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LakePaste25

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  1. LakePaste25
    can really see where this makes a difference in +/- precip anomalies. With a traditional Nino look and more suppressed convection in the W pac on the EPS, you get the typical deep +precip anoms in the traditional Nino southern stream belt in the SE with -anoms in NE. whereas the GEFS, with its lingering convection in the W pac, has a more muted precip signal.
  2. LakePaste25
    The EPS appears to be modeling less lingering convection in the west pac vs. the GEFS and CMCE.
  3. LakePaste25
    I’m going to wait until September or October to see if we can do anything to that west pac warm pool first. Agreed that’s where we’re headed if it lingers.
  4. LakePaste25
    “La Nino” pattern with the strong southern stream (relative to seasonal normals) that curves northward due to the se ridge. Could be due to the lingering warm pool that @bluewave refers to
  5. LakePaste25
    hopefully this pre nino summer is a bust and we set multiple heat records throughout the summer. I love hot and humid summers
  6. LakePaste25
    I wouldn’t say that coming 1 degree short of the all-time record high for May is “normal”
  7. LakePaste25
    Just recorded our 2nd earliest 90+ degree day on record at ERI. The earliest was 5/16/1991. Definitely not typical for a pre Nino May.
  8. LakePaste25
    The key is to just roll with it. Fire up the BBQ on Christmas and make something good
  9. LakePaste25
    Pretty much my preliminary thoughts until we see cool anomalies replace the west pac warm pool like during the past super nino events.
  10. LakePaste25
    March and April were warm in the east. March was +6 here at ERI and April was +5.1.
  11. LakePaste25
    My cool/wet summer for the great lakes will go up in flames unless we start seeing this
  12. LakePaste25
    FWIW, whether it’s more like 1997-98 or 2015-16 doesn’t really change the odds of a big NE snowstorm or two between breaks of the pacific jet IMO. Just really getting into semantics here of what more closely defines a super Nino pattern in the western hemisphere.
  13. LakePaste25
    Yup, but this exact issue that Ben points out is what many of us believe contributed to the super torch of December 2015, where you had the Nino-like pac jet extension, but then systems cut in a Nina - like SE ridge. Will be interesting to see if Aigle is right, and thus the forcing is so overwhelmingly strong that we see a more broad pacific jet-southern stream connection similar to 1997 instead of 2015.
  14. LakePaste25
    As Ben is pointing out, we could be dealing with some convection further west than the typical super Nino configuration due to warm waters extending further west. Makes sense to me unless we can get some actual cool SSTAs in the west pac. Same theme we’ve been dealing with where it may cause split forcing or alter the standing wave forcing to some degree.
  15. LakePaste25
    Many of us like to look at global temperatures because it helps us understand expectations for the upcoming winter. If there’s far more warm anomalies than cold anomalies, it means our chances of landing on one of the cold anomalies is lower before you even factor in any favorable or unfavorable indices. Like playing a game of minesweeper and you’re adding more mines.
  16. LakePaste25
    Your chart actually shows the flaws of MEI quite well. It’s only looking for one type/configuration of Nino. You can see how it significantly lagged the 2023-2024 Nino because of this. It may very well be true that the MEI will rate higher this time due to the +PMM, but you still have the -PDO working against it.
  17. LakePaste25
    beware of using the MEI. During Super Nino events, it tends to be a weenie index and is biased towards central pacific events. RONI vs. ONI are the bread and butter for this IMO.
  18. LakePaste25
    Not a huge lag between ONI and RONI at the moment (roughly 0.3C):
  19. LakePaste25
    The reason many of the big mets on twitter are going with super and east based is because most Ninos that have started out the way this one is starting out have gone that way, so they’re not just doing it because they have some inherent warm bias - they have data to back it up. But the thing about meteorology (and the broader sciences) is that past data is only right until otherwise proven wrong.
  20. LakePaste25
    This is where I’m at as well. Until I see a more supportive evidence in the SSTA/MJO/WWB evolution that supports a CANSIPS-like outcome, I’m taking it with a grain of salt. Modelology vs. Meteorology.
  21. LakePaste25
    Even if a 97-98 SSTA replica was on the way, I would still predict a pacific jet dominated winter with potential for 1-2 big coastal or SE snowstorms later in the winter. These are individual big ticket events that cannot be predicted months, or even several weeks in advance.
  22. LakePaste25
    I think when you look at December 2015 alone, it was an anomalous configuration for a super Nino. The lack of a strong southern stream in the SE US allowed storms to cut, so you had both this bad combo of a pac jet extension to the west coast combined with a Nina-like SE ridge configuration. Compare this to December 1997 where you have a strong southern stream extending all the way across the southern US, which is the more canonical Nino outcome. Just giving 1 example of how we can do better than 15-16.
  23. LakePaste25
    If it is not going to snow in December then I hope we get a December 2015 type outcome so I can enjoy the nice weather outdoors. December 2023 was not ideal, because it was still hostile for snow but it was in the 30s most days.
  24. LakePaste25
    All super ninos have featured below normal snowfall here - a 15-16 outcome vs 97-98 doesn’t make a difference for me as they both had roughly 60-80” on the season. There will always be brief cold shots on the backside of winter and sometimes even very short ones in december if we’re lucky, although december is typically the most hostile.
  25. LakePaste25
    Yeah. I fully believe mostly warm temps and strong or super. I see the difference between basin wide vs EP as “do we get a couple of more cold intrusions on the back side of winter to try to get something to phase with that supercharged southern stream, or is it extremely limited like 97-98?” It’s really not a question that can answered by even the most skilled mets this early on IMO.
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