BaltimoreWxGuy

12 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Not to be negative, it seems like there is potential here. But it also seems like most models are showing fail at this time for pretty much every chance we have. Of course it could trend better; but at this time it seems like a lot of hype over "lets hope it trends in the right direction".

Yep lot of ways to fail despite having “3” chances. I truly think Monday is our best chance. 

He’s saying we had less QPF than the models indicated...which I believe is generally true. 

Just now, LP08 said:

Weenie rule #38....Roll with the wettest of the GFS twins.  

Course lol. I just find the Euro and GFS to be a pretty good combo when they agree and they do at 6z. Of course this can trend wetter at 78 hours out but we’ll see. I’m not too excited 

6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Hopefully just a blip since all other guidance is wetter and has gotten better.  It is worriesome that the Euro has gotten progressively drier since 12z yesterday.

GFS looks pretty dry so not sure we can say all guidance 

28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Overnight EPS looked good to me through Day 9.  4-5 inch mean across DC, all of MD.  Control over a foot.  Close to half of the members give us three or more inches.  About 10 big hitters....keep in mind this is potentially from Friday, Monday, and the midweek big daddy.

In my opinion the one to watch is Monday. I don’t buy the wave midweek. Models try to hold back energy all the time and develop that 2nd piece and it often doesn’t work out. 

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Well looking at Friday, all of the 18z models appear to be trending colder, further south.  1-3 inches is nothing to scoff at on March 1.  There would be some years that we would be yearning for it!!!

The ICON and Canadian went a little north and/or warmer 

Likely to end up south but it develops it so that’s a win for now 

Looks like GFS might be game for the 2nd wave...

Just now, AmericanWxFreak said:

referring to the day 6 and 8 storms?

Yeah. I feel like I’ve seen that evolution modeled a lot in the past and it tends not to happen...tends to go towards one more bigger storm evolution. Maybe I’m wrong 

Not trying to be a downer but is the 2nd wave idea really that plausible? Seems like not much spacing between that and the earlier, more well developed slp a day or two earlier. 

Euro would be a nice little early morning event I guess...perfect timing of 1am-10am or so. Temp starts at 34-35ish around 1, drops to 29-30 at 7am and rises to 38-39 by 1pm. Probably would melt fast but another small morning event to cash in on

41 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Hard to get tired of something I have only had one of.

Unless its something like Murphy's Stout.

Moved on dogfish head American beauty. Teddy bears on a bottle, win win. Have you really only had one? I’ve had 2 4” storms and I thought my winters been bad 

Can we actually talk about if the Euro ensembles showed any snow or not? I’d look for myself but I’m 6 deep in Murphy’s Irish stouts 

Lol I would love to see the snowmap on that. Too bad it doesn’t go out far enough 

Anybody got a mesoscale report? Where’s the 850 line and such?

Ok now it’s puking lol. Road caved in about 10 mins 

Finally. Pretty heavy snow, but the flakes aren’t great..seem like the really wet thin flakes if that makes sense 

I’m in the dark green but it’s still pixie-ish here 

I can confirm dandruff falling from sky in Dundalk Md

Just now, GEOS5ftw said:

Just did a fun measurement with the kitchen scale - put out a large plate and measured 52 grams in 15 minutes. Dividing by the area of the plate gives a mass change of 0.34 g/hr/cm^2 which is 3.4 mm/hr, close to what some of the mesos were predicting in the narrow bands. Fun stuff. 

What did this guy just do? Still nothing in east Baltimore. This looks like NOVA storm 

Why is Dundalk the snow hole pit. Nada yet. But looks like a thunderstorm cloud to my west 

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Right on cue losetoa6 with a snow obs before we get going here in the city.

It’s all the steam coming from the sewers and the crappy gangbangers

Just now, dailylurker said:

Woke up to nothing here in AA country. Looks like I'll be headed to work today. 

Not a surprise. Was never suppose to start until about 7ish

Just now, Steve25 said:

Pardon my ignorance, but whats the difference between -SN and SN?

-sn is light. Sn is moderate +snow is heavy

3 minutes ago, Bazooka Joe said:

I'm kind of surprised after looking at the radar.  The snow cuts off pretty quickly south of Richmond so the event this morning doesn't look long lived.  Most mets miscalculated badly on the onset time of the snow, obviously underestimating how strong the dry air was in place.  There's a line of heavy rain west and south of the Mid-Atlantic so as that swings northeast, I would imagine that will be periods of heavy rain this afternoon into the evening hours.   In any rate, I don't see how we're going to get more than 3" in my area.  If you happen to be lucky enough to get under one of those heavier snow cells, it will come down fast and furious but the coverage of those rates isn't all that impressive.  What would be perfect for me is for a few inches to cover the ground and then go to a lighter sleet then no precipitation until the heavier stuff arrives later today.  At least that would minimize excessive rainfall. 

Not sure what you mean with the onset part...this has always been a within 1 hour of 7am start time for Baltimore