Stx_Thunder

Even though Alberto is pretty much done, still getting TS force gusts around here this afternoon. Deep convective inflow feeder bands this morning were still quite heavy at times also (even though PW has sig dropped from yesterday evening). Definitely over 3”/hr rates, but could’ve easily been 4”/hr +. Rockport, has come in with right around 10 in. rainfall in that area. But not sure if that’s the entire total from TS Alberto this week on the storm report posted today. Especially this morning’s deep convective activity over the coastal bend region. - Still does not look like it’s going to dry out with another entity in the SW Gulf this weekend/early next week. So the flooding potential will still be in place around here. Especially with the low FFGs brought by TS Alberto now. Even through next weekend (end of June), both Euro & GFS still holding onto aoa 2” PWs at times over the Eastern half of the state (even in NTX).

PW is now just under 3 in. on Corpus 0z obs upper-air sounding this evening (models had insisted 3 since the past week). 2.8 in. on Brownsville sounding. - VWP, on Corpus radar showing 40 kts easterly (tilting southeasterly ML) flow now this evening. But getting next to 50 kts now around 5 Kft on Brownsville radar. Wind has picked up again here on the ground also and been getting somewhat more sustained TS storm force winds in the bands moving ashore a few hours ago before dark. CAPE has picked up, as well as Effective & BRN shear values have sig picked up into supercell range now (both about 40). Tropical supercells are usually only transient with very brief & localized spin-ups (and obviously no hail due to very high FZL in these fully tropical environments). But SPC of course, has posted a tornado watch until 7 am tomorrow: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0437.html

Likely so, which explains why there isn’t too much going on east, offshore right now. I’m even seeing some areas of ‘clear sky’ on vis satellite east of Brownsville. But also, seeing more deep convection starting to wrap around Alberto further southeast. The center of circulation is pretty evident on daytime satellite right now in the SW Gulf. I’m waiting to get on the ‘feeder side’ as there’s usually more persistent deep convection & thunder activity (obviously very high(est) rain rates) on the Eastern periphery of the circulation. All the very deep moist DL inflow coming from southeastern Gulf & Caribbean. ML lapse rates are typically more elevated in that region with these tropical systems (6 - 7 range). Can see 2 fairly notable feeder bands offshore to the east, with one starting to train into SETX. It should start to fill in again offshore in the next couple hours (but especially this evening).

That’s literally one of the very best things when these convective tropical events happen this time of year. Last week was pretty hot (though normal STX summer heat/humidity) around here also. So I’m getting a good A/C break today, indeed.

Been raining pretty hard here for most, if not all this morning, but haven’t heard any thunder around me even though seeing some thunder cells moving around - west of Rockport in the last hour or so. But seeing a new, deeper convective band getting its act together just offshore of the coastal bend right now. Wind has died off despite a 30 - 35 kt flow just off the surface on BRO & CRP vwp radar. And mostly easterly, unidirectional now as well. Up to 40 kts @ H5. It was actually windy last night before TC 1 was named Alberto earlier today.

WPC maintaining Moderate risk area in both latest Day 2 & 3 ERO outlooks today over mid-coastal region, but still seems unjustifiable in D2 period over SETX. D3 period reasoning is much more justifiable. Especially with the still projected to be about 3 in. PW area moving onshore by then. - CRP office has now issued flood watch in afternoon update. - - - GFS still going unrealistic with 25” bullseye accumulation total further inland in latest 12z run today. Euro has trended a bit lower (was just above 10” on coast) which indicates slightly better chance TC development happening over western Gulf but definitely still supports abnormally high or very heavy rainfall either way this week with an almost full 1.00 value now on 24hr precip extreme wx index. - Though, most of the European models do also support 10+ in. rainfall over lower-middle coast. - It has been fairly dry in Brownsville area or lower coast, but not that dry. Seeing how these deep tropical convective influences (rain rates very easily over 3”/hr) have happened in past 2 decades in June, it can sometimes very easily go from an existing drought to deluge in just a matter of a day or two (with enough training/banding/convective organization).

MCS and Spring thunder/severe season has pretty much ended for the state now. ML lapse rates have really dropped since a week ago (has been even < 5.0 C/km at times on BRO & CRP soundings). - All to my dismay. - - - - - In any case going into TX tropical season now, GFS is really (likely overdoing) rainfall accumulation through next week, showing > 10 in. over STX in latest 0z run tonight with convective feedback problems likely involved. Euro remains much more steady & conservative with just a few inches. Which would be the more likely scenario. Especially, if Bay of Campeche disturbance does go TS (deeper moisture ‘get held further south). Both models though, have been showing areas of up to an impressive 3+, PW over the Western Gulf next week (since a couple days ago or so). - - Multi-global model consensus thunder/deeper convection probs still on the higher side Wednesday morning - Thursday evening, over much of TX coast.

