Powerball

It may not be much of a consolation, but FWIW, even with the northern track progged, it still looks be to cold enough for the precip to be all snow for you guys ahead of the front.

It could be a decent thumping too (quick 3-5"), as the models are showing some decent mid-level lapse rates.

11 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

Starting to worry about it coming north of even here... Wouldn't that be typical.

Personally, I'd say it's far more than typical for these things to come north of Puerto Rico.

This one should be a lock for that.

10 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I lol when the point forecast algorithm does this. Can you say wintry mix?

Wednesday

A chance of rain and snow before 2pm, then a chance of rain between 2pm and 3pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

Wednesday Night

Rain likely, possibly mixed with snow before 7pm, then rain likely between 7pm and 3am, then a chance of rain and snow after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

 

Thursday

A chance of snow before 7am, then a chance of rain after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

The last 2 seem reasonable, but that 1st one is definitely funny.

50 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

You just dont get a lot of bang for your buck here. Given the amount of cold this part of the country gets, and with the huge Gulf to the south supplying copious amounts of moisture, I would figure 50" per year would be easily attainable around here. The East Coasters get less cold but often get more snow. Plus they get more sunshine in winter too, which is a plus in my book. And before someone tells me that if i dont like it here i should move to the east coast, the answer is NO. Ive visited the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and I find midwesterners to be nicer. I will say that I do like southerners better but maybe thats because I am from the south. 

Another thing to keep in mind too is that weather occurs in cycles.

I know you've only been there a short time, but the past few years up there in general have been nothing to write home about in terms of big storms/extreme weather because the overall pattern has not been favorable (I'm sure at least partially due to the solar minimum). I think you just arrived to the region at an unlucky time for a weather enthusiast.

That said, things were really on and popping around here during the roughly 2006 - 2011 time frame, while east coasters were practically about to jump off cliffs because the big storms kept cutting NW of them. Specifically, during the 2007 - 2009 window, there was virtualy significant weather for us to track every single day, whether it was severe weather, LES or a snow/ice storm. And I'm sure the region will experience a similar pattern again at some point in the future.

20 hours ago, zinski1990 said:

no, It sucks here. We never get a good widespread storm anymore. I bet it was up there though for GHD 2011 and some in 2014 but I haven't seen one since joining a few years ago

One thing I do miss is when I would get hit by a decent/severe t'storm or experience impressive weather (I.E. record-breaking heat), or (more often than not) when I would bitch about a weather event going wrong, there would always be other posters in the Detroit area or the general IL/OH/IN/MI/WI area who came along within hours and respond with something (even if it was nothing more than a smart ass remark from certain individuals).

Down here, majority of the time, I'm literally saying "Bueller...? Bueller...?", because the folks in the Carolinas don't really give much of a **** about GA weather.

You may think it sucks, but the grass isn't always greener.

13 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

There are way many more people in the midwest than there are in the Mid-Atlantic, yet the Mid Atlantic has double the number of posts. Guess there arent a lot of weather weenies in this part of the country. Even when there isnt a big storm on the horizon,  that forum is pretty active.This forum is a snoozer compared to even the southeast, which also has over 100,000 more posts than the midwest.

I disagree with the bolded.

90% of the Southeast forum is filled with people from NC/SC. And while I'm sure most of them are fine people and I don't mean to be rude about this, in large part the extent of their discussion is either whining about the Summer heat/humidity or hyping up snow (which is crazy to me given their climo, but to each his/her own).

In Georgia, a state of over 10 million, there's a grand total of 3 semi-active posters in that subforum and then 1 additional poster who only posts occasionally, 3 of which are in Metro Atlanta (the 3rd fastest growing place in the country with 6 million people and counting) and 1 of whom is a mod. And even those users are more often than not MIA when there are severe weather events in the Summer (which is their perrogative). I have yet to see any posters from MS/AL/TN/FL.

The Midwest subforum isn't perfect, and I can't speak on the Mid-Atlantic forum, but at least the geography of the posters in this region is evenly spread throughout the entire region and there's always an active group of posters tracking severe weather events AND winter storms. There are also more meteorologists on this subforum too (although, admittingly, some of them are too quiet and the others may not be the most professional).

IMO, the real reason GRR won't go with a warning is because they fear the backlash (being accused of overhype) if they hedge their bets on the model guidance and the totals end up falling short. In all fairness, it is still a marginal set up for their CBD.

I know, it seems silly, but that's the only logical explanation I can come up with (versus the one they gave).

6 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Heres GRR thoughts on opting out of a warning locally. 

