BaltimoreWxGuy

15 minutes ago, Snowlvr said:

LWX has finally updated the max.  Point and click max is 7 for bel air so more increases are probably to come 

You posted the 10% chance of higher snowfall...where do you see a max of 7” for Bel Air?

Temp around 33-35 here near the bay east Baltimore. Maybe since the water is kind of cold it may help a little on this one 

11 minutes ago, snowfan said:

I sure hope some of you are not buying the NAM output. 6-10 isnt happening.

Nobody is buying the clown maps of the NAM. Clearly they don’t agree with the conditional precip type maps. I’ve been looking at positive snow depth change on the 12k and ferrier on the 3K for more accurate representations

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My boss loves snow but lives east of Baltimore by middle river right near the water. He is always complaining. Even when my school on the west side of Baltimore city gets 2-4” he often has virtually nothing.  Any marginal even he gets screwed. I keep telling him he lives in the snow anus of central MD. 

Truth. Outside of that one good event that we got 5-6” from, next to nothing around these parts from everything else. We know the warming around the bay plays a big role but can never seem to get the banding that Montgomery County to Carroll County gets either 

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah it is what it is. I'll root for the northern tier crew. Also hope the N Baltimore city folks cash in. They have missed out a lot too.

Don’t forget east Baltimore by the bay lol

Euro still looks pretty aggressive on the snowfall map. IF I get 5” from this I’d be estatic 

Using ferrier rime correction on 3K. Looks like 2-3” is accurate for Baltimore-PA...I’d take that. 

I’m thinking for this type of system, the positive snow depth change maps may be more accurate on accumulations than the 10:1 clown maps. That said, clearly the NAM is still a great run for Baltimore-north 

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

The UKMET had 10"?

Has for like 3-4,runs in a row now

So is the UKMET still sticking to my 10”?

17 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Well the Nam has a pretty solid round one and it's definitely not North

Yeah but the snow maps have to be ignored. The conditional precip maps are showing mostly sleet/ice. I guess that’s nice to see other than just rain but it doesn’t appear to have much snow on the run to me 

10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Rgem bullish for round 1 

Not a surprise since the Canadian has been 

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Remember models are not predictors of outcome nor even “most likely scenario”.They cover all the bases for a time frame and somewhere in representation over a 1-7 day period one of those projections will confirm and thus more funding to do it all over again.

if you want to be a model reader then fine but if you want to learn how to predict what will most likely happen then a different method must be employed.

I know but the models have been bad...did you read the discussion a couple days ago by the NWS how they were essentially completely unsure because models showed Tuesday temps ranging anywhere between upper 20s to 70 lol. That said it all 

2 minutes ago, AU74 said:

Weather forecasting predates models, IIRC.

Completely aware, but models play a huge role in forecasting. I’m not sure how anyone can make a confident forecast at this point. The models haven’t been good this year in my opinion. 

Just now, Chris78 said:

For what it's worth the fv3 does look better than it's 00z and 06z runs

 

I won’t forgive that model for showing and taking away my 22” of snow 

How do you forecast with these crappy models. 72 hours away they can’t somewhat agree. I don’t know what to make of any forecast for Sunday night/Monday. I think Late mon, Tues is fairly clear at least for northern MD with snow/maybe ice to rain though 

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t see it. Slightly more snow maybe but then warmer and a lot more rain so odds are worse ground truth when it’s over. 

Ok but why do we care so much about when it’s over? If I get 4” of snow before it goes to rain an washes away I’m fine with that as opposed to 2” and ice and dumb stuff dry slot. 

Well the Canadian gives us snow more so with wave 1 and 2-4”...Then all rain with Tuesday. Mess. Think we can discount it for most part, GFS has been too consistent with keying on Monday night/Tues and not Sun night/Mon

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I don't hate you.  I hate the Eeyore phase.  I think you infected Yoda this season.  He never used to be this bad. 

True but granted it’s been bad for MY back yard so sorry. I’m not even to 10” yet...about 9

Just now, stormtracker said:

Like the trends.  GFS is gonna skunk us after a front end thump..but the progression seems to get better with every run re: CAD

It’s a little faster which is nice. Sorry you hate me lol

Could be wrong but I’m kinda liking the GfS right now...better thump?

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. And not a ton of rain at that. This has thump, drizzle and dry slot written all over it. 

Idk 120 looks pretty rainy to me 

Not much ice on this run...snow to rain basically 

Looks like a better thump of snow possible 

Things looking fairly similar on 18z gfs so far compared to 12z