Stx_Thunder

'Been seeing a number of collision, stalled vehicle, and icy condition reports in San Antonio, on TXDOT since around midnight.

VWP on EWX/HGX/CRP radars already showing pretty strong overrunning WAA around 30 kts @ 5 Kft now that the initial shallow arctic surge is pushing through the coastal region. So looks like freezing drizzle/rain will be a major issue on roads overnight/tomorrow morning around the mid-upper coastal region (already seeing echos starting to show up). Even in Houston it's looking likely, as it's already very close to the freezing mark and wouldn't take much evaporative cooling from precip to reach or drop below 32 F there either (aside from continued CAA and rising pressure on breezy north flow). 850Mb temps not really warm also. San Antonio has been reporting freezing drizzle for a while now this evening. I'm sure some highways are icing over there already.

With respect to temps, latest 12Z NAM-Hires this morning (covering Monday now) is not looking impressive with the incoming cold airmass. I would even say by most means. Also showing actual temps getting down to around freezing (32 F) near the coast early Monday (so freezing drizzle/rain potential still there as well), but NTX isn't looking too cold either. And even that model shows some substantial warming there too, back closer to the freezing mark Monday afternoon. At this point, it's looking more like a very chilly airmass for TX, rather than an actual cold/Arctic one.

Saw post-frontal flow @ 5 Kft, peak 80 kts early this morning on EWX/DFX (San Antonio/Del Rio radars) on VWP. Crazy wx continues..

I would definitely not discount the (historically tried & true) potential for at least some freezing drizzle here around the coast in these shallow arctic airmass scenarios. Which even just a bit of drizzle alone is enough to cause problems on the roads once surface temps reach 32 F. If the incoming arctic airmass dome is indeed quite shallow (generally no more than 2 - 3 Kft above surface), past events during Jan/Feb like that have shown that it doesn't take much for even a really modest southerly (or even southwesterly) WAA overrunning pattern right above the cold dome to create some drizzle because of the strengthening condensation effect. Also, the 850Mb front normally tends to lag quite a bit in these airmass scenarios further south here on the Gulf coast. I was reading on CRP AFD this afternoon that a few of the GFS ensembles were also starting to hint at the potential. HGX has also started to include freezing drizzle in their ZFP in the afternoon update today for Houston as well. 'Should get a better look at the freezing rain/drizzle potential this weekend when NAM starts to come more into play as it's basically the 'shallow airmass expert' model.

Curious to know (since I don't live anywhere near those parts this topic is focused on), exactly how cold is *COLD!* for you guys in that region of the Midwest/Plains? - Along with wind chill? I like how @ StormChazer completely ignored that and went right on to more model data discussion in here lol

There were Lots of significant, non-convective wind reports from TX panhandle all the way east to around Georgia on Monday, watching it on iWeathernet. A lot of those were also AON severe limits. Also, can't forget the 74 MPH non-convective hurricane force gust in Brownsville, TX, that I noted in my previous post, as that is not a common thing down there to note as well. But also, looking at the updated LSRs for Monday, there was apparently some baseball hailstones in the mix as well further east of San Antonio (closer to the coast) early Monday afternoon, with the cold front. ----- I looked at basic historical wx event data for January on Austin/San Antonio NWS page, and the only thing I found that came to that maximum of large hail (3 in. diameter) in that timeframe between Jan 1 - 15, was back in 2017. But, that was west of San Antonio (where it's much more common from supercells). There was also softball hail events back in 2002 of December 23rd. But, even that was also further north/west away from this past Monday's large hail event further south right around the I-10 corridor between San Antonio - Houston. I'd also wonder about the 2.00 in. diameter reported hail near coast in Lake Charles, LA on Monday too. But I haven't looked up historical data there. All of this is already making me wonder a very good amount now about this upcoming severe season. It's possible that even February may also turn out to be quite interesting this year (the way things have been going lately the past few weeks also).

Looks like a lot of wind again for the state (similar to last Sunday - Monday's system), with the next incoming trough/cold front tonight - Friday. A (rare) high wind watch is in effect for my area. I can see now why it was issued as GFS is showing around 70 kts @ 925Mb post-frontal, Friday morning across STX. Also considering what happened in Brownsville with the hurricane force gusts from the LLJ reported there earlier on Monday.

Was reading that Euro is trending drier in this morning's Austin/San Antonio NWS AFD because they were also concerned about winter precip in that forecasting region next week. There's just too many snow (and tornado) fans on this wx site. They're currently going around 20 F for lows Monday night (WC in single digits which'd be fun), around San Antonio. Either way, it'll definitely be chilly in all of the state for sure next week. NAM of course, will spill the beans when it gets close. But they're talking now that the intruding cold could stay for an extended period. I don't think we'll have an intensity repeat of TX February 2021 as the more intense ones are often associated with LN winters. But below freezing temps even just in the mid-lower 20s down here in STX for about 10 hours straight would be a pain in the butt for the pipes. With those temps, lots of peoples main lines busted around Corpus during the Feb 2021 freeze causing the water pressure to drop for everyone in the city. It normally never gets that cold this far south in the state (to note on here). Especially near coast.

