griteater

12z CMC

12z UKMet looks similar to GFS and CMC on the early maps

12z GFS moved away a bit from its idea of a stronger lead wave moving through TN. 12z CMC looks similar to GFS. Both look pretty good in your area Buddy. CMC has kind of been between the farther north GFS and weaker, farther south Euro/UKMet camp, and may be a good middle ground. For NC, it looks too warm on the front side of the storm, except for maybe the northern mtns...then there could be some changeover for some areas depending on how the backside wave evolves.

00z ICON that was mentioned and the 00z UKMET both nailed it with the stronger backside wave and secondary sfc low...impressive NAM is also digging deep with the wave at the end

Difference between the GFS and the Euro/UKMet is quite comical. 18z GFS has a big snow in the northern mtns into SW and central VA...much stronger upper level trough dropping down into TN/NC/VA

South is fine, but weak is not...need a strong upper level system to get the cooling. Euro has 32 deg sfc temps in south GA on the morning of Mar 15th

12z Euro is south and weak like UKMet...tough combo to beat

12z CMC looks a little warmer than the GFS out front, but it also flips to some snow before the system departs (as upper wave rolls thru)

12z GFS closes off the wave through TN. Similar to last run, but maybe a little better. Looks good in northern mtns into SW VA...and it tries to flip to snow toward the end east of the mtns before departing

12z NAM has your scenario...runs sfc low from S Bama to Wilmington and flips north central NC over to some snow in heavy precip...snow into southern and central VA as well

GEFS trend loop. Davis Strait positive anomaly & Newfoundland low haven't really changed. Gulf of Alaska low & western ridging have trended west. TN Valley trough is more separated and farther south. Best case scenario is for that backside wave to close off strong and sink farther south into Dixie in the Mar '09 mold.

Yeah, 18z was a central/northern mtn special right there. A deep diving upper wave makes sense with the western ridge spike and cutoff low east of Maine. -NAO and a south trend...we've seen it before

UKMET says hi

Is HM Henry Margusity? Anthony Masiello on Twitter. He used to post on AmWx as "HM". He's top notch with met knowledge and forecast ideas.

I appreciate that, thanks. I try to learn every day/year. Grew up a Carolina fan. Jordan and Worthy playing Sampson and Wilson in Charlottesville, doesn't get any better...but I went to State and have converted. Hopefully we can see one more good storm before it's over. Normally, strat warnings don't lead to cold weather in the east during La Ninas, but HM makes some points that go against that this year (favorable MJO and poleward propagating -AAM; the former would aid in western ridging; the latter would aid in slowing the jet in the polar regions for potential blocking). We can only hope and dream at this point though, ha

No one will give a crap until the model snow maps are loaded with snow, but reading thru the tea leaves, Anthony M (HM) seems to like the idea of some heavy blocking setting up in the last third of Feb due to a big stratospheric PV split, favorable MJO, and poleward propagating -AAM. You know, all the unicorn factors. Anyway, get ready

Only the Euro can save us

The Euro weeklies are pretty much a complete flip from the previous run...they are warm from mid Feb to mid Mar. All of the ensembles have a warmer look now in week 2, so we've got some work to do to see a colder looking pattern. To me, the -VP anomalies associated with the MJO are progressing as expected. Plenty of time for things to change, but we're not currently seeing the -EPO/+PNA type pattern in the long range ensembles you would expect with the MJO progression. The stratospheric PV that is getting displaced into Canada could be an issue, I don't know. Earlier in the winter, we had a stratospheric high over NW Canada and AK that was coupled with the troposphere, which led to the arctic cold waves being sent down into the conus. We don't have that same type of coupling in the near term forecasts.

FYI there is a separate thread for the possible Sunday event - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50903-super-bowl-sunday-storm-24-5/

Look how different the pattern in the 2nd half of Jan has been in comparison to the image above

Here's a link to a non-weather model method that also points to some cold periods in Feb (I'm sure some have seen this method before, the LRC) - http://weather2020.com/2018/01/30/weather-extremes-a-super-bowl-sunday-arctic-air-watch/ Basically, the LRC method states that each fall-winter pattern has a repeating cycle, and this year's cycle has been observed to repeat every 44-51 days. Just for Mack, the origin of the method goes back to the Jan '88 storm, lol - "Oklahoma City typically averages 8" of snow each winter. In December of 1987 and again in January of 1988, however, there were snowstorms that each saw 12" of snow. Gary thought that the second storm was so similar to the first that they must be related. This realization was the inception of the Lezak Recurring Cycle, or LRC." So, using this method, the pattern that we experienced in the Dec 27 - Jan 17 period is 'destined' to repeat in a somewhat similar fashion from Feb 12 - Mar 5 (i.e. again, via a 47 day repeating cycle for this winter). Here were the 500mb pattern and temperature departures during that timeframe.

My thoughts on it from this morning - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50522-mid-to-long-term-discussion-2018/?do=findComment&comment=4799251

Tonight's Euro Weeklies look a little better than the last run for Feb. They hold western ridging from roughly Feb 10 to the end of Feb in an ideal location right up the W North America coastline and up through E Alaska with some cross polar flow out of NE Siberia (this matches well with the projected MJO progression)....with cool temp anomalies in the eastern U.S. down thru Florida. They begin to go above normal with temps in early March.

I can understand wishing/hoping for snow down there....but being disappointed, no

GFS bringing another wintry system after that on the following Wed...low in the gulf