Saw towering cumulus (convergence bands) early this morning moving onshore around here. So subsidence from H5 furnace High over the state now is not strong (despite lack of moisture aloft currently over the coastal region). H5 heights are just barely above 590dm around here. Pretty weak for STX standards. - - - - - Both Euro and GFS showing a fairly deep northerly M-UL flow & some notable DL shear over the state for this time of year, this upcoming week on the northeastern periphery of High moving further west-southwest again back over Mex. And, the cutoff H5 Low sitting just west of Baja. - - - - - That should cause some decent ML shortwave energy from that Low to curve east around the northern side of the High and then southeast - southward, deep into the state as the High is still projected to be pretty weak/small (still just around 590dm center) on GFS today. Which I wouldn’t doubt, all things considered lately. Euro this morning is a little more bias. Overall so far, a sig turnaround compared to June last year in 2023 when the furnace High really grew & strengthened like hell on earth by mid-month. Also, still not seeing a real strong signal on the furnace High really taking over either on ensembles the next couple of weeks. GEFS and EPS are actually starting to trend upward on Total QPF at the end of cycles over the Eastern half of state on latest runs. - - - ‘Will see how July goes with the furnace High (which normally starts to take over more then). But I’m basically calling this a “make-up” summer for 2024 now, as we also got a meandering H5 Low or wave starting to show up just east of the coastal region & some 2+ in. PWs moving over the coast (more so over SETX) on both models, after Fathers Day.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1106.html - Hasn’t moved much and been going on for about 4 hours now in the same area near/around the mid-upper coast.

12z CRP obs sounding this morning is convectively primed with a P. Only caveat is a bit of 700Mb warm nose. - - - Will see how much of that built-up energy is realized today/night, but already seeing a line of cells popping up fairly quick in the past hour just south of San Antonio - near Victoria, with an outflow coming from the overnight upstream MCS activity in the panhandle and western hill country. There appears to be a decent mid/upper shortwave approaching the region from the west on 12z UA compiled data on SPC this morning also (decent area of 300Mb divergence just west of middle Rio Grande).

‘Really kind of doubting that’ll happen for at least the next 2 weeks. Especially over NTX/ETX where there’s been lots of convective stuff going on quite persistently since end of April. Even starting June now, there’s still lots of significant influence from SS still in place over all of the state. Which isn’t typical on summer’s doorstep now. Especially down around here. Models (especially Euro & ensembles) just got way too excited on the typical, controlling furnace 500Mb High this time of year really taking over the state a few weeks ago. And we’ve been basically getting the exact opposite of that.

Watching evolution & southward progression of the new MCCs ongoing in the hill country (northwest of Austin), and in NM going into tonight, as of typing this. Looks to definitely effect San Antonio area this evening or overnight. - - - Got a strong outflow front from the MCS moving through Houston area and out over the Gulf earlier this morning with some 50 mph gusts and heard some nice CGs, along with some more modest rainfall. Things are probably too stable now over NTX - SETX for much of anything else through tonight from this morning’s sharply organized system. But would think it’ll pick up again in those regions by later tomorrow/night. Especially with some better ML shortwave energy projected to track through the state at times this weekend on both Euro & GFS.

It’s been a fairly busy week for me, but did cash in on Tuesday night’s MCS from the western part of state that had a grade C+ overall, thunder show around me with some pretty frequent lightning for an hour. Not a lot of CGs though. But was nice either way. Especially before an embedded deep convective band came over me with almost constant thunder rumbles. Watching hill country linear MCS near Austin (or its effects further south later today/tonight). Shear & instability values are still pretty high around here (50 kts eff. shear & still abnormal 8 C/km ML lapse rates, and no-brainer CAPE/moisture on 0z BRO & CRP soundings). Main svr threat (if any) with ongoing hill country MCS early this morning looks to be wind with its notable linear orientation. These practically unlimited MCSs tracking southeast through NWTX - NTX are tracking faster and further southward now into the state with increased west-northwesterly ML flow (which should mitigate a sig flood threat also). It’s almost literally been becoming one MCS after one MCS after one MCS in the northern part since the last 2 or 3 days. No complaints from me as long I get in on some of that trailing thunder action into this weekend. Models also showing some stronger ML shortwave energy here & there tracking through the state this weekend as well. - - - - Also, ‘really liking those projected H5 heights on GFS/GEFS the next couple days or so (even into second week of June). The furnace High is pretty far southwest of the state now, and not really strong either (seeing 594dm over western Mex). The 588dm line is pretty close to me now as well. Which thankfully, is pretty good this time of year.

