BuffaloWeather

Its too early for these calls the high res isn't even in range yet.

Yeah, without cold air the lakes are useless except in winter when I watch those beautiful sunsets over the lake.

GEFS

CIPS analogs as steve mentioned earlier, some big dogs in there. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&rundt=2022010300&map=thbCOOP72

GFS and Icon have no synoptic event.

This map is through 7 am Thursday. The band goes into Friday Evening.

Talk to me on thursday.

That map is through 7 am Thursday....The band goes into Friday afternoon, that calls for 3 buns

RGEM

Textbook band

NAM has 850s at -12 to -16 the entire event.

Absolute paste bomb down in mid atlantic today reports of 11" so far and lots of trees and power outages. https://chart.maryland.gov/video/video.php?feed=7e01ec5800f700d700437a45351f0214

NAM still not showing much in terms of LES

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ...Potentially Significant Lake Snows Wednesday night and Thursday... Sfc ridge to our south departs off the Mid-Atlantic with developing southwest flow across the Lower Lakes Tuesday night ahead of the next system. Dry and not quite as cold with lows in the 20s to low 30s by daybreak Wednesday. Mid-level trough and sfc low will approach the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday. 12/02 guidance suggests that the main cold front will cross the area with little fan fair Wednesday morning (not much precipitation). However, as the aforementioned low draws near Lake Huron by days end a secondary sharper front is advertised to plow east across Western NY. Much colder air, to the tune of -14C/-16C at H850 is advertised under cyclonic SW flow to then channel up Lake Erie. This will likely induce a lake response beginning first off Erie and then the same will occur a bit later off Lake Ontario. BUFKIT profiles suggest that there will likely be sufficient moisture extending through most of the DGZ along with equilibrium levels in the neighborhood of 6-7K feet. One other thing to note, it will become quite windy with gust up to 40 mph, especially NE of the lakes through Wednesday evening. At this point, confident enough that there will likely be accumulating lake snows ENE of the Lakes beginning Wednesday evening into Thursday to mention it in the HWO. Otherwise, Wednesday look for temps to peak in the upper 30s to low 40s then rapidly fall off Wednesday evening. Temps will then be found in the 20s by sunrise Thursday. Pronounced cold advection around the south side of a trowal is evident across WNY by early Thursday morning. H85 temperatures drop like a rock into the -12 to -14C range through the day with large scale moisture secluding in the surface to 850 hPa layer around the trowal and over Lake Erie. Soundings suggest impressive lake induced instability, some synoptic moisture remaining, and a fetch of the entire lake to work with through the day Thursday. Likewise, GFS and Canadian Global wind fields favor confluent flow down the length of the lake with a long axis of the lake band likely to come into WNY somewhere near Buffalo for at least a solid portion of the day Thursday. This is the time to watch for potential SIGNIFICANT lake effect snow accumulations in the metro Buffalo area. The same things can be said for the Watertown area on the east end of Lake Ontario... just lagging about 6 hours.

RGEM has best stuff just south of Buffalo I'd probably move that line 4-5 miles north.

GFS still looks fantastic for LES event. Watches probably go into effect this afternoon or tomorrow morning as event starts Weds night.

Picked up 3.2" since Sat night here, 18.1" on the season. Feels like mid winter.

I'll be at the game!

GEM has another strong LES event next weekend

Giant fluff bombs https://www.nittec.org/cameras/?cid=205

Many times in early season events the winds can be out of the west and the band can go pretty far north. This is due to thermal troughing in addition to convergent winds with land interaction. Check out this loop from Nov 2014, winds were out of the west, but look at the shape of the band. This happens quite a bit in LES events off of Erie.

GFS with another great run strong band from late weds into friday morning. Highest totals just south of Buffalo but remember lake temps are quite warm.

I was looking at that one in 79 had to go look at the book to find it.

Alright Timmy I'll give you one more shot, don't screw it up.

Looks like they updated the Forecast discussion Mid-level trough and sfc low will approach the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday. 12/02 guidance suggests that the main cold front will cross the area with little fan fair Wednesday morning (not much precipitation). However, as the aforementioned low draws near Lake Huron by days end a secondary sharper front is advertised to plow east across Western NY. Much colder air, to the tune of -14C/-16C at H850 is advertised under cyclonic SW flow to then channel up Lake Erie. This will likely induce a lake response beginning first off Erie and then the same will occur a bit later off Lake Ontario. BUFKIT profiles suggest that there will likely be sufficient moisture extending through most of the DGZ along with equilibrium levels in the neighborhood of 6-7K feet. One other thing to note, it will become quite windy with gust up to 40 mph, especially NE of the lakes through Wednesday evening. At this point, confident enough that there will likely be accumulating lake snows ENE of the Lakes beginning Wednesday evening into Thursday to mention it in the HWO.