Powerball

It's pretty desperate times when grapsing at a *potential* system 10+ days out...

58 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Was just thinking, wasn't that storm yet another 11th hour collapse of what had been consistently modeled high-end totals? All it was was f**king cold.

Yessir!!! 

Merry Christmas on this day with ample sun and blue skies!!! 

#GodBlessTheSunbelt

28 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Record high minimum for Chicago was 46° and looks like we beat that barring a significant drop before midnight! We won’t beat the all time high of 64° unfortunately. What a time to be alive! Tempted to check if the hydrangeas are budding. Looks like I brought the south with me when I moved north!

I'm guessing that 46*F is from when the University of Chicago was the main order station (so a stronger UHI influence) as that particular record is from 1936.

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

Will be interesting for sure. It seems like Nina or Nino, the pacific jet continues to be the biggest influence on our weather. PV splits seem to not deliver up to the hype. But literally anything beats the current pattern. 52° right now in western suburbs of Chicago. Got to be a record high low.


.

Surprisingly, the current record high minimum for today at ORD is 37*F (set in 2019). And I say surprisingly because 37*F does feel low (but that's just a hunch, I have nothing empirical to back that up with).

I doubt 52*F (or more specifically, 50*F at ORD) holds, but even several degrees lower than that would still shatter the record.

Palm Dude's trolling wouldn't be nearly as bad if he came up with a new schtick.

At this point, it's just so low effort and predictable. 

2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Please expand on that

I'm sure @michsnowfreak has a logical explanation behind his comment with some form of data to back it up. And I can certainly agree that the broader upper level pattern in 2011 vs. 2023 is nothing alike.

But I will say, comparing the anomalies for yalls' part of the country (as well as the snowcover maps), there are definitely some similarities. But this, of course, doesn't mean a whole lot with respect to how the rest of the season will evolve. 

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Remember, you arent in Atlanta anymore lol.

Oh, he definitely gon' learn, lol...

I remember the other guy from the Atlanta area a few years ago who about lost his mind when he realized how cloudy it is up there.

2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Really??!! Upper 40's-upper 50's in late December? If December is going to be the new November, I'll take those temps in a heartbeat. And it's not like it's going to be a complete washout. Just occasional showers. Beats the hell out of CAD.

The gloomy skies and stratiform rains is the awful part I see (granted, this is normal climo for yalls' neck of the woods), not so much the temps or duration of precip.

22 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Might have a shot if you head back to Atlanta.

 

On 12/15/2023 at 8:36 PM, Stevo6899 said:

As long as it's not a snow noreaster for I95 cities..

On a related note...

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

Judah firing warning shots in his latest blog. Winter cancel perhaps?


.

Winter hasn't even started yet, though...

6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

But it's a calm cold. My wife hails from Tomsk (over a bit from Omsk) and she's fine with a quiet -40C/F but can't stand the windy PV blasts we get here in the Midwest. 

Thats like saying it's a dry heat...

1 minute ago, bowtie` said:

I know I will regret this, but what is ATHF?

Aqua Teen Hunger Force.

EDIT: I take fault for that. I accidentally typed "in" instead of "on."

1 hour ago, mayjawintastawm said:

It seems like the period between 11/20 and 12/15 has become particularly scary for TN and NC the last 20-30 years in terms of nighttime strong tornadoes. Do we have data to back that up? I remember driving from RDU to western NC for school a little before the turn of the millennium late at night right after Thanksgiving, and encountering some really scary weather. The pattern seems to have continued.

Yes.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/watch-out-tornado-alley-is-migrating-eastward/

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0048-2

It's great that ATHF is back on the air. 

11 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Daylight isn't getting longer yet, but sunsets are getting later.

Right.

Will have to wait until after New Years in order for the days in totality to get longer.

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

Fun fact — MKE has not been below freezing through the first 10 days of December.

Spoke too soon, buddy...

53 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Two years ago today: Mayfield tornado outbreak

back on 12/10/1995, an arctic cold front came through the Great Lakes, along with this mini-polar vortex at 500mb leading the way. The combination of synoptic/lake effect snow events gave Sault Ste Marie 56.5" of snow and the snow depth jumped up by 31". Near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, over 30" of snow happened. As you can see on here, the 850mb temp dropped to -20C with 40 knot winds at Buffalo.

 

 

December 2021 was definitely unprecedented severe weather wise. Had 2 of the worst outbreaks in history, let alone in December or in the winter time.

DFW also shattered its record warmest December on record by a whopping 7.3 degrees, warm enough that it even surpassed all but 10 of the warmest Novembers on record.

2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The severe weather event down south way overperformed today

Saw this on Reddit, taken in Goodlettsville (northern suburb of Nashville). 

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Would be lovely. 

8 hours ago, st0rmbrkr said:

Why does it matter if a thread is started and the storm doesn't come to fruition?  Is there a limit to the number of threads on this Forum?  Is there nothing to be learned or discussed from a system or model that changes?

You have a point, but you're taking the banter too seriously.

People are just frustrated about the general pattern, and the evolution of the storm that thread was created for only added to the frustration. People tend ot become irrationally flippant when they're frustrated. 

DFW tied the record high of 80*F today, last set in 1977.

On 12/5/2023 at 5:10 PM, DocATL said:

18z GFS was a little bit of everything bad if you want snow. Some timely suppression sandwiched by rain events. Yuck.


.

Isn't that par for the course for your neck of the woods in a normal winter though? 

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It will be a mix of disappearing storms and sneaky surprises. 

So in other words, the same as every winter...