Stx_Thunder

Mostly boring wx this week into early next week. Though more cloud cover should be coming back and maybe some fog the next 2 days ahead of Friday night's incoming trough. Convective parameters not looking impressive Friday night and with 500Mb High out over the southern Gulf, will likely limit the quality of moisture/instability return for better storms or severe. 500Mb heights are currently above 580 here in STX on 0Z observed upper air data this evening (which is fairly high for this time of year). Models kind of over-performed on last week's thunder coverage/intensity (probly rainfall too). And the main trough that brought the last round of storms over the southern half of state last Wednesday night turned out to be more positively-tilted than forecast. I ended up missing all of that action off to the north in San Antonio & Houston regions. Though, it was funny how it cleared out very nicely on Thursday here in STX (behind that departing trough), then all the lower level clouds and dampness came right back all day on Friday ahead of another trough that caused some other storms over NTX & SETX ahead of the cold front that evening last week. ---------- Later next week could get pretty interesting as main globals/ensembles have been showing some persistent troughing setting up out west going into week of Feb 12th.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0085.html * A few reports of hail up to 2" diameter in discussion area.

DPs are in the 70s now here on TX coast. More than what models had been depicting during the past days. Severe storm instability and shear parameters (including sufficient mixed-layer CAPE) are looking fairly good for the southern half of TX where SPC has been expanding MRGL risk in D1 & D2 outlooks. Latest globals and especially CAM runs during today have been showing some pretty strong/organized storms (possible MCS) popping up in STX near the Rio Grande (southwest of San Antonio & Laredo) this evening and progressing fairly rapidly east/northeast. 18Z GFS showing some robust development even in western TX also this evening. ----- Already seeing some fairly major thunder going on now over northwestern Mexico (southwest of El Paso which is not too common there) on the southern quadrant of that next incoming shortwave that's got a fairly well-defined circulation on visible satellite over Arizona right now.

Thunder activity here on coast last night and this morning was fair with not a lot of lightning. Even though was 2 rounds. Apparently MUCAPE itself stayed virtually non-existent overall through the entire night (even with all the substantial south-easterly WAA aloft up to 50 kts), looking at 12Z soundings this morning. Though, convective activity was fairly organized with more widespread colder cloud tops on satellite early this morning. Actual severe and sfc-based cells looking more questionable Tuesday - Wednesday as Gulf sector doesn't look like it's really going to penetrate onshore looking at today's runs with generally 60 F DPs remaining around coast. Could still be a few (probly elevated) supercells around coast. Especially Wednesday morning. Though thankfully, much better lightning activity still looking pretty good for southern half of state Tuesday night with some actual MUCAPE around by then with still steep LRs.

- Lapse rates between 700Mb & 500Mb unusually high (up to 9.1), with a decent amount of MUCAPE already in place around Brownsville this evening on 0Z observed sounding. Effective shear surprisingly a bit up there already too (45 knots). ------ * EDIT Pretty powerful CGs going on in those storms over NE Mexico near Monterrey:

- Thunder picking up out over ol' Mexico, 'n getting closer.. Can also see that mid/upper level Low spinning on top left (near Arizona)

All the main globals (GFS/Euro/GEM) are still depicting fairly large areas of moderate/heavy icing from Central OK northeast to Southern MO region tonight - Monday morning. Circulation on incoming shortwave out west (southeast of CA) on visible looks fairly potent. But the better real-time potency evidence is seeing up to 55 kts WAA flow now @ 850Mb/5 Kft on KTLX radar's VWP (Norman OK radar I believe). Given that, I wouldn't be surprised about that potential icing over-performance. Looks to be very interesting tonight/Monday up there in this topic region..

Houston, probably no thunder till daytime Monday. But in Southern TX tonight, CAMs honing in around midnight from around Rio Grande City - San Antonio (but could be earlier with deeper cells forming out west over Mex this evening). Euro has been consistent on this also the past several days. But even GFS showing stronger stuff now around that same timeframe in that area also. It already looks to be a pretty strong incoming 500Mb and at least neutrally-tilted shortwave (seeing southeasterly lower-level flow @ 35kts on BRO/CRP radar VWP right now), so could be more organized/near sfc-based storms on mid-upper coast early Monday as at least 60 DPs on coast in most models including GFS & Euro with surface low/warm front nearby. But even further inland could have a few at minimum frequent lightning and small hail producing elevated storms with 40 - 50 kts DL shear also being shown and pretty cool 700Mb/500Mb temps (along with already steep mid-level lapse rates).

