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Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
Been occupied with other things and forgot to include flood risk tag early this week. But have definitely been enjoying this wet pattern but especially with some storms in the mix at times too since late last week. WPC has been maintaining Moderate ERO risk over the mid-upper coast for today. It’s likely they’ll have to include at least more broad SLGT risk areas around the coast the next 2 days with all the new heavy rainfall tacked on this week now. Especially with the near 2.5” PW trop moisture environment at times (near record value maxes this time of year around the coast according to WPC) hanging around for a few more days on both Euro & GFS. Though another MDT risk area of some sort wouldn’t be out of question. Lift & support aloft should not be a problem especially as we remain well in between the Atlantic & Pacific Highs with a pronounced weakness pattern remaining aloft over the state until next week. - - - Seen 4 in. totals today (alone) looking at rainfall data now around the coastal bend, and heavy rainfall/flood threat still doesn’t look like it’s over by any means over the coastal region yet, at least through Saturday. But even Sunday still looks fairly active now around STX before things really shut off going into next week. The mosquitos and grass are basically gonna be hell next week around here. Especially being summer right now. - Edwards plateau just northwest of San Antonio, and Houston area - ETX region have seen about 10 in. Just within the last 7 days. -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
Aside from the current troughing & frontal boundary in the eastern part of state, it’s looking quite active next week with a similar non-tropical M-UL pattern (esp. mid-week), at least over the southern half as more & more higher-end thunder probs have been showing up around here for pretty much the entire week now on multi-global model output. - PW as high as 2.5” (could be higher). So several inches of rainfall & a flood risk looks like a decent possibility also around the coastal region looking at most recent Euro and GFS runs. It was actually a fairly solid linear convective complex & outflow moving through C/ETX region (from late last night - mid morning hours). -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
Been getting some decent convection (somewhat organized) going on for the past 2 days now with that troughing/boundary around STX. Good thunder Thursday morning for 2 hours but little/no rain where I was until this morning. The UL troughing is clearly more evident today with activity moving more northeastward. All the convective debris in the afternoons has been keeping temps down a good amount. Which is another great + this time of year and for the A/C. Even if it substantially dries out this weekend or early next week, it doesn’t look like it’s going to last long as there looks to be another UL trough digging pretty far south toward the state again later next week. Euro & GFS also showing some MCS scenarios into NTX/ETX later next week as well with more southward progression with each new run. More of a very late spring/early fall type pattern rather than summer or tropical one. Even more, H5 heights still don’t look to go up much over the state through next week with more attempted ridging that it would really be able crank up the heat on the drier days. -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
Even though the hurricane warnings weren’t necessary at all right around the coastal bend, got some of the southward moving, outer western N-S oriented convective bands from TC Beryl during the afternoon. ‘Looked a lot like a convectively active cold front moving through with a more defined southward moving outflow boundary and gusty north winds. Seeing convection blowing up over TX Panhandle tonight from Plains troughing/front, it already looks like the TC has begun its right (north - northeastward) turn on latest satellite/radar imagery right now. So it looks like the “worse” may actually skoot around HOU area just off to the east tomorrow (after landfall). @Ed, snow and hurricane fan - - - It doesn’t necessarily look like things will dry out after TC Beryl moves out as next Plains front/trough looks to push into the state. It’ll likely move further south this time with deeper northerly flow assistance on outside western circulation of TC Beryl as it moves off to the northeast. -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
Starting to see some kind of southwesterly shear impact on satellite alone to Beryl as the convective blowoff on the north side is moving more northeast now. Both Euro & GFS ensembles have sig started to trend East on track. At this rate now, and the more southwesterly UL flow/shear just ahead of the TC’s current/predicted track could turn this thing northward, faster over W Gulf. All of STX would definitely be left mainly dry if that’s the case. ‘Can’t complain too much though since it’s a TC entity. - LA landfall would not be out of the question now. Especially tracking more over northeast tip of Yucatán, as I’ve seen before. A more southern track through the inner part of the landmass & actually through BOC normally/historically brings a higher risk of hurricane landfall into STX. -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
