The Waterboy

18z GFS looks good too. Amounts slightly less than 12z. 18z NAM is the outlier for now.

18z RGEM

Unfortunately this seems plausible considering the terrain issues. There’s going to be a sharp cutoff somewhere in our area. And then a dry slot on top of that.

18z NAM shifted NW just a bit at hr42

12z GFS pretty much the same as the last two runs. Big event overall.

12z NAM just went bonkers.

The NAM does seem to lose the 2nd wave of snow for Thursday like the 12z GFS did.

00z NAM shifted SE again out to hr57.

00z HRRR Kuchera snowfall at hr48

00z HRRR freezing rain at Hr48

12z Euro further SE out to 60. Should be a good run for us.

Fairly significant shift SE on GFS from 00z to 12z. Pivotal Kuchera maps shows: TULSA 00z - 3.6” 06z - 13.4” 12z - 15.2” JOPLIN 00z - 9.0 06z - 10.1 12z - 12.7 BENTONVILLE 00z - 2.5 06z - 4.6 12z - 9.8 FAYETTEVILLE 00z - 1.8 06z - 4.7 12z - 5.6 I think Chazer just posted the Weather Bell map so the totals might be off a bit but we all get the gist of the SE shift. EDIT: Nice shift SE on the GEFS ensemble too.

12z NAM looks a tick or two SE out to 51. Much more snow in Kansas.

06z RDPS also nudged eeeeveeeer so slightly SE. 12z NAM out to 12 now. Today is the day we really want to start seeing things change back to our favor.

Thanks StormChazer for the maps. Currently I would say the NWS Tulsa map above is the most likely scenario for those of us in NW AR based on current model runs. As most of us have heard before cold, shallow air typically has a very difficult time oozing through the Ozark and Boston Mountains. This begins pretty much at the Benton/Washington County line in Arkansas and struggles to push south of there. The models seem to depict that pretty well with the surface temp projections. I recall previous ice/sleet storms where portions of far NW Benton Co (Gravette) are snow while a few miles SE is sleet. Not sure if any of that is helpful. Unfortunately I’m not super knowledgeable on the 850mb piece of things that JoMo has mentioned a few times so I can’t speak to that part too much. The 18z maps above are marginally better than the GFS was. Looks like there will be a very sharp cutoff for some of us. Those of you in SW MO and Tulsa/north are probably in the sweet spot for more snow accumulations. Let’s hold out hope the 00z runs shift back SE a bit.

Any good news from the 18z Euro? I’m almost afraid to ask.

Definitely not trending in our favor to stay out of an ice storm.

Good to hear the 06z was better. The 00 Euro was definitely the outlier so far. The trend still continues for a major event in our area.

The 00z Canadian is absolutely bonkers for pretty much all of us! The Kuchera snow maps are nuts.

I guess I should educate myself on 850 temps then! LOL!

I could be wrong but I question the GFS precip maps. We will have some warm air advection over the top but I find it hard to believe locations with surface temps in the mid teens to low 20’s have heavy sleet. I don’t recall ever seeing that before. The Euro/CMC colder, more snow solution seems to be more plausible. We shall see…

18z Icon even colder than the 12z run. Heaviest QPF shifted a bit SE into Central/SE AR but snow line also pushed SE. Joplin with a foot at hr120 when the run ends. Tulsa between 7-10” and still snowing.

The last couple of runs of the Canadian push the cold air in much quicker. 12z yesterday at hour 132: Tulsa -37 Joplin - 33 Bentonville -38 12z run today at hour the same time (hour 108) Tulsa - 26 Joplin - 23 Bentonville - 27 12z GFS today at 108 - Tulsa - 20 Joplin- 21 Bentonville - 29 Also, For what it’s worth the 12z Icon is quicker with the cold air too with temps even colder than both the GFS and CMC.

Do you have the 06 Euro?

12z ICON maps haven’t all loaded on TropicalTidbits yet but it looks like a HUGE amount of precip with temps in the teens and 20’s.