griteater

Nino 3.4 up again to +1.39 on the AVHRR daily for Oct31

Nino 3.4 is up to +1.23 on the Oct30 reading. Modoki index up to +1.03. I realize that ENSO is best viewed over a monthly to several months time period, but I'm just reporting the daily numbers.

Nino 3.4 jumped up from +0.54 on Oct28 to +0.98 on Oct29 on the daily AVHRR SST data, which is more in line with NOAA's recent weekly reading of +1.1. Lots of warmth shown here up and down the central to central-west Pacific (top image). Warmest temps in the warm pool are located just west of the dateline (bottom image)

To me it’s just another indicator of a legit El Niño. The somewhat persistent low level westerly wind anomalies are impacting the ocean via the west to east surface current. The warmest water (not anomalies) is always to the west, so any west to east current is indicative of warming in the nino regions.

Latest graph...

Yeah, he took a little grief about those temperature contours - https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1052989466330259457

Each one will update next month

IRI Model Forecast Dec-Feb Precip

IRI Model Forecast Jan-Mar

IRI Model Forecast Dec-Feb

NOAA Forecast for Jan-Mar

NOAA Forecast for Dec-Feb

The NSF Model map

Doing a quick tally, and looking at winters in which the (AO+NAO)/2 was negative, and when the QBO at 45mb averaged for Jan-Feb was distinctly positive or negative, I have 14 winters with +QBO and 10 with -QBO. That's for the QBO at 45mb. Some do QBO analysis at the 30mb level. For this winter, we are likely to see the transition from -QBO to +QBO at 45mb in the Jan-Feb timeframe. Here's today's winter outlook posted from BAMWX.com. They have a cold outlook, but they are balanced and will go warm if it warrants - https://twitter.com/Met_khinz/status/1052596019635081217

The Euro for Dec-Feb was posted earlier in the month, but here's a different view of it at 500mb (1st image). Second image is the EuroSip which is an ensemble of the Euro, UKMet, Meteo France model, CFS, and JMA

At 30mb, it should be up to around zero for October (i.e. transitioning from negative to positive), and continue climbing positive thru winter. At 50mb, it should remain negative for at least the first half of winter.

October release of the JMA has a trough in the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. sans the deep south. Aleutian Low is weak and west. Max -VP anomalies (CHI) are west of the dateline in the tropical Pacific. SSTs increased only slightly and show a weak El Nino.

For Nino 3.4 Aug to Oct model releases: UKMet Aug: Moderate Nino Sep: Weak Nino Oct: Moderate Nino Jamstec Aug: Weak Nino Sep: Moderate Nino Oct: Strong Nino

Here's a new version of the ENSO Base Chart (SST) with all El Ninos since 1950 included, and with the new September value in for this year...

Last month, the Euro trended the El Nino a little weaker....for Oct, it trended it a little stronger

Here's the Euro Seasonal (Dec-Feb) Last month, the Euro trended the El Nino a little weaker....for Oct, it trended it a little stronger