Light rain been going on since very early this morning around here. 12Z BRO/CRP soundings this morning (and 0Z yesterday evening) already showing steep mid-level LRs 7 - 8, as I suspected. And deep/efficient WAA near 40 kts all the way up to 700Mb, above this still chilly but extremely shallow residual polar airmass. It doesn't even look like it's at least a kilofoot in depth from the surface around here. Thunder does look to get going here in STX and north toward San Antonio tonight ahead of that first significant and seemingly pretty strong 500Mb shortwave coming out of northern Mex. Both globals & CAMs have been showing this pretty well, and thunder initiation near the Rio Grande around midnight (but can be sooner in the evening with all the WAA already going on observed soundings). Parameters Tuesday - Wednesday still look interesting for stronger storms with hail & maybe damaging wind for the southern half of state. Multi-global model output still has maxed-out thunder probabilities over mid-upper coast in that timeframe also.

Nah, sleet never sucks. And ice storms on a visual standpoint can actually look very interesting with all the glaze and icicles on everything. Snow (just like tornadoes) is just extremely overrated and because of the media. Well the AO (arctic oscillation) is forecast on CPC in the upcoming weeks for later January to go back toward a positive phase, or may already be in the process now. Which typically means warmer weather for the Plains/Central US because of less arctic/polar airmass influence during a positive phase.

I believe that's the result of a shallow polar/arctic airmass. I've seen that a few times during winter on wx data where it can be around 0 F in Denver for example, but at the same time, around + 30 F higher up in the mountains like in Aspen, CO. I've also seen photos taken around Denver not too far up in the mountains above the clouds (where the top of the frontal inversion or cold dome is). Usually around 5 Kft above sea level with those shallow air masses, but it may be higher in that region.

As far as winter wx goes, I find ice/sleet/graupel storms to be way more interesting than snow ones. Especially all the glazing and sometimes Huge icicles on everything in ice storms. And sleet & graupel, sometimes bouncing off everything which is even more fun to both watch & hear as it's happened a few times down here in southern TX (along with a minor ice storm, Christmas snow storm & even a little thundersnow) during the past 20 years. But there's also another type of sleet that I've seen as well that looks like transparent salt particles (instead of the more common white ball type that look more like very tiny hail stones). In ice storms, sure there can be damage involved (especially when icing accumulation gets over 0.25 in. causing bigger trees and more wires to snap). But from what I've seen over the years, they don't seem to be too common up there in this topic's region of the Midwest/Plains. So that also makes it more interesting to see what happens if that's the case. As far as what I peeked at on globals about the potential one next week in this topic's region, GEM/ICON are showing a lot of it in OK, AR, MO with some heavier icing. But.., Euro shows virtually zip ice & surface temps around 40 F in a lot of areas.

Regardless of heavy rainfall, thunder threat is already looking quite good for all of the coastal region and most of the southern half if 500Mb incoming trough is as deep or at least neutrally-tilted, and tracks into the state (as is being predicted so will definitely be 100% to watch). Maybe even later next week too but that other one may track further northeast into the plains. I'm also considering what's been happening in recent weeks (before this hiccup cold snap came), as the subtropical jet has been pretty strong and having major influences around here. This is usually the case in EN winters/springs, and split-jet scenarios, creating even more enhanced lift. NWS Brownsville is calling for spring-like thunderstorm chances early next week in long-term discussion of their AFD from this afternoon. Which means could be actual MCS/MCC activity & multiple rounds. Which would be quite unusual for January. Euro has actually been doing a better job forecasting thunder around the coast lately and does show multiple rounds for southern half of state Monday - Wednesday. AO is also forecast to go back positive for later January so (total instability-wiping) cold snaps shouldn't be a factor anymore for the rest of the month this far south after this current week. Hail threat may also be good with the early week system as 700Mb temps look to be around 0 C on both GFS & Euro (along with steep mid-level LRs on Euro).

Sucks having to run 2 heaters just to keep warm enough inside with this reinforced airmass as the CAA north wind picked up again outside last night. Though am glad it actually cleared out now around the coast as it should definitely push above freezing to around 40 F today (maybe even 60 by tomorrow as the arctic high starts to move away). --- Since it'll likely be much warmer next week (compared to this week), multi-global model output already showing some maxed out thunder probabilities here on the coast with more steep mid-level LRs at times in the state and pretty strong DL shear once again (up to 70 - 80 kts) also on both Euro & GFS, Monday - Wednesday (ahead of next week's incoming trough out west). SPC also already hinting at severe potential for southern plains next week in D4-8 outlook discussion today.