Knowing well over the years how MCS activity goes this time of year in TX, that’s bound to happen as it very rarely fails around Houston, especially. But the same (concerning impacts) could be said for a large part of the state later today. Though especially now with daytime heating coming into the mix (aside from adequate CAPE & shear). And the H5 subtropical High is moving further west away from TX as I got an almost due-northerly 500Mb flow now on 12z (BRO & CRP) UA sounding data here in STX this morning.

There were some pretty cold storm cloud tops on satellite earlier tonight near lower Rio Grande as the MCS activity was about to get into deep STX. But especially the MCC near Laredo off to the west (colder than -80 C tops). Still some uncertainly in convective & severe evolution later today (especially because of likely numerous outflow interactions in CTX/NTX ). But overall, the environment aloft over much of state is still looking pretty favorable and there will likely be enough shear either way for supercells & stronger/severe clusters or segments. Saw near 3” in. hail indications an hour ago on new individual storms ongoing over TX/OK border near/north of Wichita Falls (will likely consolidate into another MCS that’ll likely determine today’s severe for ETX/SETX during daytime today). - - - - - Models & CAMs never do really well this time of year with especially large MCS evolution & propagation around the state (especially into southern half & coast). Euro/EPS just wasn’t realistic with H5 heights to begin with. Especially still being very early in the hot season. Outside of convective forecasting, I don’t trust Euro anyway when it comes to temp/height related things at all. Even with cold fronts. GFS/GEFS does better overall concerning those kinds of longer range forecasting things.

Both GFS & Euro been showing stronger and stronger signs of the furnace 500mb High weakening & moving further southwest away from the state a bit this upcoming week (could stay that way into at least the first week of June also which could increase flooding potential again in NTX/ETX as both models also trending upward on rainfall totals into beginning of June). It’s definitely looking more convectively interesting with likely, better or bigger MCS activity propagating farther south (including into STX with some heavy rainfall with 2+ in. PW projections which is easily achievable by this time of year), starting later on Memorial Day. But particularly Tuesday - Wednesday and late this week/end, as there’s very notably steep ML lapse rates, along with DL shear 40 - 50 kts projected over a good amount of the state. Both still abnormally high in late May now. - Saw ML lapse rates on Brownsville 12z sounding two mornings ago on Friday, of 9+ C/km. Definitely steeper than normal down here in late May (even 8 too). No doubt about that. You may want to keep in mind that South TX can actually get upstream MCS activity typically through about mid June. Especially with SS flow influence still in place in the mid-upper levels (as has been the case many years during past 2 decades). It may be officially summer at the surface around here (that’s always typical by later May in STX). But that isn’t normally the case aloft most years until the latter part of June. Was not convinced last weekend on EPS H5 height projections for the end of May as it was wobbling around on runs and going as high as almost 600 dm. Which just isn’t plausible so early in the hot season. Even in STX. Especially with EN influence basically gone now. GEFS was more consistent, and SPC daily observed UA 500mb data down here during this past week has been much more closely reflecting GEFS H5 height prediction from last week (staying around 590dm which is pretty close to normal in STX). I’m very convinced now we’re not going to have the kind of hot/dry persistence of Summer 2023. At least around the coastal region. With LN creeping back, there’ll likely be some more tropical activity also later this summer. But doesn’t translate to a hurricane for TX coast this year. Especially coming off a very formidable EN phase just this past winter - spring. That’s never happened before on climate history the past couple decades.

I don’t see any actual large hail there (2+ diameter), except maybe that icon that’s blocked out on the left side of the warning outline box.

Got my share of a very decent thunder show & rainfall down here through daytime morning hours Friday (yesterday). Had one severe warned mini cluster (provided some good convective blowoff shield lightning strikes during the couple of hours prior), near me around noonday from the southwest that had literally no CGs around when was it was about to come over, then BAM! (almost literally) Had a feeling that was gonna happen. Was pretty bright, inside. Even though didn’t really get dark outside right ahead of the cluster. Nowhere as crazy dark outside as what happened in Houston on thursday. Rain rates in the cluster here were definitely over 3”/hr. Definitely an inch total yesterday. Power went out for about 3 seconds. Saw it was a fairly powerful negative CG on lightning analysis (150 kiloamps). - - - That looks to be about it convective and/or MCS wise for the state till Thursday (upcoming week). And possibly again by Memorial Day (seeing a solid “higher” probability signal area again in NTX). Not seeing a strong signal for continued sig flooding potential in ETX & especially closer to Houston area. With all the dry, very warm/hot days ahead into the upcoming week on GFS/Euro, ETX should be able to dry out fairly well. Flood-producing MCS activity later next week doesn’t seem likely either unless there’s a growing signal on models in coming days for things to really pick up again Memorial Day weekend into final week of May. Which is fairly possible as the furnace ML High doesn’t look like it’s going to hold really strong over the state as I see latest GFS runs have backed off on 500mb heights some for coming week. Both GFS & Euro holding mainly steady around 590dm @ H5 in STX all week. Which isn’t too bad around here by this time of year.

