongest returns are in the middle of the band instead of the northern fringes like last few major events.

Snow totals: Someone is getting 2 feet+ out of this. Kbuf is under heaviest returns right now, likely at double digits already. I don't think the bands moves much until later tonight. ...Erie County... Depew 9.0 in 0934 AM 01/06 42.91N/78.70W NWS Buffalo 6.5 in 0858 AM 01/06 42.95N/78.72W Buffalo 5.5 in 0926 AM 01/06 42.89N/78.86W Wales 2.2 in 0700 AM 01/06 42.74N/78.59W West Seneca 2.8 ENE 2.0 in 0700 AM 01/06 42.85N/78.70W Cheektowaga 2.7 NE 2.0 in 0700 AM 01/06 42.94N/78.72W East Concord 2.0 in 0821 AM 01/06 42.56N/78.64W Glenwood 1.0 SE 1.5 in 0700 AM 01/06 42.61N/78.65W Boston 2.5 NE 1.2 in 0700 AM 01/06 42.65N/78.70W Clarence Center 0.2 ESE 1.0 in 0645 AM 01/06 43.01N/78.63W Hamburg 0.4 WSW 0.5 in 0700 AM 01/06 42.72N/78.84W Hamburg 2.0 N 0.5 in 0708 AM 01/06 42.75N/78.83W Boston 1.5 NE 0.5 in 0730 AM 01/06 42.65N/78.72W Orchard Park 0.5 in 0808 AM 01/06 42.76N/78.75W Tonawanda 2.1 ESE 0.2 in 0700 AM 01/06 42.97N/78.84W