griteater

^ It would be right on the 30 yr anniversary

Jan '88 is back bay bee. It's going to trend south right on top of us. This is the one

Yeah work from home has ruined a good snow day

It's looks like both the HRRR and the NAM 3km pivot the precip shield and back-build the trailing large band associated with the upper wave overnight and swing it through overnight and into the AM

You can see on the CC radar a surge of warmth as the snow vs other line races up to I-85 in the upstate and NE from there to Mooresville area. Basically, the atmosphere can feel Mack's warmth coming up from Columbia Looking at the HRRR, it does show this surging warm nose (not to be mistaken with the pre-storm warm bubble) and it hangs in the upstate to CLT corridor until overnight into sunrise unfortunately The benefactor of this surge will be those just to the north of it who are cold enough for snow, maybe Hickory to Morganton to Winston

The 3km NAM has convective shower/thunderstorm cells rolling through SE GA into S SC, so the model is indicating that those storms could rob the moisture transport into central NC...we'll see

GFS and Euro both roll comma head precip through NE GA into the western Carolinas in the overnight to late morning timeframe....should keep the snowy mood going in those regions. This makes sense given that the trough axis is still as far west as the Mississippi/Alabama border at 4AM. It won't fully clear out until that trough axis swings through. Accumulations will be more efficient once the sun goes down...it makes a difference.

My 1-3 call there wasn't enough. My apologies

GSP update, ha... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Friday: No changes. Will address the near term with the new fcst package. Suffice to say the wheels have not fallen off...yet.

I don't know guys, I see temperature issues in upstate and central NC as the bulk of the precip moves through on the Euro. Just as the lowest levels get cool enough in the Triad, the 850 0 deg moves NW right into the Triad (and it is probably warmer above 850). I think the snow maps are interpreting transition areas as all snow. There is a changeover to some light snow in GSP to CLT Fri night and into Sat morning...same for Triad but more of it there. I would want to be in the mtns and northern foothills...we shall see

I do not. Rain with snow possibly mixing in at times is how I see it. Tough forecast, maybe the stars align one time

GFS has a really dynamic look to it for western NC (that's where I was focused - could be in other areas too). From a thermal standpoint, you can see a squeeze play going on as this system develops - the 850 zero degree line is working its way NW and backing right into the cold air in W NC....long duration event on the GFS...ya'll have winter storm warnings in the NC mtns yet? You need them

I have visions of a new lessons learned thread appearing soon

It's a bit too warm near the sfc IMO. I didn't realize the HRRR had warmed when I typed that. That warming makes more sense to me in all honesty

Weird to me that the GFS and Euro globals are warmer than the hi-res HRRR and NAM (GSP to CLT). It's usually the other way around. It being flipped would make sense if we had cold air damming....but we don't * Stands up and flips table *

Gulf sea surface temperatures are above normal. It's going to be a good ol fashioned, slow moving, gulf low with long SW flow moisture fetch. Not a wound up system with convection robbing and splotchy radar coverage...my thoughts anyway

I like 1-3 there

I would go 1-3

That's crazy. GFS has precip from tonight into Saturday aftn for the upstate

Just a follow up to say that a stronger system with stronger sfc low and stronger 850mb wave/low will, in fact, show more warm nosing....this is not much of an issue for Bama and GA, but would be more of an issue as you go east as the GFS shows with a stronger system now.

I mean, it basically always ends up this way right? Frosty, Jonathon, and Big Frosty sad and moping, saying they can't buy QPF, and they end up with the good stuff.....ha, all in fun Buddy - good luck your way!

Interesting there how it shows the strong omega (red bars on left) higher up in the 300-500mb range....indicative of the strong divergence from a very strong jet streak aloft over the northeast

We say "it's a tough call" a lot, but the HRRR and latest NAMs suggest that this is a tough call for the GSP to CLT corridor. Conservative forecast would be to go with rain, with a chance for snow to mix in. The soundings suggest that when the precip is heavy, it could very well flip to snow (I looked at Simpsonville). There is a lot of discussion about the warm nose...but I wanted to point out that the warm bubble east of Atlanta over into the upstate is where there is a pocket of above freezing air in the lower levels of the atmosphere (cold air having a tough time moving in over the mtns). As precip falls and we go toward morning, the sounding shows cooling of this lower level warmth, down to where it could be cold enough for snow. This is different from what is traditionally referred to as a warm nose where warm air is pouring in aloft from the southeast at the 850-750mb levels. In that case, the sounding shows the warmth aloft 'nosing' above freezing as opposed to lower level warmth above freezing. Bottom line: having the above freezing warm layer closer to the ground is easier to overcome than warm air pouring in aloft from the southeast. The text below is the scenario we are looking for here. That is, the 850mb low isn't closed and strong with our storm tomorrow and the warm advection aloft is staying closer to the SE coast than it is pouring inland (source - http://www.wxonline.info/topics/preciptype.html ) "Melting of Snow to Rain" "Melting snow to rain requires latent heat. This heat is taken from the surrounding air. In order to obtain substantial temperature change due to melting, it is necessary to have rather heavy amounts of precipitation falling with little or no warm advection. If this occurs, you can have heavy rain turn to heavy snow as the freezing level sinks downward due to cooling by latent heat absorption. Although this situation can occur, cases of substantial lowering of the freezing level due to melting are relatively rare because the combination of heavy precicpitation without warm air advection is rare."

Birmingham is an area that struggles to get good setups for snow. Good chance IMO that you see some with this system with some light accumulations

I tell you what, my confidence is fairly high that Lake Toxaway is going to see a good wallop of snow from this....hoist the Winter Storm Warnings there Isohume!