BuffaloWeather

Probably start posting here for now until another thread worthy event pops up. We will create individual threads for big LES/Synoptic events and post here for general weather discussion. Still looks good for wolf

Yeah Buffalo gets its seasonal totals with 1-2 big events like we saw yesterday. Rochester is synoptic/lake enhanced but what makes them get more than Buffalo yearly is the teakettle events off Ontario, they really add up quick with high ratios. Syracuse is a better location for synoptic being closer to the east coast storms and the recording station being north Syracuse they do well with NW flow events when it hits them.

There is a poster in Vermont who sometimes gets even higher ratios than we do off the lakes. I think its Jspin. I've seen him post 1:50 many times, I wonder what his record is 1:60?

Same. I also like the app on the apple store called "MyRadar". It shows Canadian radar and the entire great lakes in one loop. You're able to see upstream trends, wind direction, and moisture that radarscope doesn't allow. I highly recommend everyone to download as it provides things that radarscope cannot.

Nov 2014 had cloud tops at 20k feet, definitely not normal for a LES event. It's more common to get higher cloud tops in early season events as the temperature disparity is greater early on.

Wind shear

NW flow events are often 25-35:1 as predominant temps during NW flow events are colder than W/SW flow events. W/SW flow events average around 1:18-1:22 on average. I saw an event last year where Rochester got 1:43 ratios with pure fluff bombs.

Cassadaga got 16" today, Fulton got 13"

RGEM slames you wolf, has potential but I don't think it will last long enough. Still going to be some epic stuff at your place early next week.

The last week of it would be, the rest is serviceable

A good setup for those south/southeast of Ontario. These really cold airmasses are not always good as they many times lack moisture. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ...Arctic blast with possible accumulating lake snows Monday and Tuesday... Highly amplified pattern will engulf the CONUS during this period with a mid-level ridge over the Western U.S and a deep trough over the Great Lakes region. Cold Canadian air will continue to pour in across the eastern Great Lakes on Monday then an Arctic front arrives late in the day. 12Z/07 guidance suggest that with the Arctic front there could be a brief but intense band of snow with the front. Behind the Arctic front, 850 hPa will plunge down to -22C to -30C across the area by Tuesday morning. That said, as sfc temps fall off wind chill values will too with values of -25F or lower possible east of Lake Ontario Monday night and early Tuesday morning. With the Arctic airmass there will also likely be some accumulating lake snows ESE of the lakes but limited due to the dry airmass and shorter fetch with WNW flow. After Tuesday, temps moderate fairly quickly as southwest flow develops across the region. It`s possible on a southwest flow that another plume of lake effect snow develops to the northeast of the Lakes, but confidence at this point is low. It`s possible that the incoming deep shortwave may provide too much of a southerly flow for the lake bands of snow to form. Thursday a weak alberta low will track near our region bringing chances for widespread, but light snowfall. Friday, another Arctic front approaches the region with increasing chances for snow showers.

EPS

Looks like a brief warmup next weekend, ENS still all over the place with lots of run to run changes. The last few days of the GEFS get it really cold across the Great Lakes with a great pattern

Some decent snow by the airport

You were right Steve. 3” already tonight

Someone SE of lake ontario should cash in on Mon/Tues.

No chance.

That's from the storm system+orographic lift over the hilly terrain south/southeast of them.

City is still getting hit hard. I'm not sure if anyone measures at any of the stations downtown? 30" totals down there by now. Here is closest webcam to the water I think https://www.nittec.org/cameras/?cid=501

Full radar loop

Yeah it says I'll get 8-12 and I have 1" so far today lol

Snow globe downtown today

My favorite picture tonight.

I think I got 1" today storm total.

I wish you luck. I tried for the last hour and its not easy.