 

That's certainly a "different" justification for not issuing a warning.

Well damn! A ton of lightning right now between I-88 and I-80 in Illinois...

https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en

Quite a bit of lightning right now around Springfield and Peoria, where the precipitation is filling in.

A bit off-topic, but I have to imagine it's not often that we see a November where 2 major winter storms impact the US east of the rockies.

9 minutes ago, ORDIOWPITMSP said:

Looks like rip city at my alma mater 

http://webcam.iowa.uiowa.edu/live/view.htm

Nice!

Rockford looks to be reporting all snow, while DeKalb is reporting sleet.

9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Let's get one thing straight.  NOTHING supplants 12/1/06.  

Not even the S**** fest of 2011?

Is there a reason why the NWS has not yet implemented the same point-specific warning system they use for severe weather with winter weather headlines?

For example, when a severe t'storm is poised to affect an area, instead of issuing a warning for the entire counry, an oddly shaped warning is issued only for the portion of a county will be impacted.

One thing to watch out for in the Detroit area is how well/long does the upper level low remain closed off, and if it at least tracks over/south of the city.

If it does remain closed off and the aforementioned track does happen, could see dynamic cooling flipping over the precip to snow much more quickly and producing a few surprise inches.

12z GFS/NAM/GGEM are all close to showing this outcome.

GRR went with a WWA for only 3-5". 

This upcoming system looks interesting. It actually seems like it could be a hybrid of 12/11/00 and 12/1/06, IMO

I was in town all week for the holiday, but will be leaving tonight. I will admit though, part of me will be jealous if a EURO-like solution happens.

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 We ended up with 5" here and 6" at DTW. Rain was not an issue but there was a dry slot.

Yep. The main thing I remember was the intense snowfall rates and huge flake size once the dry slottibg finally passed. Picked up 3" in 1.5 hours.

13 hours ago, RobertSul said:

Well if Detroit had 8 million people crammed into it, with an early snow storm occurring in mid-October by climatological comparisons, receiving 6+ inches when they were supposed to get 1 or 2, with the heaviest snow falling during the evening commute that catches /millions/ off guard, then I think there might be similar issues. 

And not just any type of snow either, but rather 6"+ of cement, which is a b**ch to do anything in.

Just ask the Deteoit Lions who had to play in it against the Philadelphia Eagles not too long ago.

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

You guys speak of this November overcast as if it is unusual . Jokes aside my brother lived in Chicago for 4 years and moved back this summer and he did note how much cloudier it is here in late Fall and Winter.  Its something I'm used to and I'll be honest with you, I actually enjoy it because its another sign of the impending Winter. The Great Lakes has very cloudy Winters, especially November and December, but it has never once bothered me, especially since we have very sunny summers. Through the 1st 16 days of November the average sky cover at Detroit has been 9.1 out of 10.  According to the sky cover scale of clear, partly cloudy, and cloudy, November so far has had 0 clear days, 2 partly cloudy days, and 14 cloudy days.

Now be nice! 

Snowless in Carrollton *IS* from Georgia (Carrollton is about a 20 minute drive from here). For a person that's used to the Sun Belt, it is unusual.

18 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Yeah I am so over this constant overcast. And not a snowflake to show for it here. I feel like I am in Seattle. Where is the sunshine ? Today was supposed to be Partly Sunny and ended up being cloudy. Tomorrow was forecast to be Mostly Cloudy and now they changed it to Cloudy. They are forecasting "Partly Sunny" on Mon and Tues but I have a feeling as it gets closer it will change to Mostly Cloudy or Cloudy.

Did I not warn you? 

Might as well get used to the constant overcast skies. I don't miss that *at all.*

Welcome to the Great Lakes region, lol.

On 9/27/2018 at 1:36 PM, BK Rambler said:

Latest dates for first <60 temp:

ATL  10/8 (1911, 1925) only five years in total occurring in October - ATL has yet to reach 60 this year

CLT 10/5 (1881) only three years total occurring in October - note CLT hit 54 on 8/24 this year so curious about Brad P's statement

Greenville, SC (not GSP) 10/13 (2005) only instance in October (note GVL was 61 and GSP was 59 the morning of 8/24 this year)

Raleigh (not RDU) 9/25 (1906) - note Raleigh was in the fifties 8/24 & 25 this year

 

Not sure about the other sites, but ATL's record was broken. It didn't fall below 60*F (with a low of 59*F) until 10/11. 

Also, ATL's first negative departure day since 8/25 was 10/12, with a departure of -2*C.