Powerball

Dry line ia already pretty close to ripping per the visible satellite. There's a nice looking agitated CU field expending down into Big Country.

3 hours ago, rainsucks said:

still looks above average to me. I mean the warmth probably won't be as extreme as it has been (relative to average), but it looks mild overall.

It's nothing you all aren't used to and it won't be too severe with the higher sun angle, but there is fairly good indication for a significant blast of cold air (by late March standards) next week, with 850mb temps falling to -10*C or lower and the PV Split. Granted, there's still not much snow potential outside the LES snow belts.

I won't be up until the week of Easter, so I'm hoping it eases up & moderates by then.

What's really sad is that the 2nd half of March is looking to end up below (even well below) normal, and potentially bring an extended arctic air outbreak.

I'll be coming up briefy at the end of March, and was hoping I didn't have to bring the winter coat. Not looking so good on that front right now.

1 hour ago, Spartman said:

Suicide weather today. It's looking wet Friday into Saturday. Either way, we're in for quite a prolonged overcast stretch into the weekend. Dreading this month will be dealing with a hangover from the very cloudy January many of us had earlier this year.

Better to get the overcast stretches out of the way now, before the Solar Eclipse in a few weeks.

40 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

From wettest Jan to 4th driest Feb.  *EDIT* bite your tongue. Don't be jinxing next Feb 

 

Feb was 3rd warmest, behind only 1882 & 2017, edging past 1998.

 

Winter DJF finished 4th warmest, behind 1881-82, 1931-32, & 1889-90. Still a solid 2° colder than the incredible winter of 1881-82. 

 

Despite tying for the second least snowy December and tying for the 19th least snowy February, a pretty snowy January kept this DJF snowfall (20.2") well outside the top 20 futile list. If no more measurable snow fell the rest of the way, this season (22.6") would tie for the 13th least snowy season on record. However, if 2.6" or more falls, it would not make even the top 20.

 

 

Whoops!!! i didn't even realize I made that typo...

With only 3.1", February 2024 will tie for the 19th least snowiest on record for DTW. It will also be the 4th driest with only 0.24: of precipitation.

lol @beavis1729

30 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Joe Bastardi is an energy sector guy who’s going to warn about sloshing bathtubs and impending cold even when there is no impending cold. Strat warming is a near non issue with a -PDO. The pacific runs the show. Nothing else matters (much).


.

Energy sector guy?

26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont get the love for a freak warm March ala 2012. Thats why I have no problem rooting for what others consider miserable spring cold. 

It probably works the same way when some root for a warm Fall (I.E. October 1963) that others would find miserable.

14 hours ago, DocATL said:

So last winter was a Nina and Chicago hardly had any snow. This year in a Nino we get two weeks of winter. Not sure what’s normal at this point.


.

As mentioned before, this sub's kind of paying the piper for the string of good winters in the late 2000s / early 2010s.

Everything has a equilibrium.

23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Theres a huge difference between a March/April cold snap and a sustained long-lasting winter pattern. Its kind of like how every year since 2013 some call for "morch" with any sight of a mild pattern (sometimes not even that) but it never has been close to happening. Warm spells? Yes. Morch? No. 

My comment was more so focused on the "Winter is over" part of that tweet.

They are being flippant and are technically wrong (winter weather can certainly still happen well into March / April as has been pointed out), but I see the validity in the spirit of their statement in recognition of the broader pattern.

BTW, 2012 is funny in a way too because as much as folks talk about March, May was also fairly torchy (it just doesn't get discussed as much being that it sat right in the shadows of March) and both months sandwiched an April with a pretty hard freeze for many areas.

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

Some folks may come along and talk about how there's still March to go through which averages a fair bit of snow or how we always see a cold snap in March/April, but you can't fight the overall trends/signals. The odds of locking in another sustained/long-lasting winter pattern for the remainder of this season are progressively diminishing by the day.

This wekeend will hopefuly be the last freeze of the season, and we can transition into Spring mode.

4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Ghd1 had nothing to do with lake Michigan. I am aware we do better than Chicago avg wise and with the smaller/avg events. I just get tired of the its not our climo b.s. to get a big dog, and its unrealistic to want one. The point is it's possible. Ec, minneapolis, Chicago, they've all had one in the last 20 years. 

While Lake Michigan is certainly part of it, to get a GHD 1-type storm to take a favorable track for Detroit to get dumped on, it would also require a deepening low pressure center to move up the spine of the Appalachian Mountains *AND* with an intense TROWAL, which is much more difficult to accomplish thanks to the complications with topography / downsloping.

Although total amounts will still be underwhelming, considering you all managed to get 100% snow when a mix or even straight rain was expected for today's event should definitely count as a good bust.

