Bob Chill

Everything was great until the euro stole all the snow before it even started. The other models are so mad they are protesting by showing nice events. But nobody's listening to them so they'll prob take it away at 0z. Dont blame them really

True on paper but the only thing you need is to find a cert doc who thinks hangnails require cannabis medication. There are plenty. Trust me when I say they only want your money For the record, I have 3 degenerated lumbar discs impinging on my sciatic nerve and an arachnoid cyst (inoperable) in my spinal column. Thankfully it only flares randomly and not chronic. I'm a master at managing it but wouldnt wish it on anyone. I've had mris, physical therapy ,pain medication (f that ish), muscle relaxers, and anything else my docs think will work over the last 12 years or so. Certain cannabis products and a good TENS machine provide better relief than all of it. I'm legit but few are. Not that I care. Never should have been illegal in the first place.

There are absolutely few if any hoops to jump through. MD just wants your app fee and the docs want their cert fee. The only barrier to entry is about $250. Well... at least that's what I was told by some hypothetical friends.

yea, well... welcome to the midatlantic that's not running as cold as it used to. If snow droughts negatively affect your life or emotions, you can either do something about it or just get waterboarded. One or the other.

The unfortunate part about the transition to the mid range to the short range is people's nerves are already fried. They've seen a million looks and reacted differently to all of them. Just because we're in the short range now doesn't mean it's all figured out. It's never all figured out like that. I like what wxusaf said and practice the same. Grab the set of models that you feel have the best handle (sometimes it's all of them) and then just blend them. Adjust what you know may be likely incorrect or just less likely to happen. If 4 models are all south and 1 model is jacking your yard, don't expect to get jacked. If the entire suite is shotgunned within a defined range (like right now), SOMEONE is prob getting jacked nearby. Might be you, might be someone else but you're in the game. I never understood why people simply latch onto the absolute most cherry picked set of runs/models and then lose it every time something shows something worse. Mid to short range ALWAYS has a series of overdone solutions. You can set your watch to it. I treat that set as max potential not a bar but that's just me. ETA: one more thing... this whole setup is NOT a prolific QPF producer nor a super heavy snow dumper. 1.2" of qpf as snow is A LOT OF QPF. Usually reserved for a sub 1000mb low off the coast situation. That's not what's going on here. We're benefitting from a 1-2 punch but a big shellacking storm this is not. Never once thought it was and definitely not expecting double digit snowfall. It's possible but not widespread imo unless it hits on all cylinders. Which happens like once every 5 years.

I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time.

I don't even need to look in the storm thread do I? lol. The irony of participating on the regular sharing a "love" for the same wx but when that wx hits, everyone hates it. And this is an optional hobby with no paycheck. People are plain strange man.

I was just talking in general. I didn't look at the UKIE. The follow up wave with slp scooting out to sea south of us could be more interesting in that regard. Kinda light qpf on the models but I'd guess verbatim it would be a pretty/fluffy snowfall. Time will tell.

This may not be true. It's not an optimal snow growth setup. No crazy frontogen, uppler level dynamics or big lifting mechanism other than isentropic upglide. Will still be pretty snow if the rates are good. I'm not sold on sweet snowgrowth. Think of this as the warm air advection part of a coastal. Not usually a 12/15/20:1 type of snowfall. But it's really cold upstairs so I could be wrong. Someone else or a met can add to or correct my thoughts.

I'm trying to keep my glacier fetish at bay but it's not working... I stinking love complete coverage with a 1" lid of ice/crust on top. Takes forever to melt out and keeps grass covered till the bitter end.

This isn't a clipper/pure NS shortwave. Even with QPF spread out, I'd be willing to bet in real time that it's pulses of moderate snow and not a pixiefest. Moisture source is the Pac down by Baja and the gulf. May not be great ratios depending on a lot of things but I really doubt it's a drawn out flurry event.

at least the answer shows up on search results without clicking. Don't want to leave a jpg "artifact" on the hard drive tho. heh.

H20RR is straight fire today.

Let's not leave out all the Coney Island Whitefish swimming around the docks. Not sure what species that is? Try google and don't blame me for anything. Your keyboard, your decisions.

This is actually a really good PG13 way of putting it. I was thinking dock curds... or worse... I'll show myself the door again.

You need to host a zoom mental heath meeting in here STAT

The pooled up slime around the dock inlets is def the sweat

There's a few areas in the city that work as the unwashed taint

You need to put a couple circles at the base of the friend zone. You know, the friend zone's 2 best friends. I'll show myself the door now

I hate rug pulls too. I get that as much as anyone. But sometimes I see irrational exuberance given the setup. The hybrid had me scared of my shadow start to finish. We maximize those like 5% of the time, get screwed 75% of the time, and 20% of the time we get ok snow. We got ok snow but it felt like the 75%. It's a REALLY TALL ORDER for the thurs/fri deal to drop over 1" liquid over a large swath. We have organized coastals with less. Those mid/short range mega runs always seem to be the kiss of death for having fun. Anything less becomes a disaster sticking point. Is what it is. I get it. I'm here for the lolz nowadays. Models backing down at short range has an inverse relationship with the # of lolz tho

No time to play yet. Just wondering if we've reached the point of the storm being impossible to enjoy no matter what happens? If not now, later today for sure

You kiddin? Slant stickers in this joint scoff at a measly 65:1

I thought it was perfectly clear. Weekly miller A's of increasing intensity until the Mar 93 redux triple phaser.

Gfs had alot of suspicious looks starting Sunday The polar eyeball rules the roost thru the period. No model is going to figure out how it wobbles around more than 3-4 days out and even then.... Looks like it needs visine too.

This is starting to smell like a 6-10 event region wide Agree. If everything lines up for a good hit with the 12z runs tomorrow I'd say it's a lock. Uncomplicated right? I want to maximize the first slug. I have some vague memories of a modeled 1-2 shot and the first one fizzled and the second didnt work as well as thought.