Stx_Thunder

Was reading that Euro is trending drier in this morning's Austin/San Antonio NWS AFD because they were also concerned about winter precip in that forecasting region next week. There's just too many snow (and tornado) fans on this wx site. They're currently going around 20 F for lows Monday night (WC in single digits which'd be fun), around San Antonio. Either way, it'll definitely be chilly in all of the state for sure next week. NAM of course, will spill the beans when it gets close. But they're talking now that the intruding cold could stay for an extended period. I don't think we'll have an intensity repeat of TX February 2021 as the more intense ones are often associated with LN winters. But below freezing temps even just in the mid-lower 20s down here in STX for about 10 hours straight would be a pain in the butt for the pipes. With those temps, lots of peoples main lines busted around Corpus during the Feb 2021 freeze causing the water pressure to drop for everyone in the city. It normally never gets that cold this far south in the state (to note on here). Especially near coast.

Spotter confirmed about 2.50 in. diameter hail not too far east of San Antonio, near Belmont, TX: ----------- Also, Hurricane force Non-thunderstorm wind gust reported around Brownsville in Deep South TX at the airport:

2 in. diameter hail reported a short while ago near coast in/around Lake Charles, LA @ NWS office:

Been quite windy down here on the coast all night with BRO & CRP VWP showing 60 kts southerly/WAA flow in the first few thousand feet above the surface (around 925Mb) the past several hours. But 70 kts around Dallas/FWS at 850Mb on 12Z observed sounding this morning (might've peaked 75 kt in that layer on VWP for a short time around daybreak a little while ago). ---------- Global multi-model output showing significant area of maxed out thunder probabilities just north/east of Houston this afternoon: This region is also generally being supported on CAMs as well. Parameters also looking pretty good in this region for severe wind/hail potential as well. Fairly low FZL, generally steep mid-level LRs, and generally 70 kts DL shear by later afternoon on CAMs & globals. Even about 80 kt 500Mb winds by then also, and 50 - 60 kt at 700Mb. A little surface heating may also be in play closer to Houston area given time of day as well ahead of the cold front later this afternoon. Interestingly also behind surface cold front, Euro has been insistent the past couple days on developing some post-frontal convection (likely very elevated due to rapidly drying low-levels) during this evening from the mid-coast northeast toward ETX with a swath of high 700Mb RH on GFS also, slicing rapidly east/southeast to the coast.

Supercell & strongest storm over entire TX coast early this morning (not too far south of Houston) that was RI tornado warned just before 6 am. Definitely had some hail. Euro & ICON did a much better job forecasting storms happening onshore than GFS & Canadian. Though probably wasn't actually sfc-based, apparently also had a decent couplet to it on BV near Brazoria/Lake Jackson. No LSR (so far today). ----- *** LSR of confirmed tornado near Brazoria TX from the early Friday supercell in that area:

Had a nice little thunder cluster actually get going right near me before moving NNE just off the coast about 1 hour ago. Lightning was also a little frequent and saw 2 nice simultaneous mid-size CGs close by. Though, virtually all the strikes around were quite weak ( < 100kA) and negatives on lightning data analysis. But am seeing stronger cells and discharges starting to get going up the coast toward Houston with a much better veering flow pattern aloft up there on VWP.

Some fairly heavy cells developing near TX coast early this morning, but not much lightning (so far) with meager tops on ET radar. 0Z CRP sounding tonight showed much less CAPE (but still fairly steep mid-level LRs) compared to Tuesday evening's system (that went much further south than where tonight's is in the panhandle per usual). But low-level flow largely staying southerly so far on VWP (instead of typical westerly veering) and seeing more concentration of cells right now ahead of next dry line/cold front just off to the west/southwest. The incoming trough aloft out west would seem to be more neutrally-tilted this time looking at precip line orientation all the way up to Dallas. Subtropical jet nosing north now into deep STX on satellite also.

Seeing data the past decades over TX since the 80s - recent, the coldest days have more commonly been in later Jan - early Feb. By later Feb, it usually starts warming down here in the state (some years quite rapidly by then especially in the southern half).