It’s MLB season. The Astros were just playing as scheduled tonight at Minute Maid ballpark, and it looks like they’re gonna win also which is a nice finish to today’s powerful convective action in Houston. Nothing severe there lol 62 kts seems on spot around Houston as most people can definitely lose power at those sudden gust speeds (at least around this part of the country). But the TDS signature on radar and the broken windows on those 2 downtown skyscrapers that @cheese007 posted about suggests there may have been a very brief spinup right around there as the thunder line was moving in (on the leading edge).

The ABC13 tower cam in Houston survived the convective wind onslaught from what I was seeing on the YouTube livestream just a short time ago now that the line has moved off. The live rail cams (with audio) like this one seem to have gone out as it’s still just replaying the stream when the thunder line was moving through the metro: https://youtube.com/watch?v=Uqq-1HPjJ2o I thought it was my connection though. But power went out for those railroad cameras in the city from what I’m seeing in the live chat.

Was watching the front edge of the convective line from the west about to get into Houston on ABC13 tower cam live stream a short while ago. https://youtu.be/z-VVLWWvAEU It was already very cloudy ahead of it, and then it literally got DARK in just a matter of minutes when it came in. Saw a few power flashes also. I’m almost sure it was straight line winds seeing how it looked on this tower cam that faces southwest - west. - Crazy how it went to that scene after how it looked at 8:40 am today on Houston uptown Earthcam. https://www.earthcam.com/usa/texas/houston/?cam=houston

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0276&yr=2024 Large, elongated MCS closing in on Houston. Looks fairly impressive over ETX with a good area of -70 C to -80 C cloud tops embedded.

WPC finally going with a High risk area now in ETX. It’s been a good while since I’ve seen any high risk ERO here in TX. Since 2021 if I’m not mistaken. Currently seeing thunder activity in NTX (west of DFW area) getting its act together going southeast. Overall and all things considered on models since the past few days, it’s looking pretty busy all-around convective wise for ETX/SETX through today.

CAMs don’t tend to do well with MCS propagation/evolution southward into southern half of state this time of year (except ARWs at times). Latest Euro 0z run tonight has most plausible scenario for the time of year (May being the most active spring month in TX) and has been doing fairly well with convection since start of year, showing pretty large MCS going all the way down to the upper coast. As long as organized activity is going on in NTX down into ETX earlier today (Thursday), with all the convective/outflow processes upstream the front should be pretty close to Houston by evening. None of the reliable models are showing it but unless shortwave energy tracks much further north or 850mb flow veers more westerly late in the day in SETX, there shouldn’t be any reason why Houston wouldn’t get hit fairly hard (probly Galveston also) as well especially coming in at the right time of day with daytime heating assistance (little/no sfc CIN) also before the event is over around there (or offshore and/or in LA state) by late evening. - - - It’s looking dry now for most of state Friday with the front further south except down here (but everywhere for weekend into next week). I should still be able to cash in nicely once more Friday before things really start to dry out. But the growing influence from the typical furnace subtrop High out west next week might not be that strong or long-lasting as even latest GFS runs are showing some possible MCS activity later next week, thankfully. I’m fairly convinced now this summer, not going to have the kind of hot or rain-free persistence like last summer (except maybe NTX). Especially with any kind of EN not in the cards the rest of this year.

It’s very abnormal either way for mid May standards anywhere in the state. The models might be overdoing the values a little as they’ve trended slightly lower today, but even near 2.5 “ PW pooling south of the frontal boundary (that will be in ETX tomorrow) is definitely still way above normal for this time of year. Models & CAMs honing in on convective or more likely MCS action moving southeast into SETX by late afternoon from NTX. With all the ML energy and surface focus from the frontal/outflow boundaries in the region and mostly parallel storm motion flow to it promoting cell training, along with a decent LL southerly inflow jet from the gulf (pretty strong positive theta advection), could have some actually high rain rates (potentially 5”/hr +), in the strongest storms with PW close to 2.5” further south into Houston and the coast, also.