With TC Beryl (still likely to be mainly a rain/flood maker) coming around, things are definitely looking wet pretty much all of next week around the southern half. Even around San Antonio with that northward curve up there (after landfall near Brownsville), looking more likely now. The Atlantic/Bermuda ridge looks to setup shop around Florida & SEUS, which would definitely keep the pattern convectively active for a lot of the Eastern half of state through next week with all the trop moisture continuing to flow northwestward into W Gulf. There also looks to be a boundary in the state next week with the associated upper-trough north/east likely to cause some UL shear & inhibit Beryl’s intensity/organization. Which could sig increase totals for a good part of the CTX/ETX region with the added surface focus, UL support, and moisture pooling south of it. Along with all the Gulf moisture inflow still continuing. - - - Euro showing PW as high as 3.3 in. around the center. But very likely widespread 2.4 in. + areas north of it (on GFS also). 10” + area rainfall totals definitely not out of the question. Especially because of all this tropical stuff. Euro going 20+ in. areas near Rio Grande. GFS showing 12+ in. areas around most of STX. In any case, there’s likely to be flooding issues. Especially around Deep STX region because of TS Alberto rain dump just a few weeks ago. -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
Not surprised at all about the hype on here/out there now with currently MH Beryl. Just because a few *outlier models show a northerly track into US coast territory.. It’s already been busier than normal since last Thursday at the stores because of upcoming ID holiday, but it’s very (irritatingly) likely going to stay like that around here through early next week with Beryl, now. It was even crazy at the stores with just a TS Alberto tracking well south a few weeks ago, like if it was a hurricane… - - - Aside from already fairly well-established track consensus, Euro & GFS and ensemble consensus have been going pretty weak the past several days by the time it makes a W Gulf landfall. Even the majority of hurricane models (especially TVCN) show it only at TS strength also by then. Canadian of course, is just going overboard (as per usual with these systems). The TC pattern into the Gulf early this season has been for more southerly tracks (just like both TS Alberto & Chris did). Seeing these things over years, TC Beryl is likely also going to do a similar track somewhere into MX. Not only that, it’s going to be fighting an already active SAL at least somewhat, as I’m seeing more plumes moving into the Caribbean and W Gulf this weekend on NASA/GMAO dust forecast model. ‘Already been seeing the haze effects of SAL around here since the past 2 days or so now. - - - - Overall, Beryl is looking to be mainly another tropical rainmaker for TX (at least the southern half). -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
Wouldn't expect to see the totals TS Alberto brought. But wouldn’t expect it at all, to be dry this weekend either. Anything tropical (even just a popcorn shower) can actually have a downpour. Even today still getting some cells moving onshore about the region. Brownsville & Corpus VWP radars showing LL flow starting to tilt northeastward. So that next trop entity going into the SW Gulf is starting to gain cyclonic characteristics. - Can’t also forget back in May (especially the way things have gone since the past month), that the models/ensembles literally promised us the furnace High would’ve came in and just dominated this month in June. But…, that just didn’t happen. If PW stays 1.7” at least, around the coastal region through next week (after next SW Gulf entity) which is fairly probable all things considered now, can still get at least some cells popping up about the typical daily inland moving sea breeze front. Also still seeing notable thunder probs (at least 10 - 20% areas) on multi-global model consensus into next weekend (to end June). -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
Even though Alberto is pretty much done, still getting TS force gusts around here this afternoon. Deep convective inflow feeder bands this morning were still quite heavy at times also (even though PW has sig dropped from yesterday evening). Definitely over 3”/hr rates, but could’ve easily been 4”/hr +. Rockport, has come in with right around 10 in. rainfall in that area. But not sure if that’s the entire total from TS Alberto this week on the storm report posted today. Especially this morning’s deep convective activity over the coastal bend region. - Still does not look like it’s going to dry out with another entity in the SW Gulf this weekend/early next week. So the flooding potential will still be in place around here. Especially with the low FFGs brought by TS Alberto now. Even through next weekend (end of June), both Euro & GFS still holding onto aoa 2” PWs at times over the Eastern half of the state (even in NTX). -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
