Powerball

This is going to be one hell of a muggy Summer...

DFW's turn, at last...

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1783885165040898066?t=UZ34pRVGQExybStBOOrYcA&s=19

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1783876960210526242?t=5PL2oi86xFM9zM08U0ZmOg&s=19

For DFW, as daytime heating gets under way, there *MAY* be a very brief window during the late morning / early afternoon hours today where some tail-end charlies could backbuild and become surface-based with the enhanced low-level covergence, but it will be threading the needle with the better upper-level forcing/dynamics/shear quickly shifting NE.

1 hour ago, Quincy said:

Seems quiet in here. I take it not much happened today? I saw a few landspout and brief tornado reports, but storms were mainly hail producers. Could see early morning storms (Friday AM) pass from NW Texas into southern Oklahoma, but the tornado threat seems very low. Could see some heavy rain, gusty winds and hail, though. 

There has been a shit ton of large hail reports (not surprising given the ample elevated instability and deep layer shear), but per usual with the setups this season, the extensive mid/upper-level cloud cover steadily streaming in from.the Pacific (thanks to the STJ) limited the extent of surface-based instability/cap erosion.

Things could still rip further south in OK/TX along the dryline as the shortwave shifts eastward and the LLJ ramps up, but it will primarily continue to be a vivd lightning, flash flooding and large hail threat.

Perhaps things will be different in the Fall or next Spring as we transition into a La Nina ENSO state (and the STJ loses its grip).

6 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I was under the impression that we were actually currently moving out of El Nino toward neutral and then La Nina (hence also the universally very high-end forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season)?

Fleeting was probably a better word.

In addition to the increased cloud cover limiting insolation needed for sufficient surface-based instability, there's also some correlation during an El Nino with the weaker surface wind fields limiting the extent to which warm/moist air from the Gulf advects northward (unlike during a La Nina). I wouldn't expect models, especially those that aren't convection-allowing, to pick up on these details several days out.

The ENSO state is only one of many factors, but possibly one that shouldn't be ignored/dismissed as a significant factor for the underwhelming season thus far.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/el-niño-and-la-niña-affect-spring-tornadoes-and-hailstorms

10 hours ago, cstrunk said:

It seems to me like the SPC is highlighting risk areas in Days 4-8 more than in the past. That used to be more of a big deal, as it seems like they would only do that for days with a much higher certainty of some kind of severe weather outbreak, and those would end up being more like true "Moderate" risk type days (which are much more infrequent). Now they are highlighting those areas and they don't end up being huge outbreaks, just standard "Slight" or "Enhanced" risk type days. But not significant, like you mention. I think social media is making it worse. There's so many variables and failure modes, that confidence can't be that high at those ranges to start highlighting "Super Outbreaks" headlines that we've seen from some.

I suspect the fleeting El Nino is also having an effect.

The seemingly persistent high/mid-level cloud cover advecting in from the Pacific with the unrelenting subtropical jet puts a cap on the diurnal temp swings, thus the extent of instability, in these setups.

Now that the crap is behind us, the next 2 weeks are looking pretty solid. Not necessarily a blow torch, but definitely warm with temps in the 70s/80s.

The projected blocking over the Atlantic / Greenland is a little concerning, with respect to the risk of an occasional backdoor "polar" front, but the -PNA should help to keep much of its influence to the NE of Texas.

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Apparently record low (24) set at Dubuque today. Didn't think we were in any kind of noteworthy cold pattern for doing that.

Sadly, pretty impressive for what some declared to be cold shot overdone by forecast guidance.

Although a new record wasn't technically set due to a midnight high of 63*F, DFW spent much of the daylight hours yesterday in the upper 40s & lower 50s. The official record minimum high was 53*F.

Hopefully, after today, we're done with the 50s/60s until next "Winter."

I will say, this is some of the fiercest (and loudest) thunder & lightning I've seen in a long time for elevated t'storms.

GEM has a massive cold bias. So I can say with confidence 30s aren't going to happen in DFW, especially with the extensive cloud cover expected

Beyond that, I hate cold weather and I'm ready for Summer. So frankly, I'm dreading the temps over the next few days and personally have no interest in discussing it.

