Powerball

32 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

ABC7 Chicago put out a map. I would’ve waited a day or so to avoid the “You only said 3-6 inches!” crowd if models keep bringing it north.

2 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

For the record I work at one of the tv stations in South Bend (in the news department…not a met) and I’m happy to say it’s not this station. 

It's going to be fun troll bumping these maps if the GFS is right.

2 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

Full truth Rexy is the only good Chief we got here in the Detroit Market the rest are not so great.. 

I understand WDIV doesn't even have a chief meteorologists right now, since Ben Bailey left over the vaccine mandate.

15 minutes ago, NJHurricane said:

Lurking in y’all subforum to help a friend in Macomb Michigan track this….any Michigan posters have any local tv meteorologists you recommend?  My friend isn’t completely weather illiterate but doesn’t track stuff like we do.  Good luck to you all and thanks for the information.

Honestly, I think the other Detroit area members can attest that none of the Detroit TV meteorologists are that great. 

Dave Rexroth (ABC affiliate) is probably the best of the bunch.

Does anyone have the snowfall map for the 18z EURO op, that includes the 2nd wave?

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Not sure if there was collaboration on that or not, but these insane numbers rarely pan out as modeled, plus track will change, so here we are trying to be aggressive enough to get people to stay tuned to the forecast but vague enough to not put amounts in anyone’s heads yet. Once models show all time record snow storms and a ton of ice it’s hard to stop that hype train from getting into the public sphere but we can try to at least steer the message…try the key word. 

Isn't it SOP to issue Winter Storm Watches at least 48hrs before the onset of an event?

You guys (I'm talking about all the WFOs in line for some impact from this system) will definitely need to shit or get off the pot by tomorrow.

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

You have to throw in the 12z korean

Why not also include the Japanese and NOGAPS models for good measure...

Not sure if this was already posted...

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
250 PM EST Sun Jan 30 2022

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-311000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-
Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-
Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-
Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-
Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport,
West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon,
Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson,
Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Parker City, Clinton,
Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma, Rosedale, Greencastle,
Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield,
New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, Martinsville,
Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville,
Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield,
Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus,
Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford,
Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon
250 PM EST Sun Jan 30 2022

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY IMPACT TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...

There is a chance of wintry precipitation beginning Tuesday night
and continuing through Thursday across central Indiana. Timing,
and details on dominant precipitation type and amounts are still
not clear. However, forecast confidence is expected to increase
over the next couple of days. Early indications are that wintry
precipitation could cause significant travel impacts across
portions of the area. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain are all
possible.

5 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

18z GFS would probably get me home

While good, yesterday's 12z/18z GFS would be just beautiful.

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's great to see so many old posters!

Might have to make an impromptu trip if that GFS verifies. 

But will need to see more model agreement and consistency (hopefully sooner than later for travel plans).

46 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I actually have no idea how to guess sleet over freezing rain, but cool 850s and subfreezing 925, I'm guessing sleet.

A general rule for sleet would be 925mb temps of at least -5°C with 850mb temps in the +1-3°C range.

4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Exactly what I am hoping for. Feb of 2015 I was focused on my former back yard and SR maps painting 22" totals there. Didn't realize Detroit wasn't expecting at least a 15" hit.

There was a period (albeit brief) where the heaviest amounts shifted into Northern OH / IN.

23 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Jan 4-5 2014. Last minute jog/bump N screwed Motown out of dbl digit hit. I dont want too much of a last minute jog, just enough to bump that stripe of 24-30" in NOH up to The Metro here. Like you said, days to go wrt the final wave and what it really does for this region.

On the flip side, a last minute bump north with GHD 2 put Detroit in the bullseye.

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yes. I understand what a co-op observer does. There just isn't enough of them to cover localized lake effect snow to get a general idea of snowfall totals. When 10-15 reports are coming in from cocarahs and NWS employees of greater than 49" of snow in 24 hours. The NWS employee from Elma reported over 54" than that chart is wrong. Cocarahs has training classes as well, I've taken a few.

True to the bolded.

That's why I said it's all boils down to what data they used to make that map. Perhaps their intention was to only focus on first order sites where co-op observers measure snow using NWS equipment and guidelines.

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 Weather stations have nothing to do with snowfall measurements. 