I mean.. I kinda told you about. Even if it's "just" (freezing) drizzle. Don't forget the highways there too in Crush City Nice to know you're getting the whole winter precip platter, and not just (media overemphasized) snow. Only thing you were missing, was graupel. I would absolutely love to see a sleet storm again down here just like in the crazy Feb 2021 chill. But heavier, or especially, thunder sleet.

Seeing icy road condition and vehicle collision (likely icing related) reports in Houston (around metro too) now on TXDOT site.

'Been seeing a number of collision, stalled vehicle, and icy condition reports in San Antonio, on TXDOT since around midnight.

VWP on EWX/HGX/CRP radars already showing pretty strong overrunning WAA around 30 kts @ 5 Kft now that the initial shallow arctic surge is pushing through the coastal region. So looks like freezing drizzle/rain will be a major issue on roads overnight/tomorrow morning around the mid-upper coastal region (already seeing echos starting to show up). Even in Houston it's looking likely, as it's already very close to the freezing mark and wouldn't take much evaporative cooling from precip to reach or drop below 32 F there either (aside from continued CAA and rising pressure on breezy north flow). 850Mb temps not really warm also. San Antonio has been reporting freezing drizzle for a while now this evening. I'm sure some highways are icing over there already.

With respect to temps, latest 12Z NAM-Hires this morning (covering Monday now) is not looking impressive with the incoming cold airmass. I would even say by most means. Also showing actual temps getting down to around freezing (32 F) near the coast early Monday (so freezing drizzle/rain potential still there as well), but NTX isn't looking too cold either. And even that model shows some substantial warming there too, back closer to the freezing mark Monday afternoon. At this point, it's looking more like a very chilly airmass for TX, rather than an actual cold/Arctic one.

Saw post-frontal flow @ 5 Kft, peak 80 kts early this morning on EWX/DFX (San Antonio/Del Rio radars) on VWP. Crazy wx continues..

I would definitely not discount the (historically tried & true) potential for at least some freezing drizzle here around the coast in these shallow arctic airmass scenarios. Which even just a bit of drizzle alone is enough to cause problems on the roads once surface temps reach 32 F. If the incoming arctic airmass dome is indeed quite shallow (generally no more than 2 - 3 Kft above surface), past events during Jan/Feb like that have shown that it doesn't take much for even a really modest southerly (or even southwesterly) WAA overrunning pattern right above the cold dome to create some drizzle because of the strengthening condensation effect. Also, the 850Mb front normally tends to lag quite a bit in these airmass scenarios further south here on the Gulf coast. I was reading on CRP AFD this afternoon that a few of the GFS ensembles were also starting to hint at the potential. HGX has also started to include freezing drizzle in their ZFP in the afternoon update today for Houston as well. 'Should get a better look at the freezing rain/drizzle potential this weekend when NAM starts to come more into play as it's basically the 'shallow airmass expert' model.

Curious to know (since I don't live anywhere near those parts this topic is focused on), exactly how cold is *COLD!* for you guys in that region of the Midwest/Plains? - Along with wind chill? I like how @ StormChazer completely ignored that and went right on to more model data discussion in here lol

There were Lots of significant, non-convective wind reports from TX panhandle all the way east to around Georgia on Monday, watching it on iWeathernet. A lot of those were also AON severe limits. Also, can't forget the 74 MPH non-convective hurricane force gust in Brownsville, TX, that I noted in my previous post, as that is not a common thing down there to note as well. But also, looking at the updated LSRs for Monday, there was apparently some baseball hailstones in the mix as well further east of San Antonio (closer to the coast) early Monday afternoon, with the cold front. ----- I looked at basic historical wx event data for January on Austin/San Antonio NWS page, and the only thing I found that came to that maximum of large hail (3 in. diameter) in that timeframe between Jan 1 - 15, was back in 2017. But, that was west of San Antonio (where it's much more common from supercells). There was also softball hail events back in 2002 of December 23rd. But, even that was also further north/west away from this past Monday's large hail event further south right around the I-10 corridor between San Antonio - Houston. I'd also wonder about the 2.00 in. diameter reported hail near coast in Lake Charles, LA on Monday too. But I haven't looked up historical data there. All of this is already making me wonder a very good amount now about this upcoming severe season. It's possible that even February may also turn out to be quite interesting this year (the way things have been going lately the past few weeks also).

Looks like a lot of wind again for the state (similar to last Sunday - Monday's system), with the next incoming trough/cold front tonight - Friday. A (rare) high wind watch is in effect for my area. I can see now why it was issued as GFS is showing around 70 kts @ 925Mb post-frontal, Friday morning across STX. Also considering what happened in Brownsville with the hurricane force gusts from the LLJ reported there earlier on Monday.