PW is now just under 3 in. on Corpus 0z obs upper-air sounding this evening (models had insisted 3 since the past week). 2.8 in. on Brownsville sounding. - VWP, on Corpus radar showing 40 kts easterly (tilting southeasterly ML) flow now this evening. But getting next to 50 kts now around 5 Kft on Brownsville radar. Wind has picked up again here on the ground also and been getting somewhat more sustained TS storm force winds in the bands moving ashore a few hours ago before dark. CAPE has picked up, as well as Effective & BRN shear values have sig picked up into supercell range now (both about 40). Tropical supercells are usually only transient with very brief & localized spin-ups (and obviously no hail due to very high FZL in these fully tropical environments). But SPC of course, has posted a tornado watch until 7 am tomorrow: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0437.html -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
Likely so, which explains why there isn’t too much going on east, offshore right now. I’m even seeing some areas of ‘clear sky’ on vis satellite east of Brownsville. But also, seeing more deep convection starting to wrap around Alberto further southeast. The center of circulation is pretty evident on daytime satellite right now in the SW Gulf. I’m waiting to get on the ‘feeder side’ as there’s usually more persistent deep convection & thunder activity (obviously very high(est) rain rates) on the Eastern periphery of the circulation. All the very deep moist DL inflow coming from southeastern Gulf & Caribbean. ML lapse rates are typically more elevated in that region with these tropical systems (6 - 7 range). Can see 2 fairly notable feeder bands offshore to the east, with one starting to train into SETX. It should start to fill in again offshore in the next couple hours (but especially this evening). -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
That’s literally one of the very best things when these convective tropical events happen this time of year. Last week was pretty hot (though normal STX summer heat/humidity) around here also. So I’m getting a good A/C break today, indeed. -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
Been raining pretty hard here for most, if not all this morning, but haven’t heard any thunder around me even though seeing some thunder cells moving around - west of Rockport in the last hour or so. But seeing a new, deeper convective band getting its act together just offshore of the coastal bend right now. Wind has died off despite a 30 - 35 kt flow just off the surface on BRO & CRP vwp radar. And mostly easterly, unidirectional now as well. Up to 40 kts @ H5. It was actually windy last night before TC 1 was named Alberto earlier today. -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
WPC maintaining Moderate risk area in both latest Day 2 & 3 ERO outlooks today over mid-coastal region, but still seems unjustifiable in D2 period over SETX. D3 period reasoning is much more justifiable. Especially with the still projected to be about 3 in. PW area moving onshore by then. - CRP office has now issued flood watch in afternoon update. - - - GFS still going unrealistic with 25” bullseye accumulation total further inland in latest 12z run today. Euro has trended a bit lower (was just above 10” on coast) which indicates slightly better chance TC development happening over western Gulf but definitely still supports abnormally high or very heavy rainfall either way this week with an almost full 1.00 value now on 24hr precip extreme wx index. - Though, most of the European models do also support 10+ in. rainfall over lower-middle coast. - It has been fairly dry in Brownsville area or lower coast, but not that dry. Seeing how these deep tropical convective influences (rain rates very easily over 3”/hr) have happened in past 2 decades in June, it can sometimes very easily go from an existing drought to deluge in just a matter of a day or two (with enough training/banding/convective organization). -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
MCS and Spring thunder/severe season has pretty much ended for the state now. ML lapse rates have really dropped since a week ago (has been even < 5.0 C/km at times on BRO & CRP soundings). - All to my dismay. - - - - - In any case going into TX tropical season now, GFS is really (likely overdoing) rainfall accumulation through next week, showing > 10 in. over STX in latest 0z run tonight with convective feedback problems likely involved. Euro remains much more steady & conservative with just a few inches. Which would be the more likely scenario. Especially, if Bay of Campeche disturbance does go TS (deeper moisture ‘get held further south). Both models though, have been showing areas of up to an impressive 3+, PW over the Western Gulf next week (since a couple days ago or so). - - Multi-global model consensus thunder/deeper convection probs still on the higher side Wednesday morning - Thursday evening, over much of TX coast. -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