I'm not sure what you mean.

NWS has a team of volunteers all across the country who do ground reports of snowfall using NWS-required guidelines and NWS equipment, to ensure accurate measurements. For the purpose of climate recordkeeping, these Co-op volunteers only observe snowfall at sites where an actual human is on site collecting data (versus an ASOS).

There are also a few WFOs where local TV station or FAA employees are authorized to be official reporters. But this isn't typical. Then of course, there are actual NWS employees and NWS offices.

The problem with Cocorahs and even trained storm spotters (who aren't the same as Co-op observers) is there's a greater likelihood their reports will inaccurate since they haven't undergone the training to measure snow properly and don't have the proper equipment. We don't know if they're slant sticking, measuring drifts, etc.

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That map Is terrible for New York. 77” in montague in 1997 and a more accurate total of 65” in Cheektowaga in 2014 here in Buffalo, there were several reports of 65” I. 24 hours

My guess is that map is based on snowfall measurements from first order weather stations, and not measurements from storm spotters.

So it may not necessarily be wrong, but based on a specific set of data. 

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

You just had to be there.  The only thing even close to that in these parts was January 2014.  You need to understand that snow was not the big/deadly part of that storm, but the extreme wind and cold.  How old are you?

The other thing about 1978 was the hype leading up to it. If I'm not mistaken, it was similar to 1999 in a way with Blizzard headlines a good week out. Not to mention, there was pretty good consensus amongst the (primitive?) forecast models it would be an intense cyclone well in advance.

Us weather weenies know Detroit got screwed by what was ultimately a last minute NW shift and the storm deepening even more than what was projected. But the average joe doesn't pay attention to those type of details.

EDIT: I'd say the only storm that came closest in terms of hype (in recent history) was actually GHD 1.

32 minutes ago, Jonger said:

There was one here in the late 80s that supposedly topped 2 feet. I was living closer to Det and it wasn't as impressive there. 

The recent Buffalo storm is about as perfect of a synoptic setup as you can get for epic snow amounts.

*Closed upper level low

*Negative tilt trough

*Rapidly deepening gulf low

*Strong 850mb Jet (TROWAL)

*No blocking to force coastal transfer

A system along those lines seem to be like a unicorn these days in the western half of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

With this sysyem, the key will be getting favorable thermals to align with the best forcing, getting the best forcing to train over the same areas for the storm's entirety and for the best forcing to not end up so far above the DGZ that snow ratios take a hit.

2 minutes ago, Baum said:

you mean you think a general 5"-10" event is more likely than a 20"-30" accumulation in the heart of the main band of heavy snow? I'm betting that way as well.

EURO shows a widespread 8-12" on the map I see.

A 10-15" event (with narrow banding of slightly higher amounts) seems reasonable to expect, IMO.  

Just now, Hoosier said:

Anybody can say that, because your statement is based on climo.  But big outliers/extremes do come around once in a while.

Sure, but that's why they're called outliers/extremes.

That said, I'd love nothing more than for the GFS to happen for you all.

I'd bet money the EURO's totals will end up closer to correct than not.

It is interesting that the GEFS are generally NW of the OP run, especially with the other models SE of it (some considerably).

3 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

I'm extremely suspicious of the Kuchera method here. The modeled snow depth is probably going to be more realistic at least for the STL area where ptypes are expected to be variable.

Even the 10:1 ratio map (likely also too conservative) on the GFS is pretty impressive. It would be Detroit's largest snowstorm ever, with 12" falling in 9 hours.

GGEM would be a nasty sleet storm for DFW, and GFS would be a nasty ice storm.

Awful...

17 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Very long duration event 

12z GFS does, however, show an impressive thumping with 0.75" to 1" of QPF in 6hr from C. Illinois to NE Indiana up to Detroit. Easily 1-2"+ per hour with blizzard conditions for that period.

This is the only run to show something like it though. Most likely the ceiling in terms of potential.

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

The GFS has over 3" of QPF falling as sleet in parts of northern Indiana and Ohio. That would be insane. Of course the usual op run caviots apply. Euro ens at 6z remained quite south.

I don't think the QPF amounts were 3", but they were still insanely high when they saw all that sleet from GHD I.