griteater

By hr72, it has dropped due south out over the open water, then into a position just NE of Charleston, right along the coast

Thru hr54, Euro is virtually identical to the last run....brings it into Onslow Bay right close to the coast, then moves it west into the Wilmington area. I would expect the surge to be really bad there in Topsail to Emerald Isle given the storm size now

At hr48, UKMet is right near Wilmington / Cape Fear

UKMet on the crude maps looks similar to the GFS after hr72....it looks like it is between Myrtle Beach and Charleston at hr72, then moves into the southern third of South Carolina (I don't have the maps before hr72 yet). GFS and UKMet both moved a little south thru South Carolina.

The GFS is running down the SC coast / just inland of SC coast from hr81-93

Power Outage forecast - https://twitter.com/JamesBelanger/status/1039888372607721473

An alternate view of the lack of steering flow (this is 500mb GFS forecast at 6z Sun) - click link for motion - https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/09/16/0600Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-82.92,43.14,667/loc=0.607,24.216

National Hurricane Center TAFB - "Wave heights to 83 ft were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence." https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657

GFS Ensemble Trend Loop - strengthening anomaly centers with the trough off Pacific NW coast and ridge over the Great Lakes....so the trend is for more blocking and less steering flow, making the stall scenario as it approaches the coast more and more likely.

A couple examples of interest Hurricane 5 in 1906 Hurricane 4 in 1913 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_Atlantic_hurricane_season https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1913_Atlantic_hurricane_season

The modeling is fairly consistent with bringing it into or near the coast in SE NC. After that, with the Euro Ensemble members continuing to trend south over South Carolina (only 1 of the 51 members is now north of Columbia), IMO we are going to see the other modeling this morning continue to move south after the initial approach into SE NC.

Euro Ensemble is south again. Phil has a trend loop here - https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039796190819188736

UKMet is Wilmington area (hr72) to Myrtle Beach area (96) to west of Clemson (120) to E Ohio (144)

UKMet has now moved south. At hr72 it is in Wilmington area. At hr120 it looks like it is west of Clemson, SC, near GA/NC/SC triple point. Those are the only 2 hours I have, which I know is weird (still coming in)

Higher uncertainty given the stall and crawl scenario, but the Euro Ensembles moving south last night and holding today (along with the FV3), taking the system into SC, is pretty telling IMO

The MEI update from 9/7 is locked in on neutral... "With the MEI showing ENSO-neutral conditions, four key anomalies in the MEI component fields flag La Niña, compared to only one for El Niño. Key anomalies refer to values in excess of one standard deviation, or one sigma in support of either ENSO phase. Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) denote high sea level pressure (P) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific, southerly wind anomalies (V) to the north of the Equator and south of Hawai'i, and unusually warm temperatures (S and A) northeast of Australia. All of these anomalies are indicators of La Niña. On the other hand, westerly wind anomalies (U) along and north of the Equator from the Maritime Continent to the dateline flag emerging El Niño conditions." "Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI remained flat at +0.13, ending up right in the middle of ENSO-neutral rankings. This means that not a single season has reached El Niño conditions in 2018. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding all cases that departed by more than 0.4 standard deviations in the changes from the previous month as well as three months earlier (April-May), there are eight analogues to the situation this season: 1953,'59,'69,'80,'81,'90,'00, and '03. Six of these cases remained ENSO-neutral, while only one ('69) briefly reached El Niño conditions, and one slipped back into La Niña'00). This confirms last month's assessment that El Niño remains "very unlikely" in 2018." "Compared to last month, the odds for El Niño in 2018 remain very low, potentially joining the previous aborted events of 2017, 2014, and 2012 (except that those actually achieved a few months of El Niño conditions compared to none in 2018)." https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

A related post on this - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51511-hurricane-florence/?do=findComment&comment=4986166

It goes both ways though. If the latest Euro and FV3 are correct, Raleigh NWS will have to change their maps

This is the best the subsurface has looked in a while in terms of the expanse of the subsurface warm anomalies associated with the downwelling kelvin wave. Assuming westerly wind anomalies remain present, this may be the ticket to sneak into a weak El Nino for winter.

Euro has it slowly moving inland across southern SC Sun morning

At hr111, Euro has drifted SW to Charleston area

Euro would be epic flooding in SE NC

Euro has it still stuck on Wilmington....24 hours now from Thurs night to Fri night....now drifting off the coast due south of Wilmington at hr96.

Euro is a bad look for SE NC coast. It hasn't moved from hr66 to 81...looks bad for rain, surge, wind there from Wilmington to Topsail, up to Emerald Isle

At 69-72, it's stalled for the moment with the center just north of Wilmington