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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    Just hug the icon and nams until something better comes along. We're in chips fall mode anyway. Jackpot tbd means not known until the event is over. These progressions are twisty turney. No model will nail exact placement of best banding/dynamics.
  2. Bob Chill
    Virga streaming in. If you use the cod nexrad site, once the hole over klwx fills in it means onset it imminent for the burbs. Western folks will already be reporting by then. There's going to be hours and hours of virga through late afternoon
  3. Bob Chill
    Now we're talkin
  4. Bob Chill
    I'm too busy huggin the icon to worry about the gfs
  5. Bob Chill
    Icon goes nuts with the weenie ccb band. Lol. Big hit incoming
  6. Bob Chill
    I'm always very skeptical of nam qpf output. Temps are usually pretty good but i've seen more than my share of qpf busts. That said, i'm hugging the 12k until it implodes
  7. Bob Chill
    I fell asleep before the 0z euro and woke up to a model frenzy. I would have been depressed if i saw the 0z euro. Lol
  8. Bob Chill
    3k mostly agrees with its mentally unstable brother
  9. Bob Chill
    Damn. Even .75 is a crushing. Good 6z and 12z so far
  10. Bob Chill
    Even if you us the standard short range nam reality adjustment it's still .60
  11. Bob Chill
    Thanks coastal but i think you meant to say melts on contact. Lol
  12. Bob Chill
    Normally i totally ignore the srefs but 21z is hugworthy so I'm in.
  13. Bob Chill
    This year is crazy. Almost every southern shortwave has overperformed midrange guidance.
  14. Bob Chill
    Read some obs in the midwest thread. Looks like a positive reverse bust in progress in MO and IL. Extrapolate that at your leisure
  15. Bob Chill
    Good question... it doesnt matter either way. Obs at this point are only temp, dews, and how cloudy your clouds are.
  16. Bob Chill
    Soundings at 18z look pretty good. Before onset the column is saturated down to 925mb. Surface winds are out of the south turning se then e. Def going to be hallucinations but one of the nice things about waa precip like this is moisture in the mids is steady streaming in well before onset. Clippers are the worst with "wasting snow"
  17. Bob Chill
    Alright folks. Locked and loaded with few if any worries. Hope the southern folks get more snow than ice. Ground is frozen and ready to get dumped on. Streets in the western zones will cave with the first flakes. *measure honestly. No slant sticks or "eyeballing a foot".
  18. Bob Chill
    And to think... there was a heated drought debate last winter.
  19. Bob Chill
    I feel sorry for the dought
  20. Bob Chill
    Absolutely. What makes this July stand out it was it was really wet and still came in about +1-2 around the airports. If it was dry then it could have been much worse. Easy top 5 imho. The 6-7 days of the month averaged well below normal. Mostly because of the summer coastal. EJ is disappointed because of wasted potential.
  21. Bob Chill
    Nice stats Rodney! The precip in July is probably the only reason we didn't end up in the top 10 for heat. August is looking unimpressive so far in the heat dept. Would be nice to have a BN month.
  22. Bob Chill
    One thing is for sure, that 7 day period in Feb 10 may not be topped for 100 years or ever. If the poll was "greatest 7 days of winter" there only needs to be 1 choice.
  23. Bob Chill
    One of my main reasons for picking 1/16 is because I have a much deeper knowledge of east coast snowstorms. The hunt was as rewarding as the prey. PD1 was the "first hit" in the lifetime addiction so it will forever be a defining event in my life. But tracking a beautiful storm for 8 days and knocking down 30" in my yard may never be topped before I'm dead. Or in 2 weeks...
  24. Bob Chill
    Me too. We've only had 2 bad out of the last 6. 10-11 wasn't above normal snow wise but it wasn't in the bad winter class either. We've had 4 giant and 2 really big storms in the last 6 years. Plus we're on a 3 year heater and froze the bay and rivers the previous 2 years. We probably have better than normal odds at adding another big or giant storm this year. Best of all...since this nino is so strong so late in the year we could have a sweet weak Nina next year to keep the run going...lol
  25. Bob Chill
    That h5 loop is a 10 second clinic of exactly what to look for if you like big snowstorms. I love the trajectory overhead and off the coast. So sweet for our latitude
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