Powerball

19 hours ago, Powerball said:

It seems Dallas actually has a fair shot at seeing a bigger snowstorm this Sunday than most of you have seen so far this season...

Welp, never mind. 

It seems Dallas actually has a fair shot at seeing a bigger snowstorm this Sunday than most of you have seen so far this season...

32 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Good point and something to watch out for in DFW. I am not overly bullish on DFW and north. I am thinking Waxahachie, Corsicana, Athens, Tyler and Nacogdoches will be the sweet spot with amount tapering off quickly north of I-20 and areas to the south dealing with rain for some time. Below is the map I put together last night. I think it is still in decent shape though amounts may taper off even more sharply along and north of I-30.

FWIW, I think those amounts are going to end up being low on the western part of your map.

21 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

06Z and 12Z GFS are just an example of the GFS's warm bias, they are 5-10 degrees warmer at the surface than other models otherwise the GFS is the same as the other models. We know we will have a strong upper low crossing the state Sunday with a cold air mass already in place. This upper low will generate a coastal low which will throw a lot of moisture into the path of the cold upper low. I am expecting a 150 mile wide swath of heavy snow across Texas generally along and south of I-20 though that swath could shift 50 miles north or 100 miles south. If you are in the core of the heavy swath though I don't see you missing out totally at this point. We are talking about a potential historic snow event for north Central and East Texas with 0.5-1.5" QPF in areas where the temperature profile suggests primarily a snow precip type.

I'm not even concerned about thermals. 

It's the storm's track and intensity I'm more worried about. 

Gonna need the trough to dig further than what the GFS shows, and for it to come through with at least a neutral tilt for any appreciable snows in the heart of DFW. With the dry air advecting in from the NE gradient around the arctic high, there's going to be a sharper northward cut off than the models are suggesting. 

The 00z GGEM's depiction was just about the best case scenario.

12z GFS has gone back towards a more suppressed look.

8 hours ago, Chinook said:

Models are coming into better agreement with the storm system moving south from the Rockies into Texas. It is kind of strange to see this. Most of the time, when a model shows snow for Dallas, it doesn't really happen. Over the weekend, temperatures will be close to freezing around and south of I-20 with 850mb temps of possibly -2C to -4C. There are a variety of model solutions on snow totals, so this should be interesting to see how this turns out.

As good as things are looking, with the shortwave still way out in the middle of the ocean and several days out, it's best to keep expectations in check. If anything, I'm still worried about a miss just to the south. The 06z model runs and 12z NAM were definitely a step backwards.

But yes, this has the potential to be a big one. Probably as good of a setup as you can get for North/Central TX. 

1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Long range nam so take it with a grain of salt but it's way south with the 500mb low. Has sfc low at 84hrs just off shore from Houston. Crazy

1 hour ago, Kaner88 said:

If we still had the DGEX it might have had the low in Cancun

Would definitely love to see the next few frames on the DGEX right now, for personal reasons. 

It would be funny and sad if I somehow got more snow out of this storm than Chicago...

29 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

When does that happen anymore in this sub, for winter or severe? A big dog is forecast for days AND it actually pans out as such.

GHD 2011 was the last time there was a major snowstorm that held serve for an entire week. 

I would definitely have to plan a trip home if the 00z GGEM happened on Christmas day.

About as perfect of a blizzard setup for Detroit as you can get.

17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

if a storm of that type happened in this subforum, even a watered down version, you'd have some mighty unhappy posters and some ecstatic ones lol. A death band of 35-40" with a pedestrian foot just a short distance away. 

Although Philadelphia only saw a general 3-6", it was literally puking snow during that front-end thump (lasted about 2 hours). 

Cotton ball sized flakes too.

Just now, Snowstorms said:

Sometimes a little luck is all you need. That's great! Now that your permanently WFH, are you back in Michigan? Or still in Texas? 

No plans on moving back to Michigan. 

I'll probably be in Texas for a little bit, then move someplace else for a different experience. The 2nd biggest perk for me with WFH is that you don't have to anchor yourself down to any one location.

8 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

That's great, congratulations. It's been tough for a lot of people this year and I'm glad you were able to land something quick. I remember at my last job I was laid off for 6 months, just wasn't getting anything. Hope all is well. 

