griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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Holy hell...a view of upper level divergence for the ages on that GFS run
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https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51790-december-8-10-2018-winter-weather-threat/?do=findComment&comment=5048178
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That 00z GFS run was member e2 and e12 from 18z
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Oh yeah, that'd get us some good snow on the ground...the crawling wave is a low chance scenario though unfortunately
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UKMet looks similar to its last run...maybe a tick south on the early maps. It's quite similar to the GFS track but doesn't have the closing off wave and the 850 0 deg climbs up to near the NC/VA border at the height of the storm
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wow, this would yield some big time totals....very, very rare to see this kind of look at h5 down here
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Substantial backside snow with the crawling big h5 wave
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GFS looks pretty incredible at h5 with a big closed off wave slowly rolling thru the southland
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18z EPS Mean bumped north. More amp with the wave and less confluence over the NE
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But I want the noise ringing from Hattiesburg to Myrtle Beach at this time range! No wiggle room
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Wave is amped up now...not sliding east....should be big in SW VA
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It looks a little cleaner this run with the confluent flow from the wave into the NE trough...stronger high out front
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18z GFS - wave coming in a bit farther south, into baja. Slightly better cold press out front out to 93
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WxBell has the Euro Ens members. You can get the GFS Ens members here https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Go to GEFS tab at the top > Precipitation Products on the left > Ensemble Snow Acc - then use sliding button to scroll thru the images (you can choose different regions on the left too - U.S. / Southeast, etc.)
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It looked excellent at 500mb, we just would prefer to have a sweet cold air mass laid down out ahead of it
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To play devil's advocate, just minor fluctuations with the modeled pattern and features easily yields some widely varying results, especially at this range.
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After a few wobbles north, the 12z EPS mean wobbled south this run. A little less amp on the wave and a little more press with the NE trough
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Big big totals in parts of SW VA again (20-30 inches)
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At 156, it's heavy snow NW of a line from Hickory to Winston
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It pretty much matches the UKMet run to a T
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The wave actually looks really good...closes off over W TN / N MS. Temps are just brutal though, but snowing good in SW VA at 150
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Euro looks quite good with the wave at 500mb, but the temps are a bit of a struggle.
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Overall it's a nice southern sliding wave...temps aren't great overall though
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Euro pretty similar to last run out to 120...low is just SE of Houston...850 0 deg across southern NC
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I disagree
