Bob Chill

We have an insurance policy for now at least. The WAA piece looks like a flush hit here. Models have nice 850 and 700mb frontogen all over SWVA. That's easy snow and at this point seems very likely we're getting a piece of that. North of us doesn't benefit the same. Areas north need some phasing and rapid deepening of the low. That's more complicated and harder on the nerves. We're pretty locked for 3-6" min I think.

Yea, it's a very predictable paradox and why I don't engage like I used to. Misery may in fact like company but I have no interest in miserable company

I figured I'd be waiting a number of years for a major storm after I moved south... let's do this. Idga single F what happens north of our yards. All ingredients are in place for a cold start and finish major storm.... I'm starting to feel this one but ready for the nard punch lol

Jan 29/30 is the exact analog date showing. I need to dig into the rest. I don't remember much memorable stuff on the list. Just avg storms or the wet not white storms. D3 is the best range for CIPS ime. Hopefully bigger dogs start showing once we get to mon AM

One of the most common top 5 CIPS analogs I'm seeing last few days is late Jan 2010. CIPS is run off the gfs so not exactly a broad data set getting fed. Once we get to d3 it's a great tool for setting high/low bars based on history. I do think the Jan 2010 analog is a really good one. That was an awesome cold storm even if a surprise

Verbatim the narrow stripe is "scary" but given the upper level setup and the history of our area, it's still a widespread storm and the cmc just burped a little. I can't think of any setups like this (with a turn instead of exit) that didn't cover the area pretty evenly except for the impossible to predict jack stripe. Basically take the cmc jack and smooth it out westward 75 miles and it looks more typical (imo only)

If the cmc is the worst outcome I'm still hearing tents getting pitched.

I'm most certainly not mad at the gfs lol. A 10" wall of heavy WAA followed by ULL fluff. There is no such thing as an easy foot of snow where I live but the gfs cave got me... I'm all in lol

Outside of the few main ateries around here, they really don't plow lol. The cold 4" storm was mostly left to clear itself. Lots of trucks so people just drive through whatever and go. Once a track is packed, cars quickly follow lol. I could do without a 12" storm because it's so disruptive and I'm behind schedule with our project already due to a cold winter. But.... I'm so curious how bad it might be that I'm doom rooting lol. We had a lot of trees come down on the roads this year with the 2 ice events. Unless they hit power lines, local residents are pretty much responsible for getting them out of the way. I always have a chainsaw in the bed of my truck and have stopped multiple times to clean up public roads. So many people do it that roads are rarely blocked for more than a blink. I really enjoy living in an area where nearly everyone is resourceful and has tools to take care of problems on the spot. Having limited public services almost seems beneficial to qualify of life. Everyone does their part quickly without a second thought. Starkly different than my Rockville years lol

Looks like the last 2 runs of the euro is the perfect setup to steal a sizeable chunk of happiness right out of a nice snowstorm come gametime

Some decent analogs showing up d11+. Late feb/early Mar 1994 being a notable one. Early March 05 as well. As for next week, looks the same to me last few days in general. Cold progressive wave with probably the largest stripe of snow of the year in our general area. I think the SE whiff worries are overblown unless I'm misinterpretation something. Are people fretting the jack or the chance of accum snow in general? If your focused on accum snow, looks pretty easy. If you are sweating the jack, you will prob be unhappy while its actually snowing lol

That's the lid I think. It's a tall order to get h5 to close a second low south of the vortex so the setup doesnt support a 1-2 punch storm. Without a vigorous upper low, you can't really get a long duration or moisture bomb. A warning level progressive shortwave is probably best case unless things shift around. Another thing holding back max potential is lack of organization near the MS# River. It's diffuse and flat until approach. One way a progressive wave can produce big is a big moisture fetch/organized low in place in advance. Not the case here. I do feel like there is a very good chance at a warning level snow but anyone married to the widespread 12+" fantasy op runs is either already named Ji or their bubble will burst

This winter is right out of the 80s playbook for a "normal and acceptable" winter imo. It's like a mishmash of all non nino 80s winters that didn't torch. Even late 70s flavor during Jan. I'm already expecting the pdo to help or at least not hurt us next year. Odds of a neutral or favorable mean AO/NAO next year are above normal too if I'm thinking right.

