BuffaloWeather

Grand Rapids broke a daily record for snow at 7.2” so far and counting. Be surprised if this event busts.

Snowflakes in air already at gym

Can see the subtle shortwave in northern Michigan providing some moisture and sw winds. IMG_3148.mp4

Temp just dropped from 43 to 38

Last runs before the fun starts. Max total right near KBUF

We have many of those things you've mentioned along the lake erie shoreline. They used to hold ice hockey tournaments and winterfests on Lake Erie when the lake used to freeze (which used to be every year)... We also have this massive ice rink downtown that makes the wintertime and christmas extremely festive

It's always good to look upstream to see what will be our weather 6-8 hours later. Just ripping in Grand Rapids with heavy snow for several hours. I think Buf NWS is wrong that our max hourly rate is 1" per.

Forecast for airport Tonight Snow showers likely before 10pm, then snow after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 9pm. Low around 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Southwest wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow, mainly before 4am, then a chance of snow showers after 4am. Low around 20. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible

I might be ready to go a little more bullish based on whats happening over Michigan. Our band will be 2-3 times stronger than theirs will be. Heavy Snow Blowing Snow Freezing Fog and Breezy 22°F Humidity 92% Wind Speed SW 23 G 32 mph Barometer 29.52 in (1000.8 mb) Dewpoint 20°F (-7°C) Visibility 0.25 mi Wind Chill 6°F (-14°C)

Here is this model, not sure what it is, Canadian?

Great map.

I was thinking sooner. Should be a good band going by late tonight. The front is almost at Detroit

Grand rapids Snow Blowing Snow Freezing Fog and Breezy 24°F -4°C Humidity 88% Wind Speed SW 22 G 30 mph Barometer 29.52 in (1000.5 mb) Dewpoint 21°F (-6°C) Visibility 0.50 mi Wind Chill 9°F (-13°C)

You can see a bunch of shortwaves move through that will likely change the wind directions. It's the ideal pattern for Upstate for constant snows if the cold air being modeled comes with it.

I'll be taking an afternoon nap and chasing all night.

Feeling really optimistic after looking at Michigan, we will have a stronger band then they do and thats 1"+ per hour already.

12Z RGEM, Metro and northtown special

When the RGEM comes in hot but all the other models show 2"

For all you snow depth weenies whatever does fall looks to be on the ground for several weeks. The warm up Sunday looks quite muted now. We've had the grass covered here since Saturday. Still have high hopes for a great January for all.

Agreed. My call yesterday texting Devin was 22" max 2-3 miles south of airport.

I just watched a bunch of episodes on disney plus the other day. I used to watch this show everyday after school.

Yeah looks good 10-15" with 1-2 spots getting 20". I don't know why everyone is down on this event, its a pretty good one. Some years like two years ago we go the entire year without one good band. Look at this LES season... literally zero bands over my place and the city as all the events were trash for Erie. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2019-2020&event=A

The NAM has a more WSW flow for entire duration of event. A brutal forecast with that low passing to SE and the shortwave to the NW. One of the more difficult LES forecast in awhile. Can understand why KBUF is holding off so long. The event starts tomorrow afternoon, less than 18 hours away.

The HRRR is one of the worst models for LES, its last 48 hour run was at 18Z It went from the farthest north with the band to the farther south in 6 hours...It's really only useful for severe weather outbreaks. Toss that thing as far as the Icon.