jimmosk

Send some of that stuff south! Light sleet here at the moment, atop a tenth of an inch of freezing rain from overnight, which in turn is on top of 2.5" of snow from yesterday.

For VWF: The models all show good qpf in Philly and surroundings. The differential in the snow amounts is mostly differences in how much warm nose pushes in and hence how much mixing occurs. My exp is that given the cold air that's been in place, and the high precip rates expected due to the rapid deepening low, you'll get the typical evap cooling effect where the heavy rates keep the column at freezing so long as precip is sufficiently robust. The lull period tnght tmrw am is where the risk is as has been stated. Heaviest rates, 1-2" hr are really only progged for a short time on any of the models, and it's right after precip ramps back up. Some models show that period being sleet for many of us; that cuts the totals. Others keep it all snow. That will be the difference for the corridor though btwn a 6-8-12-15 storm total. Remember that if we got 2" thundersnow type rates for several hours, we'd be talking plural feet in the corridor, not 10ish inches over 3 days. *Most* of this event is clearly NOT heavy snow. So, don't panic if things don't work out exactly as the models project. Expect that they won't be perfect. One thing they all show is that this system is with us for awhile and should produce some snow most of that time. By Tuesday pm, we will probably add up to what this forum expects, but, expect a lot of panic and concern from people here tonight and Monday, beyond the lull, just bc I think people are expecting a major 2"+ hr rate situation and again, outside a few hour window, this is a low and slow burn. I also think based on what I'm seeing live that the models may be underdoing the overrunning totals a bit, and that may also help us get to expected totals. We're going to be fine, folks.

Just back from a walk in the white and the holiday lights. We're over 3 inches but I don't think up to 4 yet. Regardless, that's more than I guessed we would get before the changeover, and it's still coming down pretty heavily. Just as I was coming inside I started hearing the pitter-patter of little sleet, so the mix line may not hold off for much longer. Thanks for the inspiration, Jeb!

I thought it was great to see Oliver turn his spotlight towards something I care about but most of the people I know have zero awareness of.

Snow bordering on heavy snow, with steadily less rain in it. Just in the five minutes since I took this photo the bare patches on the grass have filled in, though sidewalks and streets are still snow-free