griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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It still hasn't moved, hr87-96, torrential rains in NE section of SC into SE NC. It finally kicks west across southern SC at hr99 Sunday morning.
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Euro basically hasn't moved the storm from hr72-87, it's still just NE of Charleston....unreal
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hr72-78, Euro is crawling at a position just NE of Charleston still, right along the coast, still a formidable storm
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By hr72, it has dropped due south out over the open water, then into a position just NE of Charleston, right along the coast
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Thru hr54, Euro is virtually identical to the last run....brings it into Onslow Bay right close to the coast, then moves it west into the Wilmington area. I would expect the surge to be really bad there in Topsail to Emerald Isle given the storm size now
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At hr48, UKMet is right near Wilmington / Cape Fear
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UKMet on the crude maps looks similar to the GFS after hr72....it looks like it is between Myrtle Beach and Charleston at hr72, then moves into the southern third of South Carolina (I don't have the maps before hr72 yet). GFS and UKMet both moved a little south thru South Carolina.
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The GFS is running down the SC coast / just inland of SC coast from hr81-93
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Power Outage forecast - https://twitter.com/JamesBelanger/status/1039888372607721473
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An alternate view of the lack of steering flow (this is 500mb GFS forecast at 6z Sun) - click link for motion - https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/09/16/0600Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-82.92,43.14,667/loc=0.607,24.216
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National Hurricane Center TAFB - "Wave heights to 83 ft were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence." https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657
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GFS Ensemble Trend Loop - strengthening anomaly centers with the trough off Pacific NW coast and ridge over the Great Lakes....so the trend is for more blocking and less steering flow, making the stall scenario as it approaches the coast more and more likely.
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A couple examples of interest Hurricane 5 in 1906 Hurricane 4 in 1913 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_Atlantic_hurricane_season https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1913_Atlantic_hurricane_season
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The modeling is fairly consistent with bringing it into or near the coast in SE NC. After that, with the Euro Ensemble members continuing to trend south over South Carolina (only 1 of the 51 members is now north of Columbia), IMO we are going to see the other modeling this morning continue to move south after the initial approach into SE NC.
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Euro Ensemble is south again. Phil has a trend loop here - https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039796190819188736
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UKMet is Wilmington area (hr72) to Myrtle Beach area (96) to west of Clemson (120) to E Ohio (144)
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UKMet has now moved south. At hr72 it is in Wilmington area. At hr120 it looks like it is west of Clemson, SC, near GA/NC/SC triple point. Those are the only 2 hours I have, which I know is weird (still coming in)
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Higher uncertainty given the stall and crawl scenario, but the Euro Ensembles moving south last night and holding today (along with the FV3), taking the system into SC, is pretty telling IMO
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A related post on this - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51511-hurricane-florence/?do=findComment&comment=4986166
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It goes both ways though. If the latest Euro and FV3 are correct, Raleigh NWS will have to change their maps
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Euro has it slowly moving inland across southern SC Sun morning
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At hr111, Euro has drifted SW to Charleston area
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Euro would be epic flooding in SE NC
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Euro has it still stuck on Wilmington....24 hours now from Thurs night to Fri night....now drifting off the coast due south of Wilmington at hr96.
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Euro is a bad look for SE NC coast. It hasn't moved from hr66 to 81...looks bad for rain, surge, wind there from Wilmington to Topsail, up to Emerald Isle
