BuffaloWeather

When the RGEM comes in hot but all the other models show 2"

For all you snow depth weenies whatever does fall looks to be on the ground for several weeks. The warm up Sunday looks quite muted now. We've had the grass covered here since Saturday. Still have high hopes for a great January for all.

Agreed. My call yesterday texting Devin was 22" max 2-3 miles south of airport.

I just watched a bunch of episodes on disney plus the other day. I used to watch this show everyday after school.

Yeah looks good 10-15" with 1-2 spots getting 20". I don't know why everyone is down on this event, its a pretty good one. Some years like two years ago we go the entire year without one good band. Look at this LES season... literally zero bands over my place and the city as all the events were trash for Erie. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2019-2020&event=A

The NAM has a more WSW flow for entire duration of event. A brutal forecast with that low passing to SE and the shortwave to the NW. One of the more difficult LES forecast in awhile. Can understand why KBUF is holding off so long. The event starts tomorrow afternoon, less than 18 hours away.

The HRRR is one of the worst models for LES, its last 48 hour run was at 18Z It went from the farthest north with the band to the farther south in 6 hours...It's really only useful for severe weather outbreaks. Toss that thing as far as the Icon.

Point and click for KBUF which kind of justifies my above post. Wednesday Night Snow likely before 7pm, then a chance of snow showers between 7pm and 8pm, then snow after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 9pm. Low around 24. Windy, with a west wind 21 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Breezy, with a west wind 13 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow. Low around 20. West wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

I just want a few claps of thunder and lightning caught on video. By far my favorite meteorological phenomenon.

Tom Niziol, worked at KBUF for 30+ years and IMO the best lake effect met in the business. I'm friends with him on FB. Lake-effect Snow Discussion for WNY... Evening update for the lake-effect snow tomorrow. I included the hourly NAM 3km model animation from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning. This is a tricky event but there is a lot of evidence to suggest this band will start just south of Buffalo Wednesday afternoon after that cold front comes through. It will then intensify and lock itself in over Buffalo, and meander from the Southtowns up north into the Northtowns Wednesday night through Thursday. There some suggestion that Thursday for a time at least we will see a very narrow intense band of snow which will wreak havoc on travel in and around Buffalo. Later Thursday afternoon the band should swing north of Buffalo into Niagara county as a weak embedded short wave comes through and backs the wind. Finally, Thursday night the band will drive quickly south. This will be a fairly significant event but not a major storm, producing anywhere from 8-18" of snow with a few whiteouts at times. I would not count out parts of the Thruway closing for a brief time late Wednesday night into Thursday late morning. You have all been there before, so just hunker down and wait until this system gets through the area Friday.

I actually think jackpot is Buffalo out to just south of airport. I think winds go SW most of Thursday and so does Tom Niziol. Not expecting more than 6-8" here.

As the title of this thread says, the tughill curse is too strong.

Wednesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 23. Windy, with a southwest wind 22 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Thursday Snow. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before 9am. High near 28. Breezy, with a southwest wind 13 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow. Low around 21. West wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Yeah I lived in Orchard Park/Blasdell border for that event. I think my total was 28-30". I remember quite a bit of thunder and lightning with that event even though the rates were not too high. Could be similar to this one.

For instance the NAM was putting out 3 feet totals for the first Nov 2014 event and max totals were 65", almost double the model output. But there are even more events that forecast feet that end up being duds. That's why LES is so much fun. However, 40-45 Mph winds, a low cap, and meandering wind directions make me think this has more of a chance to be a dud then overachieve.

Any mention of thunder snow says to chase it, but I agree. Maybe wait until the band forms as we should know pretty quickly how strong it is. Thursday morning looks like the best bet for highest rates.

Yep I remember that day vividly. We got stuck overnight at school. So much fun. The NWS never expected the band to stall over the Metro like it did. They also didn't expect the rates that were in that band.

We know LES cant be predicted perfectly. I remember in Nov 2000 the forecast was 4-8" and we got 25" in like 6 hours.

Long range still looks good for normal/slightly below normal temps for rest of January. Probably a bunch of lake effect spread throughout the region, not seeing much synoptic.

Our friend @tombo82685first good LES event?

Latest HRRR run blast metro Buf

...Significant Lake Snows Northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario... Strong cold front plows across western and north central New York by Wed evening. In its wake, H85 temps will plummet to between -12 and -15c on Wed night. This will ignite lake induced instability over the 40F (+4c) lakes and set the stage for accumulating snows in both the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas. Off Lk Erie, a well aligned 240-250 flow will become established during the first half of Wed night. While the cap will only be 7- 8kft, a 3-5kft thick DGZ should be able to support a single plume of moderate to occasionally heavy lake snow that will extend across the Buffalo metro area. Snowfall rates will range from a half to 1.5 inches an hour, and this should promote snowfall amounts by daybreak Thu up to 8 inches from the Buffalo Metro area to near Corfu with lesser amounts extending northeast to western Monroe county. Snow to water ratios will be on the high side as they often are in LES events with ratios of 15-20:1, resulting in greater accumulations. Have kept mention of lightning for sites within a 20 miles or so from the lake (source of instability) as -10c isotherm will be some 3-4kft off the sfc. Blowing snow will be an issue at times on Wed night in open areas with wind gusts to 40-45 mph in the evening trending down to 30 mph or so by daybreak Thu. The plume of snow should generally remain locked in place through the day Thu though it could waver from time to time. The cap will come down a bit to around 5kft, so this should lessen snowfall rates to an inch or less. Daytime snow accums for BUF and the immediate Southtowns to about Darien to Batavia should average 4 to 6 inches. If it does get locked in place we could be looking at some bigger totals. But they expect snowfall rates of .5-1.5" per hour. I've never seen thunder snow with those rates. Most thunder snow is 2-3" per+

Biggest event of the season by far for most. Most of New York State would love 6-12”. Looks to stick around for awhile too. No big time warmup for next few weeks.

If we get this in January and we don’t get some decent snow all is lost for upstate.