Saw towering cumulus (convergence bands) early this morning moving onshore around here. So subsidence from H5 furnace High over the state now is not strong (despite lack of moisture aloft currently over the coastal region). H5 heights are just barely above 590dm around here. Pretty weak for STX standards. - - - - - Both Euro and GFS showing a fairly deep northerly M-UL flow & some notable DL shear over the state for this time of year, this upcoming week on the northeastern periphery of High moving further west-southwest again back over Mex. And, the cutoff H5 Low sitting just west of Baja. - - - - - That should cause some decent ML shortwave energy from that Low to curve east around the northern side of the High and then southeast - southward, deep into the state as the High is still projected to be pretty weak/small (still just around 590dm center) on GFS today. Which I wouldn’t doubt, all things considered lately. Euro this morning is a little more bias. Overall so far, a sig turnaround compared to June last year in 2023 when the furnace High really grew & strengthened like hell on earth by mid-month. Also, still not seeing a real strong signal on the furnace High really taking over either on ensembles the next couple of weeks. GEFS and EPS are actually starting to trend upward on Total QPF at the end of cycles over the Eastern half of state on latest runs. - - - ‘Will see how July goes with the furnace High (which normally starts to take over more then). But I’m basically calling this a “make-up” summer for 2024 now, as we also got a meandering H5 Low or wave starting to show up just east of the coastal region & some 2+ in. PWs moving over the coast (more so over SETX) on both models, after Fathers Day. -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1106.html - Hasn’t moved much and been going on for about 4 hours now in the same area near/around the mid-upper coast. -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
12z CRP obs sounding this morning is convectively primed with a P. Only caveat is a bit of 700Mb warm nose. - - - Will see how much of that built-up energy is realized today/night, but already seeing a line of cells popping up fairly quick in the past hour just south of San Antonio - near Victoria, with an outflow coming from the overnight upstream MCS activity in the panhandle and western hill country. There appears to be a decent mid/upper shortwave approaching the region from the west on 12z UA compiled data on SPC this morning also (decent area of 300Mb divergence just west of middle Rio Grande). -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
‘Really kind of doubting that’ll happen for at least the next 2 weeks. Especially over NTX/ETX where there’s been lots of convective stuff going on quite persistently since end of April. Even starting June now, there’s still lots of significant influence from SS still in place over all of the state. Which isn’t typical on summer’s doorstep now. Especially down around here. Models (especially Euro & ensembles) just got way too excited on the typical, controlling furnace 500Mb High this time of year really taking over the state a few weeks ago. And we’ve been basically getting the exact opposite of that. -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
Watching evolution & southward progression of the new MCCs ongoing in the hill country (northwest of Austin), and in NM going into tonight, as of typing this. Looks to definitely effect San Antonio area this evening or overnight. - - - Got a strong outflow front from the MCS moving through Houston area and out over the Gulf earlier this morning with some 50 mph gusts and heard some nice CGs, along with some more modest rainfall. Things are probably too stable now over NTX - SETX for much of anything else through tonight from this morning’s sharply organized system. But would think it’ll pick up again in those regions by later tomorrow/night. Especially with some better ML shortwave energy projected to track through the state at times this weekend on both Euro & GFS. -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
It’s been a fairly busy week for me, but did cash in on Tuesday night’s MCS from the western part of state that had a grade C+ overall, thunder show around me with some pretty frequent lightning for an hour. Not a lot of CGs though. But was nice either way. Especially before an embedded deep convective band came over me with almost constant thunder rumbles. Watching hill country linear MCS near Austin (or its effects further south later today/tonight). Shear & instability values are still pretty high around here (50 kts eff. shear & still abnormal 8 C/km ML lapse rates, and no-brainer CAPE/moisture on 0z BRO & CRP soundings). Main svr threat (if any) with ongoing hill country MCS early this morning looks to be wind with its notable linear orientation. These practically unlimited MCSs tracking southeast through NWTX - NTX are tracking faster and further southward now into the state with increased west-northwesterly ML flow (which should mitigate a sig flood threat also). It’s almost literally been becoming one MCS after one MCS after one MCS in the northern part since the last 2 or 3 days. No complaints from me as long I get in on some of that trailing thunder action into this weekend. Models also showing some stronger ML shortwave energy here & there tracking through the state this weekend as well. - - - - Also, ‘really liking those projected H5 heights on GFS/GEFS the next couple days or so (even into second week of June). The furnace High is pretty far southwest of the state now, and not really strong either (seeing 594dm over western Mex). The 588dm line is pretty close to me now as well. Which thankfully, is pretty good this time of year. -