The northern hemisphere warming trend climatologically starts near or by the end of February. Keyword: start

Unless you're meaning DUN users which is Very rare now, 99% of people in the US (where this place is for) have a broadband high-speed internet connection that has no data cap. Even most smartphones now only use 4G LTE or 5G cell data technology with a typically sizable data allowance (in gigabytes) every month to accommodate those high data speeds. 4G LTE alone is also quite fast. For me, the problem here is that non-subscribers only have 1.95 megabytes of attachment space per-post. Which is nothing on the internet nowadays. But that's especially a pain in the butt for even BASIC wx data gif animations.

I actually thought many on here would've already been aware of that long standing climatological fact (concerning the northern hemisphere) when it comes to later Jan - early Feb every year.

Digital snow lol that's definitely a new slang wx term for me

- MUCH more southerly Low track (now near San Antonio), than what all the models predicted.. Still hasn't made that northeast ejection that should've happened toward NTX/OK..

Near-sfc CAPE 1000, 7+ LRs, and 60+ kt effective shear over TX coastal bend this evening.. Fairly low FZL (for standards down here) also.

- Seeing the evidence right now in EN/MJO influence as this incoming Low today is taking a MUCH further southward track and still tracking eastward entering the state near Midland (unlike ones ejecting further northeast through the panhandle and into plains during December), southeast of NM border.

Elevated thunder potential looking fairly decent today from San Antonio (maybe as far north as Dallas), and east with fairly steep mid-level LRs again (already evident on 0Z observed soundings tonight). Though, both GFS/Euro showing 60 F DPs creeping onto coastal bend later today before next cold frontal passage tonight with limited surface CAPE right onshore in tonight's ARWs & HRRR runs. Unlike last system just before Christmas (even though there were some storms in the state & hail around Amarillo on 23rd), this one has much better DL shear over TX coastal region. Especially with a 150 kt UL jet max overhead. Might not be any severe onshore. Especially if marine warm front/surface Low tracks further offshore, but could be close call for mid TX coast as CAMs tonight showing formidable amount of MUCAPE getting closer to 1000. Which could be a sign of a more potent incoming mid-upper level Low. Especially seeing it right now on WV out there around Arizona border (deeper dry air wrapping on backside).

Looks like things (EN and apparently MJO also really going into play now) are going to get very interesting convective-wise for most of Gulf Coast region late this week and/or early next week. SPC already discussing the next two (robust forecasted) mid-upper lows/troughs of interest in their Day 4 - 8 outlook New Years Monday. Globals also were showing Cold mid-level temps (500Mb near -30 C & 700Mb near -10 C) widely around the lows with widespread ample DL shear (50 - 60 kts generally but some areas near 100 kts) ahead of the second Low, with Monday's (8th) generally tracking further south through TX than the first one this Friday (5th). Will definitely be interesting to see how things evolve with these next 2 highlighted incoming Lows this week.

Thunder threat looking pretty good for most of coastal and eastern half TX this weekend. Especially with elevated mid-level LRs already in the 6 - 7 range in place here on coast in tonight's 0Z soundings and Euro/ICON consistently forecasting all week around 7 over the state. Any severe still questionable if incoming trough is lower amplitude (DL shear by no means impressive at least for coastal region on globals), but at least a double round of storms basically guarantee now in both globals & CAMs in tonight's runs, Saturday - early Sunday.

As usual even with an almost fully due W capping/drying flow already established in the boundary layer ahead of a cold front, a number of storms still get going around Houston. It never fails in SETX even in winter. Some pretty strong ones (and even a few severe warned ones in the past 2 hours) too with hail reported as VILs are reaching past 50 at times on radar even further southwest:

Evidently looks like a pretty potent incoming shortwave into TX tomorrow. Even with very limited MUCAPE (although elevated mid-level LRs near 7) this evening, already got occasional CG lightning discharges going on at times in the activity/impulse moving NE through the Brownsville/lower TX coast area. Thought I heard one rumble up here too about an hour ago.