For others, I suspect there's not much interest in discussing it because it's way too cold for severe weather (whatever thunderstorm activity there is will be elevated) yet still way too warm for wintry precipitation.

Thrusday seems to have some promising severe potential for DFW, granted it's looking primarily to be a gorilla hail threat (followed by downburst winds).

I know the focus is on the event underway, but tomorrow is actually not a bad setup for Detroit and Toledo.

Pretty impressive shear profiles supportive of rotating storms, with the timing of the front & best forcing during peak heating (18z - 21z).

Obviously with morning showers/clouds the bust potential is high, but so is the ceiling for this event if there's adequate afternoon destabilization and the front timing doesn't speed up.

2 minutes ago, Chinook said:

It's too capped in TX/OK.

Yep.

Aside from a few hail reports earlier, that Tornado Watch has been a nothingburger.

This one definitely kind of fell apart for TX and possibly OK.

Adding insult to injury, with yet another late-season PV split and greenland block developing, we're looking at yet another "cold" snap (not cold enough for a frost/freeze, but definitely well-below normal temps with highs in the 50a/60s) for many locations this upcoming weekend.

15 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah we were down in Huntsville TX north of Houston.  Glad we were there before the major heat set in lol

I was back up on Detroit briefly this weekend. Even there, they're finally starting to see some leafing out (I'd say it was about 10-15%). Everything was still bare 2 weeks ago.

The grass was extremely green/lush though, more so than I expected for mid-April. It speaks to how warm the winter was there.

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Was in MO, OK, and TX all last week.  Looks like mid summer down in TX.

Up here it's greening up pretty nicely now. Several trees are starting to leaf out.  

Looking forward to some boomers Tue evening 

We're at about 95% leaf out here in DFW at least. Some of the trees still have that early season yellow tint to them, and the pine trees (the ones that lose their leaves) still aren't in full bloom. 

Once you get up to Texoma (outside of the Urban Heat Island), I'd say it's more like 75-80% leaf out.

I imagine the trees definitely have a mid-summer look down in Austin / San Antonio / Houston though.

20 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea just most of the heavier bands have stayed west and sw. Now they are to the east lol. 

It seems even Selfridge also picked up over 1.25" as of this morning. Pontiac also did respectably.

Still got some more rain to go today to add to those totals.

4 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yesterday pm runs of Models had 1.5-2 inches here. I doubt we've had more than .2. If this were a winter system, I'd be pissed lol. Donut hole overhead.

FWIW, it seems DTW has already picked up 0.71" so far.

21 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

I ate a good amount of KFC growing up. Went down to Missouri a few times and that’s how I tried them. Went down there in the summer and was in heaven once I found out good ole Ohio had some haha. In terms of quality tho you have a point about KFC. Popeyes not bad also

Not sure how it is up there, but the KFCs here are always ghost towns when I drive by (even during so-called busy times). I'm surprised they haven't started closing shop.

If I had to choose chain fried chicken restaurants to eat at, Popeye's, Bojangles (the OG Bojangles in the SE states, not the diet abominations opening in Texas & Ohio), Krispy Krunchy, Lee's Famous Recipe and Jollibee are all superior.

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

I don't know what it is about that place.  I have one about 5 mins from me and I never go.   It's fcking chicken fingers with a dip that's basically ranch and ketchup mixed.

It's similar to the hype behind In-N-Out and Chick-Fil-A

The food itself is decent at best (especially the Cane's sauce & Texas Toast. The chicken is moist & big, but bland/unseasoned). However, the service is always top tier (including being extremely fast), the food is always hot/fresh and it's reasonably priced.

Interestingly enough, we just got Saavy Sliders down here. They already opened 1 location each in Dallas & San Antonio with fairly big expansion plans in the work. They have good Cajun Fries, but otherwise, that's the place that I don't get the hype over. It's overpriced and the service is poor on top of having mediocre food.

We had one last vestige of low clouds move in (they have since mixed back out), but fortunately not before the start & finish of totality.