2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Spring/Summer severe weather enthusiasts have been suffering for many years too, jus sayin.

90% of winters 45 and north have the winter-time nirvana Beavis describes and is just a state or two away.  If winter means that much to someone, as clearly it does, why not move?  It may mean sacrificing a high paying job, lifestyle, and other things but it sure beats spending life miserable.
I packed up everything I had at 22 and did it.  If you want something bad enough, make it happen.  Stop whining.

 

Indeed to the bolded.

I did exactly that myself with respect to severe weather and sunny weather. 

Whew!!!

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Though we will never see a "dry" heat climate here, if I have to suffer through a hot summer, Id rather have some impressive hot spells, get some actual noteworthy high temps, and some cooler spells intermingled. These summers of almost every day humidity, muggy nights, and no impressive heat are very mundane. Last summer DTW had a max temp of just 90F.

 

And speaking of looking ahead...I will be following the La Nina thread in the general weather forum. To say i feel next winter will be MUCH snowier throughout the Great Lakes/midwest and especially in the northwoods is an understatement. 

All the Canadian Wildfire Smoke you guys dealt with last year definitely contributed to the cooler daytime highs.

I have little doubt DTW sees a max temp this year higher than 90*F.

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Snow rates were at or above 1"/hr in the afternoon. DTW had 6.1" from 1pm-7pm 2-1-15. You joke for that storm to not be over-romanticized despite the heavy total, but yet some have no problem exaggerating the bust of 2-1-11. This pic was taken 2-2-11, but I would expect to see no snow the way some people act like GHD1 busted lol.

I think everyone can agree GHD 1 was still a nice storm, just as GHD 2 was a nice storm, their objective flaws aside.

Again, just offering a balanced perspective about GHD 2 in particular instead of dogpiling on Stevo.

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

zzzzzzz

As long as it's near/above average temp-wise (which it is), I'll take zzzzzzz this time of year over cold & zzzzzzz.

14 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

The only 16 inch plus storm that I can remember that was done within 12 hours was that New Year’s Eve 2008 storm and that’s as rare as it gets around here. 

Yeah, now that was definitely an impressive storm by all measures.

But as you say, extremely rare and unlikely to be repeated any time soon.

15 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

For the record, the snow started around 2 AM Sunday morning and ended around 7 AM Monday morning.

 

i’m not diminishing the storm at all. I just know it was a long, duration event. And Steve, forgetting the storm is classic Steve. Complain just to complain. 

I get it though.

It was most certainly memorable in terms of the total amounts, how widespread the 12"+ amounts were, and even duration.

But from an observational perspective. I can see how it may have be forgettable if you're one whose preference is for storms with say blizzard conditions, TSSN, 12"+ amount within a short window, etc.

EDIT: BTW, just trying to offer a more nuanced take instead of being quick to bash / criticize Stevo about his memory.

11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I call bs on this. It's funny that GHDI still did manage to drop 6-10 inches on the area (including TSSN), but due to the fact we dryslotted and didn't get 12 to 18 inches, it's still mentioned by some 13 years and tons of heavy snowfall records later almost like it was like that storm the East Coast had a few decades ago where they were forecast 3 feet and got 0. 

 

But I feel it's those same people that try to minimize GHDII. it was not a storm of light to moderate snow here with half an inch an hour rates at its peak. While it did start and end with rather steady though not heavy snow, the core of the day had very heavy snowfall. Of the almost 17" that I had, 9.5" fell from 12pm-9pm (included DTW obs from 12-9pm which include some intrahour). There was plenty of drifting too. 

I would also say your description of "very heavy snow" is an exaggeration.

Those ground observations you referenced are based more so around visibilities than actual snowfall intensity. With the powdery nature of the snow and the sustained winds around 15-25 MPH, it was pretty easy to accomplish persistent 1/2 (moderate snow) or 1/4 mile (heavy snow) visibilities throughout much of the event. 

That said, I will grant that even DTX admits rates were up to 1" per hour in some areas, with the high ratios helping the snow to accumulate efficiently.

Again, as I stated, it was a nice storm for what it was (a widespread 12"+ snowstorm, for many the biggest of their lifetime). And as I also stated, there was definitely some blowing/drifiting. But let's not over-romanticize how impressive it was either.

As nice as GHD 2 was from a total amount and spread-the-wealth standpoint, for this subforum it wasn't really an impressive wind producer nor a storm with particularly heavy rates (compared to its predecessor in 2011).

It was mostly a long duration light/moderate event, lasting over 24 hours (at the peak, rates were maybe 1/2 inch per hour). There was some blowing/drifting towards the end, but again, nothing out of the ordinary for that area.

That could be why it's sort of hard to remember this event, lol.