Thanks!

It was really luck (right place, right time). I had fully expected to be out of work for several months or longer. 

1 minute ago, Snowstorms said:

I been WFH since March LOL. 

I was WFH (temporarily) since March at my last job.

Got laid off in October and 1.5 months later managed to land a permanent WFH job.

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Philly had 0.3" of snow TOTAL last winter and a winter storm warning now lol. that doesn't sound like pissed 

I'm going off the model trends.

Just 48 hours ago, they were expected to see at least a foot of snow. But if you buy the latest model runs (which have been trending warmer and NW), they'll be lucky to get a couple of inches. Meanwhile, areas 60 - 80 miles NW of the city could be pushing 2 feet. 

3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Had the chance to leave yesterday, missed the boat.

I would no joke pay $500 to have that flight put back on the manifest today.

Things could be worse though.

As bad as your situation is, I would be pissed if I were a weenie in Philly right now. 

1 hour ago, mimillman said:

Damn. Just damn.

Had it all figured out. 6:30pm flight into Logan today. Was going to take advantage of WFH and chase this one down.

Flight was just cancelled. The Gods owe us one here. Geez.

You should have left yesterday, definitely a $$$$ move. 

Now that I'm WFH as well, I might start doing the same thing for big/historic storms.  

00z NAM suggests the bleeding at least may have stopped, as it's inched towards an earlier phase and shifted westward. 

Just now, Snownado said:

But even in places in the mid atlantic, they get excited over just a little snow.... Seems like in the midwest it takes more for people to get excited.

It's true.

Even the Mid-Atlantic can go several years without seeing much (if any snow), and then they get hit with those massive Nor'easters.

Seeing 1-3" or even 3-6" of snow is pretty "meh" for much of the Midwest since it happens frequently. It's when you get the double digit amounts that excitement levels shoot through the roof.

1 hour ago, Snownado said:

Kinda sad when there's a winter storm moving in and there's 2 hours + between posts. Even the TN Valley forum is getting more activity and they won't see as much snow.

It's all relative.

Down south, they get thrilled about seeing any amount of snow. 

1 minute ago, nwohweather said:

I still have my doubts on it not going west of Toledo. So rare to see strong lows not cut up towards Fort Wayne with big snows for Chicago and Milwaukee this early in the season. I cannot remember in my life an “app runner” in November. Maybe 2002?

They have been plenty of apps runners in November. They were just glorified cold rain storms.

That said, I'm hedging my bets on the near-miss phase and strung out POS to the east. .

10 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Baby stepping towards the inevitable strung out garbage 

You can't fight fate.

Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

THIS! Let's keep politics out of this forum. NHC would upgrade to cat 3 if it was cat 3. I think our time is out for any upticks. Regardless this is a high end cat 3 and will have major impacts that extend well inland because of very fast forward motion. 

The NHC upgraded Michael to a Cat 5 post-mortem. 

No reason why they wouldn't do the same for Zeta if conditions were met. 

49 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Obviously smoky in the upper levels today. I guess to many it looks like a veil of cirrus. The sun should have that tell-tale red glow again towards sunset.

 

Yep. DTX just released an update about this:

000
FXUS63 KDTX 141411
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1011 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020

.UPDATE...

Mid/upper level trajectories have taken the smoke plume from nrn
California and the Pacific Northwest into the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region. Satellite representation and visual observation suggest
the high altitude smoke overhead is quite opaque. So even though some
of the morning strato cu has been and will continue to dissipate,
afternoon sun is going to be very filtered through the upper level
smoke. This seems to suggest more or less filtered sunshine today as
opposed to outright sunny skies. So an update will be issued to
increase sky cover today. Otherwise, the going forecast looks
reasonable.

8 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Looking more severe as the front enters southwestern ON, could be some storm damage west of London and also around Cambridge ON recently based on radar, and the front is going to hit the Toronto area around 0500h to 0600h EDT. Came on looking for any reports, I guess it's sleep time there but people will be waking up to vigorous thunderstorms soon. 

Nothing severe here, although looking at the radar, the line of storms definitely exploded SW-ward like ripping off a band-aid.