BaltimoreWxGuy

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

How good are the WRF models (ARW and NMM)?

The 0z runs all show a good hit for MD.

Maybe someone can correct if I’m wrong but I think they’re usually too amped and wet. 

The snow depth map is nearly identical to 6z idk, maybe it’s not as bad as the conditional shots suggest 

There must be a lot of sleet on the GFS around 1-4pm that the conditional maps aren’t picking up on because the clown maps are still crazy. 

The ICONs snowfall map is “true slr”...does anyone know what that involves in the calculation? 

ICON looks like a probably a good hit for northern MD...OK for DC but definitely focused from Baltimore N&W

That said, we’ve been upgraded to a winter storm warning...4-6” for Baltimore and .1 ice

6z NAM and 3K NAM not too good in terms of snow. Delayed start time by a little bit and a quicker flip. Really only ~3 hours of snow for most areas. Gotta hope the NAM is out to lunch on this one and the Canadian mesos along with GFS are more correct

Didn’t really see it mentioned but the Canadian is quite a bit better for DC-North. Especially northern MD

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Patiently awaiting the ICON map to come out on TT, clearly going to be impressive based on the sim maps. 

It and the FV3 have been VERY consistent for CMD.

It’s out. 8” Baltimore

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Finally able to catch up in here. Question—4” an hour rates!? Where is that possible? DC? MD? And if possible, are we starting to run into some thundersnow potential?

Looks like to me that the best chance of that would be west of DC...NOVA. Maybe Warrenton to Leesburg?

I have to think that the precipitation will be a little more smoothed out though. Odd that the heavy precipitation can’t make it a little more N.E. of DC...I doubt DC gets nearly 3-4 more inches of snow than BWI

1.75 precipitation by 00z from what I can tell in DC

GFS is really keying on DC and just to the west/southwest. Not as great to the northeast but ton of precip DC-west at 18z

Woah. GFS looks really good. A touch faster and precip is heavier 

Whether I get 2-4 or 3-6, I’m good with. I’ll at least see 3-4 hours of pretty mod to heavy snow. Haven’t had that all winter yet. I doubt I’ll get a lot of icing as by the bay doesn’t do well with that but perhaps some sleet accumulation I’ll take as well

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Yes please.

8” on the ground by 1pm

Icon looks like a mauling for Baltimore

Hmm 3K is stuck at hour 41 on Tidbits. Kind of curious what it shows at the end of its run

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Any word on the eps?

Yeah it was better than the OP. 3-6” area wide 

Just NW of cities never go to plain rain on NAM

Sleet bomb after a 3 hour heavy snow lol

Gonna get NAMed again. Juicy and already snow snowing up at hr 51 in extreme SW VA

Just now, Fozz said:

This has a good chance of being the biggest storm of the season for some of us.

I believe I got 5” with that one storm about a month ago or whenever it was. Not sure if I can beat that with this one or not. Kinda expecting 2-4” at this point but the good thing is that it may be hot and heavy for 4-6 hours unlike the 5” storm I got which was like 15 hours of light snow lol

I think 2-4” is a nice reasonable forecast for Baltimore and I’d be happy with that. We all know the Winchester to Westminster corridor is gonna be jackpotted with this 

3 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I guess I'm going to be the Debbie downer when it comes to this storm. I just hate the track way west like this. My expectations based on this setup with no extreme cold out ahead of it and that track is a quick burst of snow and ice late Tuesday night, accumulations similar to last week's event, then rain. Hopefully this storm does much better than that and you can all get after me. I just feel like that's what the pattern and setup favor. 

I wouldn’t be shocked if that happened but, the track of this one is a little better...didn’t that one pretty much go all the way up to Wisconsin?