Stx_Thunder

MJO does not guarantee any kind of cold air outbreak over TX. A cooler/wetter pattern, yes, for the most part. But even that is not always a guarantee in the latter phases you wrote. As I've seen over the years. I looked at the February dates you wrote (1989, 1996, 2021), and they all involved warm Januarys overall. This past January (2025), was not. As the majority of last month involved below normal temps, and for extended periods across most of the state. So I'm even less convinced now we're going to see any real cold air intrusion for the rest of this month (February). GEFS is staying consistent on temps the next 2 weeks. Also showing a zonal/southwesterly upper flow pattern over much of the Plains. Which doesn't make it favorable for Arctic intrusions to come this far south. CPC is also noting the zonal flow pattern in their 8 - 14 outlook discussion with only average confidence (3 out of 5) of below normal temps across the Plains. They've also been trending north on the above normal temps here in TX the past few days.

No real complaints about this ongoing warm/ridging pattern (especially how chilly January was overall). Not seeing any strong signal for another Arctic air intrusion or outbreak in the state for the rest of the season. The next few frontal airmass intrusions are mostly just Canadian origin with the real cold air firmly staying north/east. And of course, Canadian model is doing its usual extreme bias junk. Euro & GFS aren't anywhere near as cold in the coming weeks. And their ensembles are starting to trend warmer for later February. Though it'll probably be cooler overall than of late, and going into March. Considering also the AO looks to trend back into a possibly more persistent negative phase for later February. -AO does not always translate to Arctic air intrusion nor outbreak (even during winter).

While the cold spell is finally going away, a potent thunder threat, along with more heavy rainfall (like in December), looks to return at least over the southeastern half of state later this coming week. Along with an established Gulf sector (60s DP) from Del Rio - Houston area, and south. That incoming ML Low also looks to stay deep as it nears the state. Will see how its projected evolution/track trend, but both Euro & GFS are already showing a fairly large H5 circulation literally just west of the panhandle (and over WTX) early Friday. Along with decent swaths of positive vorticity moving across the state starting Wednesday. Shear, MLCAPE, and minimal CIN also there on both globals over the south. Notable ML lapse rates > 7 as well. So definitely wouldn't rule out at least a couple supercells with this multi-round convective event (more interesting to watch), around here. - - -

It's been pretty chilly overall at least here in TX since just after Jan 5 when the first Arctic airmass intrusion came down to the Gulf coast. The only real warm day I've had since then even down here in southern TX was Saturday (18th). It's definitely harder for us to stay warm down here in these states whenever we have these extended cold periods because we're just not use to having to do that for more than a few days at a time most years. I'm personally going to welcome the returning warmth later this week. Even though it doesn't look like anything else like this (even Arctic air intrusions) is going to happen for the rest of the current season in these states, looking at longer range model data in February.

Just read an article about the all-time record February 1895 snowfall. Which had just over 8 in. Today's totals in the vicinity have reached over 9 in. looking at NWS LIX data.

Just under 0.2 in. ice accumulation at NWS Corpus Christi office. Quite significant down here in STX as any actual winter precip accumulation is rare.

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/neworleans/bourbonstreet/?cam=catsmeow2 NWS says measurable snow hasn't happened in New Orleans metro since 1963 (if I'm correct on it being actual snowfall not since back then).

Can hear a little sleet hitting my north-facing windows right now and since about 4 am (when it sounded much louder at times with the strong winds). Seeing some ice particles stuck on grass leaves around the yard and very small ice patches on the roof shingle edges. Reading NWS storm reports within the past few hours from public and broadcast media that have photos & videos of actual sleet accumulation on cars and such around the coastal bend (CRP office) region. - - - Looks all snow cover now in Houston metro:

Been very windy here near the coastal bend/mid-coast region since early this evening (gusts up to 50 mph) with the surface Gulf low apparently not far offshore right now. I don't remember where it was this windy in an overrunning Arctic airmass scenario with frozen precip involved. But this could increase the power outage risk overnight - this morning (Tuesday). Especially if any icing from freezing rain/drizzle happens on trees & power lines at the same time. GFS, Euro and NAM all intent now on the sleet line getting all the way down, close to Brownsville later this morning after sunrise. I'm really hoping I can cash in on all sleet/ice pellet event like in the 2021 TX chill. I'm going to be shocked if New Orleans gets any kind of snow accumulation later today. GFS, Euro and NAM all showing that now..

Sleet, reported in San Antonio on 10 pm observations.

Sleet, reported in Houston on 8 pm NWS observation data.

Mean mid-level RH is high right now (about 90%) on DFW 0z upper-air observation data this evening. Low-level is below 50%. Moisture is there overall. But, latest 0z NAM data coming in tonight still is not showing much omega/lift aloft overnight around DFW, and absent by morning (and column really dries out by midday). GFS hasn't been showing much lift either. Just FYI.