I misspoke. I meant Feb 14. It was the only typical/classic style storm of both winters. We got a lot of weird snow setups that maximized. It was so easy back then lol but that's now how it works here so we paid a lot back since. Feels like we're on the front side of better winters for a while. This year reminds me a lot of the decent 80s winters. Last year was the one that could have been but sure AF wasn't haha

I was thinking the same but iirc that storm did a classic h5 close off in the deep south. It was a 1-2 punch because the closed ULL kinda dawdled. Dry slot lull was aggravating. CMC had the setup for a close off. Gfs and euro for most part setups would require a tpv phase for a bomb. That comes with excessive risk of a bust but would be fun AF for someone

It's a weird setup. Kinda similar to some of the Feb/Mar stuff of 2014 and 2015. Volatile tpv windshield wiper stuff. This run was better with trajectory and ridging but only because the tpv was better positioned AND the timing of the sweep underneath. Subtle shifts in either direction change the outcome drastically. Climo and experience says it won't be strung out like that. It will either be one sig wave or 2 separated ones. I can't count the # of drawn out mid/lr threats that ended up compact in reality. Maybe this time will buck that. Baroclinc zone and UL energy is kinda powderkeggy. I'm very interested. First setup all year that may let a bunch of us win. Even in the SE and NE subs. It used to happen I swear lol

This place gets too neurotic for me during the second half of winter. What's wrong with just accepting that multiple solutions are on the table an it would be a fools errand to marry any one of them? I actually hate seeing ops toss out a little group of good storms at 10+ day leads. Then whichever one shows the highest total immediately becomes the minimum bar. And when it actually does pan out... a 10 day lead op signal goes the distance... and it's 4-6" instead of fantasy 10-12", it's a failure and the mood of the board is so-so at best (or downright bitter at worst lol). It's getting old to put it lightly lol I think people are overthinking the NYC snowhole. Imo- it's just reversion. Why's aren't permanent. They're just required to "even things out". NYC prob broke every snowfall record during their decade heater run. That's not entirely free and you gotta pay some of it back. They'll go on another heater soon enough. I was totally unsurprised when the roidal -PDO suddenly broke down this year. It was time and repetitive storms (for weeks) took care of it like nothing lol. I think we make parts of this hobby way too complex. The more I simplify how I look at what's important (to me), the better my batting avg with my guesses. Less is more I think

I was out west from 92-99 so I didn't experience any of the 90s storms. Based on your maps and my maturity level back then, that storm would have made me mad lol

Hmmm... back to all snow... didn't see that coming. Column isnt as cooked as i thought. Maybe the heavy rates in a few hours are sleet and not zr. Or maybe all snow and I get a foot... that would be bad actually... Ji would want to move here

100% sleet now. Metal roof is clinkin and pingin. Plenty of precip on the way if the column can hold. Not cold enough for zr. 31-32 around the area. Accretion won't come easy

PSU just said triple phase is a lock. Which makes sense because the triple phase WDI is at ATHs

2.5" with 20 mins of sleet on top and a lull since 10am. Next round coming soon but snow is done for me most likely. Time to root for heavy sleet to hit my 3" guess.

Quite the paradox this place is. It exists because of snow enthusiasts but the vast majority of them are the least happy when it's about to snow or it's actually snowing. Lol. And the avg age is prob upper 30s low 40s.

Yea, AO is bonkers this time and will most likely produce. Agree 100%. Front side of big drops don't produce very often though. If I had my PC set up I could dig thru the data but iirc, it's at least 3 to 1 with 6+" events hitting on the eventual rise. Not KU flip stuff. Just on the relax in general. KU flip discussion will prob start up in 7 days or so lolol 87 is on the list as are a few others but unless I missed something, it's been fleeting and not top 5. When I mention analogs it usually means they've been hitting top 5 for at least several days. If 87 was up there I didn't catch it. I know SNE has been eying the 77 and 78 analogs lol. I like seeing them. They just weren't configured right for us overall but man they could have been big.

All models missed the precipitous AO drop at D10+. That thing just tank without saying sorry. It's the reason it's snowing today and why a legit stretch of possible warmth went poof. I think models have the general idea right for the 20th. Meaning a decent precip maker covering a good chunk of real estate is heading our way from the SW. It wouldn't take much for it to become an "easy lol" storm. From long range, imo only, a South whiff seems the least likely to me with this setup. All rain doesn't seem very likely either and a cohesive storm needs more than a little help but ingredients are there for it. We'll have a much better idea once all our snow washes away and the sun comes out again