Spotter confirmed about 2.50 in. diameter hail not too far east of San Antonio, near Belmont, TX: ----------- Also, Hurricane force Non-thunderstorm wind gust reported around Brownsville in Deep South TX at the airport:

2 in. diameter hail reported a short while ago near coast in/around Lake Charles, LA @ NWS office:

Been quite windy down here on the coast all night with BRO & CRP VWP showing 60 kts southerly/WAA flow in the first few thousand feet above the surface (around 925Mb) the past several hours. But 70 kts around Dallas/FWS at 850Mb on 12Z observed sounding this morning (might've peaked 75 kt in that layer on VWP for a short time around daybreak a little while ago). ---------- Global multi-model output showing significant area of maxed out thunder probabilities just north/east of Houston this afternoon: This region is also generally being supported on CAMs as well. Parameters also looking pretty good in this region for severe wind/hail potential as well. Fairly low FZL, generally steep mid-level LRs, and generally 70 kts DL shear by later afternoon on CAMs & globals. Even about 80 kt 500Mb winds by then also, and 50 - 60 kt at 700Mb. A little surface heating may also be in play closer to Houston area given time of day as well ahead of the cold front later this afternoon. Interestingly also behind surface cold front, Euro has been insistent the past couple days on developing some post-frontal convection (likely very elevated due to rapidly drying low-levels) during this evening from the mid-coast northeast toward ETX with a swath of high 700Mb RH on GFS also, slicing rapidly east/southeast to the coast.

Supercell & strongest storm over entire TX coast early this morning (not too far south of Houston) that was RI tornado warned just before 6 am. Definitely had some hail. Euro & ICON did a much better job forecasting storms happening onshore than GFS & Canadian. Though probably wasn't actually sfc-based, apparently also had a decent couplet to it on BV near Brazoria/Lake Jackson. No LSR (so far today). ----- *** LSR of confirmed tornado near Brazoria TX from the early Friday supercell in that area:

Had a nice little thunder cluster actually get going right near me before moving NNE just off the coast about 1 hour ago. Lightning was also a little frequent and saw 2 nice simultaneous mid-size CGs close by. Though, virtually all the strikes around were quite weak ( < 100kA) and negatives on lightning data analysis. But am seeing stronger cells and discharges starting to get going up the coast toward Houston with a much better veering flow pattern aloft up there on VWP.

Some fairly heavy cells developing near TX coast early this morning, but not much lightning (so far) with meager tops on ET radar. 0Z CRP sounding tonight showed much less CAPE (but still fairly steep mid-level LRs) compared to Tuesday evening's system (that went much further south than where tonight's is in the panhandle per usual). But low-level flow largely staying southerly so far on VWP (instead of typical westerly veering) and seeing more concentration of cells right now ahead of next dry line/cold front just off to the west/southwest. The incoming trough aloft out west would seem to be more neutrally-tilted this time looking at precip line orientation all the way up to Dallas. Subtropical jet nosing north now into deep STX on satellite also.

Seeing data the past decades over TX since the 80s - recent, the coldest days have more commonly been in later Jan - early Feb. By later Feb, it usually starts warming down here in the state (some years quite rapidly by then especially in the southern half).

The northern hemisphere warming trend climatologically starts near or by the end of February. Keyword: start

Unless you're meaning DUN users which is Very rare now, 99% of people in the US (where this place is for) have a broadband high-speed internet connection that has no data cap. Even most smartphones now only use 4G LTE or 5G cell data technology with a typically sizable data allowance (in gigabytes) every month to accommodate those high data speeds. 4G LTE alone is also quite fast. For me, the problem here is that non-subscribers only have 1.95 megabytes of attachment space per-post. Which is nothing on the internet nowadays. But that's especially a pain in the butt for even BASIC wx data gif animations.

I actually thought many on here would've already been aware of that long standing climatological fact (concerning the northern hemisphere) when it comes to later Jan - early Feb every year.

Digital snow lol that's definitely a new slang wx term for me

- MUCH more southerly Low track (now near San Antonio), than what all the models predicted.. Still hasn't made that northeast ejection that should've happened toward NTX/OK..

Near-sfc CAPE 1000, 7+ LRs, and 60+ kt effective shear over TX coastal bend this evening.. Fairly low FZL (for standards down here) also.

- Seeing the evidence right now in EN/MJO influence as this incoming Low today is taking a MUCH further southward track and still tracking eastward entering the state near Midland (unlike ones ejecting further northeast through the panhandle and into plains during December), southeast of NM border.

Elevated thunder potential looking fairly decent today from San Antonio (maybe as far north as Dallas), and east with fairly steep mid-level LRs again (already evident on 0Z observed soundings tonight). Though, both GFS/Euro showing 60 F DPs creeping onto coastal bend later today before next cold frontal passage tonight with limited surface CAPE right onshore in tonight's ARWs & HRRR runs. Unlike last system just before Christmas (even though there were some storms in the state & hail around Amarillo on 23rd), this one has much better DL shear over TX coastal region. Especially with a 150 kt UL jet max overhead. Might not be any severe onshore. Especially if marine warm front/surface Low tracks further offshore, but could be close call for mid TX coast as CAMs tonight showing formidable amount of MUCAPE getting closer to 1000. Which could be a sign of a more potent incoming mid-upper level Low. Especially seeing it right now on WV out there around Arizona border (deeper dry air wrapping on backside).

Looks like things (EN and apparently MJO also really going into play now) are going to get very interesting convective-wise for most of Gulf Coast region late this week and/or early next week. SPC already discussing the next two (robust forecasted) mid-upper lows/troughs of interest in their Day 4 - 8 outlook New Years Monday. Globals also were showing Cold mid-level temps (500Mb near -30 C & 700Mb near -10 C) widely around the lows with widespread ample DL shear (50 - 60 kts generally but some areas near 100 kts) ahead of the second Low, with Monday's (8th) generally tracking further south through TX than the first one this Friday (5th). Will definitely be interesting to see how things evolve with these next 2 highlighted incoming Lows this week.