Powerball

17 minutes ago, WXMan42711 said:

surprisingly quiet in here for something that, at its surface, looks like a noteworthy day/evening ahead. thoughts on the setup?

Given how lackluster this season has been, my expectations have been shot.

Sod's law...

35 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Really makes you wonder if our seasons are shifting.

The latest 30-year averages did suggest that somewhat.

April and May were slightly cooler while September and October were slightly warmer. 

On 10/4/2021 at 8:36 AM, A-L-E-K said:

it's that time of year, temp barely moving

Thank god for the Sunbelt...

FWIW, I've heard someone mentioned the fall pattern so far is looking similar to 2010.

Of course, if that's the case, I think a lot of folks would be happy with a repeat of the winter that came after it.

On 9/25/2021 at 11:06 PM, RogueWaves said:

October storms NEVER seem to repeat in January whereas November storms have a pretty good history of doing so. Tbh, September storms like we just had are such a rarity/oddity that I can't even guess at our odds of a repeat this winter but they have to be better than an October storm. After nearly 31 years I have returned to my native CWA here in SEMI. I'm exactly in the midpoint of Plymouth-Canton in Wayne cnty just about 8 miles NW of KDTW. Not really a big metro guy, but this works ok for me. Hopefully I've brought a magnet or luck charm or something with me lol. I moved to Traverse 9-5-90, and 2 months to the day I moved-in was greeted with a 15" concrete mixer storm at my new place. Was there in 96-97 for their snowiest winter of record (200+ mby). Then moved to South Bend that summer to escape such madness of endless white, just to rendezvous with blizzards in '98/99/00 there. Went to Marshall in '02 and got both 08-09 and 13-14 a virtual tie for snowiest/coldest winters in that region at an impressive 100" each. Both my parents were city of Detroit natives. I now reside exactly 20 miles west of where my grandparent's home was a century ago. Talk about full circles. Now my own memory of Detroit's "great winters" would include 74-75 with the December monster, 81-82 with at least 20" depth in much of the region, Jan '99 the last time KDTW reported a 24" depth OTG. Then ofc the more recent great seasons including the record-breaking 2013-14. Oh, and KDTX isn't afraid to issue a "watch", unlike my previous office. As for this week's rain storm, a winter version would've been more akin to the April 1886 2-footer than Jan '78, which shafted this area via the WTOD cutting snow totals in half for a few unlucky SEMI counties including Genesee where I was a youth at the time. Winds were still wicked but only worked with 8.5" of new snow and didn't really hold a candle to Jan of '67 for that region. I feel like I've moved to the least snowy place in my life, but obviously Detroit does have it's moments and I'm perfectly fine if another historical something wants to come around this winter. Pulling for SEMI again!  

I didn't know you moved. What brought you over to the Detroit area?

EDIT: Never mind. I see your response above

Incoming for the Detroit area...

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
MIC093-125-155-131815-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0121.210913T1719Z-210913T1815Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
119 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern Oakland County in southeastern Michigan...
  Southern Shiawassee County in southeastern Michigan...
  Livingston County in southeastern Michigan...

* Until 215 PM EDT.

* At 119 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fowlerville,
  moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Fowlerville around 125 PM EDT.
  Howell, Cohoctah and Oak Grove around 135 PM EDT.
  Hartland and Brighton around 150 PM EDT.
  Milford and South Lyon around 200 PM EDT.
  Novi around 215 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Plainfield, Island Lake State Recreation Area, Commerce, New Hudson,
Rose Center, Walled Lake, Conway Township, Parkers Corners, Lakeland
and White Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4283 8436 4280 8392 4278 8392 4278 8375
      4273 8345 4244 8343 4243 8414 4277 8416
      4277 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 281DEG 37KT 4268 8416

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KDK

9 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

Most incredible bow echo I've seen ripping through extreme SON currently:

 

I also had my 13th storm of 2021 this morning, not forecast whatsoever. The last 7 days have been nothing short of wild here, total reversal from the last 5 years of BS!!

Yeah, observing from afar, the Detroit area over into SW Ontario has had quite the severe weather season this year.

Frankly, given the dearth of severe weather here in Dallas this year, I'm kind of jealous (never thought I'd say that).

Complex in MI starting to get that bow echo look.

At first glance, today looks like a really good derecho setup across MI / ON / NY. 

Capping and weak low-level flow are going to be the biggest impediments. 

An interesting setup none the less though with good bust potential.

On 9/10/2021 at 12:50 PM, CheeselandSkies said:

Excessive speed sounds reckless to me.

Not necessarily.

See the Autobahn in Germany, for example.

On 9/8/2021 at 9:34 AM, buckeye said:

Wife and I went up to Mackinaw Island over the weekend.    A few observations: 

1. I thought Ohio drivers were terrible,  Michiganders say, "hold my beer".    Once we got north of Brighton it was like the autobahn.  I was going 95mph and didn't realize it because so was everyone else.   That wouldn't have been a bad thing except for the fact that it would go from 95 to stopped traffic and back to 95 for no apparent reason.

2. Roads were in rough shape...

Sounds about right.

The weird thing though is that while the drivers are like bats out of hell, they're not reckless like in some other places. And they're masters at dodging potholes. 

It is crazy to see that 7 of the top 10 warmest summers in Detroit were in the past 20 years (out of 125+ years of records)...

https://www.weather.gov/media/dtx/climate/Seasonal Reviews/DTX_Summer2021_Review.pdf

And it's been almost 30 years since Detroit has had a top 20 coldest Summer. 

2 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Not sure how I did this lol

Broken clocks...

1 minute ago, Tezeta said:

I make one post asking about  a dry slot and I am dying on a hill? 

It was the follow up post complaining about the weenies, not the post itself. 

6 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

Oof 6 weenies already for my last post…I forgot the #1 rule of amwx is to not be mean to the storm

It's not about being mean to the storm.

We got possibly a Cat 5 cyclone barreling towards a large population center and you're concerned about a relatively inconsequential dry slot depicted on radar. 

Let's be more choosy about our priorities and hills to die on. 

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

I think its called panties in a bunch. Was just making astute observations and my posts get removed.

Would you like to speak with a manager?

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

I caught it too before it was deleted, lol.

21 hours ago, lookingnorth said:

It still hasn't happened in OKC. It would be the first time since 2004 if we make it the whole summer without hitting 100.

How many other years, besidea 2004, has OKC not hit 100*F+?

DFW has only had 6 so far, and they all occured in that late July / early August period.

I now know better than to say it won't happen for sure, especially with the help of subsidence behind Ida next week, but it is getting increasingly less likely that DFW will see any more 100*F+ days this year.

Those storms moving through MI kind of fell apart as they moved into Detroit. It seems residual wake subsidence from the storms last night / this morning is the reason why. 

Probably still producing some modest outflow wind, but the lightning is virtually all gone and the returns aren't nearly as ominous. 

45 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This has the looks of a possible derecho 

So much for that, lol.

4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

lol 

Looking forward to the deluge of new Karen videos.

Oh boy...

CDC to reverse indoor mask policy, saying fully vaccinated people should wear them indoors in Covid hot spots

Despite the extremely slow start, Metro Detroit has seen has fairly active severe weather season this year.