May 16 - June 4, 2024 Severe Weather
Stx_Thunder replied to Quincy's topic in Central/Western States
Knowing well over the years how MCS activity goes this time of year in TX, that’s bound to happen as it very rarely fails around Houston, especially. But the same (concerning impacts) could be said for a large part of the state later today. Though especially now with daytime heating coming into the mix (aside from adequate CAPE & shear). And the H5 subtropical High is moving further west away from TX as I got an almost due-northerly 500Mb flow now on 12z (BRO & CRP) UA sounding data here in STX this morning. -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
There were some pretty cold storm cloud tops on satellite earlier tonight near lower Rio Grande as the MCS activity was about to get into deep STX. But especially the MCC near Laredo off to the west (colder than -80 C tops). Still some uncertainly in convective & severe evolution later today (especially because of likely numerous outflow interactions in CTX/NTX ). But overall, the environment aloft over much of state is still looking pretty favorable and there will likely be enough shear either way for supercells & stronger/severe clusters or segments. Saw near 3” in. hail indications an hour ago on new individual storms ongoing over TX/OK border near/north of Wichita Falls (will likely consolidate into another MCS that’ll likely determine today’s severe for ETX/SETX during daytime today). - - - - - Models & CAMs never do really well this time of year with especially large MCS evolution & propagation around the state (especially into southern half & coast). Euro/EPS just wasn’t realistic with H5 heights to begin with. Especially still being very early in the hot season. Outside of convective forecasting, I don’t trust Euro anyway when it comes to temp/height related things at all. Even with cold fronts. GFS/GEFS does better overall concerning those kinds of longer range forecasting things. -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
Both GFS & Euro been showing stronger and stronger signs of the furnace 500mb High weakening & moving further southwest away from the state a bit this upcoming week (could stay that way into at least the first week of June also which could increase flooding potential again in NTX/ETX as both models also trending upward on rainfall totals into beginning of June). It’s definitely looking more convectively interesting with likely, better or bigger MCS activity propagating farther south (including into STX with some heavy rainfall with 2+ in. PW projections which is easily achievable by this time of year), starting later on Memorial Day. But particularly Tuesday - Wednesday and late this week/end, as there’s very notably steep ML lapse rates, along with DL shear 40 - 50 kts projected over a good amount of the state. Both still abnormally high in late May now. - Saw ML lapse rates on Brownsville 12z sounding two mornings ago on Friday, of 9+ C/km. Definitely steeper than normal down here in late May (even 8 too). No doubt about that. You may want to keep in mind that South TX can actually get upstream MCS activity typically through about mid June. Especially with SS flow influence still in place in the mid-upper levels (as has been the case many years during past 2 decades). It may be officially summer at the surface around here (that’s always typical by later May in STX). But that isn’t normally the case aloft most years until the latter part of June. Was not convinced last weekend on EPS H5 height projections for the end of May as it was wobbling around on runs and going as high as almost 600 dm. Which just isn’t plausible so early in the hot season. Even in STX. Especially with EN influence basically gone now. GEFS was more consistent, and SPC daily observed UA 500mb data down here during this past week has been much more closely reflecting GEFS H5 height prediction from last week (staying around 590dm which is pretty close to normal in STX). I’m very convinced now we’re not going to have the kind of hot/dry persistence of Summer 2023. At least around the coastal region. With LN creeping back, there’ll likely be some more tropical activity also later this summer. But doesn’t translate to a hurricane for TX coast this year. Especially coming off a very formidable EN phase just this past winter - spring. That’s never happened before on climate history the past couple decades. -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
I don’t see any actual large hail there (2+ diameter), except maybe that icon that’s blocked out on the left side of the warning outline box.