JenkinsJinkies

DC went between 1996 and 2018 without having snow in November. I don’t even know the last time they’ve had October snow. Seriously though I expect this Niña to give us a very busy thread with a perpetual hr 384.

Storms fizzle when they come from the west and when they come from the south. They don’t fizzle when they come from the north though. Strange how down-sloping doesn’t happen over those central PA hills.

I was on the beltway from Baltimore Co to Howard Co and got a grand total of 10 drops, not all at once either… This event is a dud isn’t it?

in fairness I posted this before the 18z update.

So I noticed something. We seem to be repeating 2016 and 2017 just in reverse order. Last year started with a horrible winter and ended with a more tepid December and rainfall totals for DCA were more or less the same as 2017’s. This year started with a warm winter that had snow, had intense summer heat, and a wet start that turned dry. Given that we’re going into a nina and with how recent rains have busted we could very well see similar precip levels to 2016 (which was 31 in). DCA currently sits at 29 in. YTD and with the current rate it’s not impossible for us to only get 2 inches of rain for the remainder of the year.

So what caused this to near totally collapse over the past day? And why is it that these drying trends never reverse even if there's still enough time to do so?

Wait if this is a winter warmup then we should test out the 2nd thread rule at some point.

September torches happen here. Like last year, and 2016, and 2017 had a back half torch.

It’s weird that they’re getting a torch and we’re not.

Is there a real chance that there may not be any more rain this month?

Saturday’s rain has pretty much vanished. QPF got walked back so much we’re now in the lowest rainfall total that isn’t entirely dry. GFS shows we might not get anything at all until the 2nd half of the month, possibly as late as the 20th or beyond.

Is there a real chance the area will wind up with less than an inch of precip for the month?

We're at the hurricane season equivalent of a perfect track rainstorm on MLK day.

You know, Sep. 2019 had less than half an inch for much of the area. Is there anything long range suggesting that we could be this dry for September?

What caused Saturday's rain to get walked back this much?

Last year and 2020 would like a word.

That's why I said November.

So you think we'll be getting a "what went wrong" write up in November?

Watch it play out like Sep 2017, it starts off cool but then if flips around mid month. Then we have temps in the 90s on equinox.

Divide snow by 3 and multiply temps by 3.

If Harris wins I might attend her inauguration. I’m willing to bet that I won’t even need a jacket that day, or at the very most I’d need a windbreaker.

Worst season will be the one that makes the Saffir-Simpson scale officially add a Category 6.

Massive dud, what caused this one to fail?

When did the PDO go negative?

So I believe we’ll have another below normal season. Question is though will we have another 19-20 or 22-23 where the metros fail to get even an inch? Maybe we’ll luck out and get like 3-4” in the metro for the season. Let’s be real, our next shot at a huge snowstorm is 26-27 since Niñas tend to happen back to back.