It is warmer air advection (not necessarily moisture) due to a southwest/southerly flow usually in the 850Mb - 700Mb or 5 - 10 Kft layer overrunning colder air closer to the surface, causing the advecting cloud deck usually from the western Gulf. Which is common at least in the southern part of state whenever there's a trough out west, and we already have a polar or arctic airmass in place. This was earlier today (15z or 9 am) on Dallas/Fort Worth (FWS) site radar. Showing southwest flow from about 6 Kft or 6,000 Ft (just above 850Mb layer) and up:

Current VWP & 12z upper-air obs this morning in STX already showing a fairly strong southeasterly LL flow (20 - 30 knots up to 850Mb once again like prior to the last major overrunning precip event), with low-level WAA cloud deck firmly in place now looking outside here, now that it's daylight. And areas/bands of light (all liquid) rain developing near lower coast around Brownsville.

The 'possible strong event' topic tag seriously needs to be taken off here as there's basically a 99% probability now the current La Niña phase is going to remain weak, then likely go back to neutral ENSO going into spring. It was only just about a month ago Niña went official, and was already projected to be a weak Niña on dynamical models even back in November. I should also point out, CPC did a poor job with the forecasting. Insisting La Niña would return by the summer last year (which did not happen at all).

GFS & Euro were already projecting decreasing cloud cover N - S in the state through the day Tuesday. Which obviously explains why 40s are starting to show up that day now too. Good you agree on the wild model forecasting because it definitely has been around here since 2025 started. I've never seen such crazy/complicated projections. Especially less than a week out. 'Already makes me wonder how they're going to be like for severe season come spring. 'Would not trust the mesoscale models (except maybe NAM in these winter wx scenarios), as they always have a lot of precip & convective intensity bias around here. Plus, latest 0z GFS tonight is starting to speed up LL drying on Tuesday. Which is definitely plausible, given the strongly reinforced continental north CAA flow by Monday night verifies.

40s showing up in ETX even Tuesday afternoon now on 12z GFS today.

I kind of doubt there's going to be any real snow accumulation with sfc temps hovering around (even above) 32 F, and such un-realistic 850Mb temp projections in ETX, Tuesday. Looks more like a sleet event, and ice storm in SETX. After this week, that looks to be it for any more real Arctic air intrusions for the rest of the season looking at the CFS. Even GEFS & EPS projections are going warmer (than things have been lately) into February. AO is also really starting to trend in a positive phase as well going forward.

Overall, this next Arctic air intrusion is just going to be a glancing blow.. with 40s back on the maps by Wednesday (which I'm not surprised anyone has mentioned here yet). Even in NTX (possibly even Monday too in CTX), on both GFS & Euro. And even on NAM. Which handles these polar/arctic air intrusions the best. And with the AO having already been in a positive phase to now, I can 100% say with confidence it's certainly not going be anything like the 2021 chill (like some were alluding to here.. because of the crazy as usual Canadian output. I guess...). Even Canadian itself has finally started to back off on its absolutely insane junk temp projections from the past several days or so. Except on Wednesday morning lows. Still going down to < 0 F not far north of Houston... The well-below freezing 850Mb temp projections on GFS & Euro also do not look realistic to me. Since even both of those reliable globals are showing the core of the coldest air has trended well northeast over the Great Lakes region. So I doubt there's going to be any real snow accumulation early this week in ETX/SETX. That's about the only winter wx that's actually going to be worth watching for this "outbreak" going into Tuesday morning. I'd be lucky to even see Sleet coming down here in STX (away from any FZRA potential).

Would not count on it. AO (Arctic Oscillation) is trending back to + phase for later January. Just FYI.

DFW still reporting light snow as of 5:00 am. Starting to see some enhanced echos develop on base radar right now in & around the metro area, moving east.

Seeing that shifted northerly flow now on Dallas VWP radar and surface obs, up to 3 Kft. 'Doesn't look like too much more to go around tonight though for the rest of this winter wx event.

CAA coming back in the LLs by mid-evening into the area. Just as I wrote in that earlier post.

Not when it's southeasterly in TX (out of the Gulf) in the lowest levels because it definitely both warms & moistens, decreasing wet-bulbing a lot faster than if southwest. I definitely saw that in action today. That was really the 'monkey in the wrench' in this setup. Overall, this whole winter wx forecasting scenario has been nothing short of interesting. No one really knew how it was actually going to pan out. Main thing is, it did not turn out to be a dismal rain-only bust around DFW.

Believable, as that northerly reinforcing low-level CAA surge is showing up now on the western hill country VAD wind profile (SJT, DYX radars).