BaltimoreWxGuy

A 992 tracking to our west. Definitely no Bueno

Eh. It looks like the euro is setting up for a Rainer to me 

Just now, nj2va said:

At least the Balto crew will be happy with the Euro.  Or since it gives more just south of the city, maybe not. 

I’m good with it here in Dundalk...I’m in the 2-3” band

2-3” on 10:1 map for most of us on euro 

GFS looks ok for about 1” for a lot of us. Nothing really near PA line though 

ICON favors DC for 1-3”. Not much for Baltimore-north

The positive snow depth map only showing 1” might be a red flag but hey if you had to make a forecast based off the NAMs you would certainly have to go 1-3” for most areas. 

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

See my eta:. Didn't realize you were comparing the 3k to the 12K and not to its previous run.

Yeah I guess I should have been more clear about that. Anyway, clearly the NAMs are nice little storms. Are they right? I guess we’ll see. I’m highly skeptical but hey, I guess it could happen 

Just now, showmethesnow said:

By hour 41 it looks like this might have been a premature call. 

It wasn’t premature at all...what I said was 100% accurate. Just turns out it doesn’t matter as it’s still able to amplify enough to get us a good band of precip 

Despite the differences early on, the 3K still looks good particularly DC-North

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It wasn’t. Compare hr 36 on 3K and 12K...now clearly it’s developed a nice burst at 41 so far but it was not as expansive in the Ohio valley 

It appears at least early on that the 3K isn’t as juicy or as far north with precip...isn’t the 3K considered superior to the 12k?

Yeah NAM isn’t backing down particularly for northern Md. 

I’d use extreme caution on the FV3 depiction for Sunday/Monday...I almost guarantee that’s how it won’t go down...no spacing at all between storms and rain to snow? Frontal passage basically. 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nope. Gfs has a wave on Sunday morning that isn’t there on other guidance. That wrecks the spacing and flattens the flow behind it. If that wave is real there is almost no hope for the Sunday night wave. But the gfs has been alone with that so far. 

It’s crazy how the models have been keying on different waves all winter. Whether it’s the complex pattern or not, the models have been kind of awful this winter. Is what it is 

Just not enough spacing between waves on gfs. Not looking great

One thing is for sure, whatever falls it’ll melt by noon lol

Gfs is a bit better particularly for dc but still nowhere near the NAM

9 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

NAM is almost 4-6" here, it's one of those storms that will only trend wetter as we get closer. I think NAM is closer than other models. 

Disagree...this is the type of system that the NAM over exaggerates on the northern extent of a jet streak when a low is way to the south. It’s out to lunch. I wouldn’t expect anyone to do better than a coating of snow with this. 

9 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Big dog(s) less likely; Percent of EPS members giving College Park > 1, 3, 6, and 12" during the next 8 1/2 days

Ouch. Rough hit. Not sure why anyone bought into the midweek farce. I could tell that looked sketchy. Gotta hedge our bets on Monday 

20 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Euro did the same thing with that weekend event that slid south into VA 2 weeks ago. It started the way with a nice hit, then completely abandoned ship. Weird to see the UK so much different in its depiction. 

Euro and GFS combo I usually find works well. They both agree on a relatively weak, sheared out system. Gotta go that route. Friday’s dead for now. Let’s pay attention to Monday 

Snow dog Holmes is on the case according to DT

46 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

lol you really can't think of areas that aren't your backyard can you

they had flood warnings i'm pretty sure in the south

Why would we care about flood warnings in the south? We’re talking about the modeled QPF in this forum. Real QPF was less than modeled. That’s the only point. Let’s move on now 

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

You know this threat isn’t looking good when half the posts are discussing the prior storm.  

Lol it’s a baby threat. The best we can hope for is 1-2” with marginal temps. I mean sure that’s something but this isn’t really too much of an event