Powerball
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Posts posted by Powerball
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On 6/24/2025 at 6:03 PM, Stevo6899 said:
They say the same when they have those rare days in the 40s. Thats us for atleast 5 months. All depends on individuals tolerance. I think most people would take warmth over arctic air.
I started to post exactly that in response, but yeah. You're spot on, lol...
EDIT: Funny thing is, after 3 top 20 hottest Summers in a row before 2025, this Summer's looking to be more on the normal (if not cooler) side with no real heatwaves on the horizon for us. We still have yet to see our first 100*F+ day and should close out June without one.
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43 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:
IWX kind of on an island issuing an Extreme Heat Warning but with the overnight lows being so incredibly warm, I think it’s the right call.
To be fair, the bigger metros with UHI effect (Chicago, Detroit, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, etc.) are also under Excessive Heat Warnings.
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2 minutes ago, canderson said:
It does look that way - how is the wind though?
At least in Collin / Denron Counties, there were numerous 60-70 MPH wind gusts, which any other day if not for all the hype would be a solid severe weather event.
It is rapidly turning into a Flash Flood situation for DFW now.
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Scenario #2 from FWD's AFD ended up panning out.
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Just got the notification for a Destructive Wind Warning (80 MPH) here.
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13 minutes ago, canderson said:
True, that cell near McKinney especially. But it’s very sporadic.
And the supercell down around Stephenville. It's producing massive anvil/outflow blowoff.
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1 hour ago, canderson said:
I don’t think the a scenario 2 is going to happen unfortunately
It kind of has, although coverage is not really widespread.
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The showers moving east out of Jack County bear watching. They could potentially intensify to severe t'storms like the cells in Palo Pinto County, which would pose a problem for DFW.
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC363-082230-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0371.250608T2121Z-250608T2230Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
421 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Central Palo Pinto County in north central Texas...
* Until 530 PM CDT.
* At 421 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of
Possum Kingdom Lake, or 22 miles northeast of Ranger, moving east
at 20 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.
* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
Lake Palo Pinto around 445 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Brazos,
Lone Camp, Santo, and New Salem.
This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 378 and 389.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.
&&
LAT...LON 3279 9806 3251 9807 3251 9809 3267 9857
3286 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 287DEG 16KT 3274 9846
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
$$
Stalley
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Tornado Warning TXC119-277-082145- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0047.250608T2111Z-250608T2145Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 411 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Delta County in north central Texas... Southwestern Lamar County in north central Texas... * Until 445 PM CDT. * At 410 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Roxton, or 16 miles southwest of Paris, moving southeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Big Creek Lake around 420 PM CDT. Cooper around 425 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Gadston and Ben Franklin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3352 9583 3356 9576 3346 9554 3334 9571 TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 321DEG 13KT 3349 9574 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN $$ Stalley
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Not sure I've ever seen a watch for winds up to 105 MPH *AND* 5" diameter hail before...
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Oklahoma
Western North Texas and Low Rolling Plains
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 105
mph likely
Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail
events to 5 inches in diameter possible
A few tornadoes likely
SUMMARY...Increasing intense severe storm development is expected
through late afternoon into evening. This will include initial
supercells capable of very large hail with a tornado risk, but a
prominent potential for widespread damaging winds should evolve this
evening. -
Either a PDS Severe Watch or Tornado Watch is coming shortly for parts of North / NW Texas...
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FWD presents a possible fly in the ointment with respect to high-end severe potential. It wouldn't be a DFW severe weather setup if there wasn't one.
Take it for what it's worth...
QuoteThe biggest
change to this afternoon forecast package is that some of the
latest CAM guidance is now highlighting a low potential for the
clusters currently located near Childress to grow upscale and blow
through the region this afternoon. This presents us with two
scenarios:
Scenario 1 has already been discussed ad-nauseam
QuoteScenario 2 is that the the clusters that are currently to our
west expand and inhibit significant strengthening of the late
evening activity. This is the less likely scenario, but if it
does occur we would see a lesser swath of intense winds across
North Texas. We`ll continue to monitor this potential as there is
currently an expanding coverage of storms to the northwest of
Wichita Falls.
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SPC is considering a Watch soon for this area...
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In addition to the squall line itself, CAMs have hinted at some discrete supercells ahead of it impacting the northern DFW suburbs.
That will have to be watched closely as well.
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This made me laugh (I think it was their delivery)...
https://x.com/TheShawnHendrix/status/1931718406912311314?t=DexunR-LH_Bybk9Bix1nMQ&s=19
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Updated Day 1 Outlook has expanded the Moderate Risk area, as well as the highest hail/tornado probabilities, to include all of DFW.
In fact, latest SPC wording mentions hail up to 5" in diameter...
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A pretty broad moderate risk area has been issued for North Texas and Southern Oklahoma, including at least a portion of DFW.
Main threat seems to be damaging straight line winds, wirh pretty strong wording in the SPC outlook of 80-100 MPH winds.
Shear values in/of themselves aren't the most impressive (although still sufficient), but with the NW flow advecting in drier air aloft and strong surface heating expected, downburst potential is unusually high (especially once a cold pool gets established).
Very large hail will be a secondary threat with any supercells early on with the steep mid-level lapse rates
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3 hours ago, Spartman said:
Scott Sabol has some sort of "What went wrong?" writeup regarding this Spring
https://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2025/05/why-has-spring-been-so-wetcool.html?m=1TL;DR = The unusually late-in-the-season SSWE fucked up the upper level pattern.
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Late June 2025 Heat Wave
in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Posted
The bolded is a huge exaggeration, lol. But Texas summers are like Michigan winters in that a lot of people are staying under the A/C or heat as much as they can.