Just to be clear, I was meaning convective or thunder patterns in general in that post I wrote. As they tend to be more erratic around TX during EN fall - spring seasons because of more persistent jet stream influence (than what's typically observed during LN ones). So it's not always clear how convective patterns will actually happen or evolve. Especially during the spring. I'm very, Very well aware of the cap/EML and its effects on deep convection all around down here in Southern TX. As this region is basically 'CIN City', compared to the rest of the state (including but especially HOU region) to the point that the only real "guarantee months" for any kind of thunder day in STX is around May/June and September/October. Even without capping issues or severe, there's often another parameter for thunderstorms that's off such as limited moisture aloft, timing issues with incoming lift/dynamics, etc. Frontal scenarios (unless it's anafrontal but even that isn't much better scenario), are typically the worse down here for storms because of the veering SW boundary layer flow (like you mentioned). Which caps & dries the column out down here the most, first (before anywhere else north in the state). There's also been a few years during the past 2 decades where I've seen CINH values on SPC soundings in Brownsville/BRO having been close to 1,000 in March. Overall, storms are trickiest to come by down here because most of the dynamics from shortwaves moving into or through the state from the west typically bypass the region to the north/east. It's literally almost always like that every year. Also, most of the deep convective or MCS scenarios through the Fall & Spring seasons are outflow-driven from initiated storms upstream like around CTX region. That tends to mitigate severe risk down here as well (more often than not). So with all that in mind and from what I've seen up the TX coast on data over the past 2 decades, thunderstorms and severe ones overall have A Lot less trouble going on up there around Houston/SETX compared to down here (and even most of the state). You can clearly see that huge difference in the color area legends on the observed annual mean thunderstorm day climatology map on NOAA over the past 3 decades below: - Reference: https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/thunderstorms NAM always does best (temp & timing wise) with those colder, shallow frontal air masses coming out of Canada. It's been like that for years now. And that pretty dense one at the end of last October was no exception for NAM's performance. TX NWS forecasters (especially at the Austin/San Antonio region office) always mention NAM's output in their AFD when those shallow fronts dive south into the state because they already know about that as well.

Looks like one of those very shear-dependent setups (rather than thermodynamic). Which is pretty typical this time of year. Especially with all these cold frontal intrusions of late all the way into the western/southern Gulf. I read in the earlier day 2 SPC discussion from today that they were thinking of downgrading the risk (I can see the valid reasoning why in their discussion details especially about the forecast rapid warming profile aloft from 850mb - 500mb layer). Though it's a bit surprising they even mentioned a possible downgrade especially for those typical areas of concern (Houston and eastward), only being around the Gulf coast during the cold season. 0Z Brownsville or BRO sounding this evening showing that there's already about 200 MUCAPE around 700mb, and 1.8 PW (versus 1.3 on this morning's 12Z) down there. So they're right that it's a pretty rapid airmass modification pattern ongoing today in the WAA regime with 40 kt veering southerly LLJ here on the western side of the Gulf ahead of that next shortwave out west.

Looks like Winter is coming to TX for next week and Halloween. Since it's a shallow airmass diving south out of Canada, will be interesting to see just how cold NAM goes on temps in the state on new runs at the end of this week.

Really enjoying this persistent cloudy and much cooler (than it's been in literally months now on both) weather since Friday. Though not very much less humid. Definitely a huge break on the A/C. Shortwaves been moving through the region in the southern stream flow with intermittent echos on radar the past 2 days but most of it even out west and south around Laredo and Brownsville regions seem to be mostly virga too given the drier lower levels from last weeks fronts. But this new week when the drying effects wane... As things stand now, really don't need anymore rainfall, 'least around here on the coastal bend. Looks like some pacific tropical system moisture influence also from both 16-E and Lidia. But the heaviest rainfall could end up further south. Though PWs forecast to jump from under 1.5" now, to around 2.5" by Tuesday. Which is quite high for October standards. Even down here.

Rain lasted pretty much all day down here. Thunder ended by around mid-afternoon. Though lots of nice photo-worthy cloudy sky scenes to look at before it got dark. Still lots of moisture in place aloft with 2" PW still hanging on but lower level flow on 0Z sounding starting to veer all northward now. Looking to welcome fall with open arms behind tomorrow's first real cold front for the state this season. That's generally how it always goes down here around TX in El Niño with wetter/cooler fall - spring seasons overall. I've already seen close to 10" here on the coast. Just within the last 3 weeks since that subtropical furnace high finally went away, as the grass is really starting to grow fast now between cuts. And we've only entered fall. A pretty active winter even convective wise being right next to the gulf wouldn't be out of question and especially next spring in '24 (with obviously higher severe probabilities). Spring 2023 was pretty convectively active all things considered in the state when the ENSO transition was going on. It tends to follow a trend into the next year. But even more so around the middle of the decade as I've seen in the past 2. I can only imagine what spring 2024 & 25 might bring this far out.