Yardstickgozinya

This post includes both the Spc and Noaa forcast for today. They have been trimmed down only to include localized convective and precipitation details to reduce clutter.

SPC AC 050548

Day 1 Convective Outlook  

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

  ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE

   EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

 ...SUMMARY...

   Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind

   gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the

   eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe

   storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also

   from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic.

 ...Synopsis...

 An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning,

   and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east

   across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and

   early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt

   will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic

   and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection

   will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an

   eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far

   north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with

   northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. 

  The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence

   of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to

   severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible,

   with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA

   where low-level moisture will be greater.

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A deep surface low tracking west of Pennsylvania into the Great
Lakes will set up an active period of weather on Wednesday,
with several threats to speak about. An enhanced (55-60kt) LLJ
and surging PWATs should result in a band of moderate to heavy
rain tracking east across the area between 12Z-21Z Wed. CAMs
support QPF in excess of one inch across portions of the Endless
Mountains and northern tier. After this initial slug of
rainfall, a second round of convection is likely to accompany
an arriving cold/occluded front during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Latest SPC outlook paints most of Central and Southern PA within
a slight risk of severe weather late Wed afternoon and evening.
Instability in recent model guidance remains somewhat limited
(less than 500 J/kg) but still several hundred J/kg in concert
with strong shear justifies the SLGT risk of damaging wind gusts
with a broken line of convection along the front. Although the main
threat remains locally damaging wind gusts, there will be
favorable shear parameters for large hail (across the
southwest part of the forecast area.

The aforementioned rainfall, coupled with remaining snow on the
ground across the northern tier will bring about rises on
streams. At this time, rainfall alone is not expected to bring
about any flooding concerns, but the combination of snow melt
and the wildcard of potential ice jams means there is an
elevated risk of flooding Wednesday afternoon and evening over
the N Mtns. Recent MARFC SWE across the N Mtns is in the 0.25
to 0.50 inch range.

This man allows hate crimes on a website he owns and operates called American Weather Forums

Make note that this mornings forecast discussion must have been completed before the spc expanded the sligh risk north. I also trimmed down both the Spc and Noaa forcast to only include localized convective and precipitation details to reduce clutter.

A deep surface low is progged to track west of PA into the GrtLks by late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Ahead of this system,a 50-60kt southerly low level jet and associated plume of Gulf moisture is progged to sweep across PA. A ribbon of +3-4SD pwats, combined with strong upper level diffluence ahead of the upper trough, should support a band of moderate to heavy rain the first half of Wednesday, followed by a round of PM convection along the trailing cold/occluded front. Elevated instability and strong large scale forcing in the model guidance supports a chance of tsra across the entire area Wed PM. While the focus for possible severe weather is over the southern tier of the state, a MRGL outlook covers much of central PA with a sliver of SLGT extending into far southern Lancaster and York Counties where proximity to the warm sector and where more appreciable instability is possible along and south of potential triple point low track. EPS plumes still suggestive of rainfall totals by late Wed in the 0.75 and 1 inch range over the bulk of Central PA, with orographic enhancement leading to totals close to 1.5 inches over the higher ridgetops of Sullivan/Schuylkill Counties. This amount of rain by itself should not cause flooding issues based on latest flash flood/headwater guidance from the RFC. However, will have to watch for possible localized ice jam issues over the N Mtn, and contribution for SWE locked up in the ice/snow pack over the North Central Mountains, which NOHRSC shows is locally 1-2"+ and sfc dewpoints in the upper 40s would promote appreciable melting.

SPC AC 040614

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic...
   Early period convective precipitation may contribute to
   boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing
   insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the
   day.  Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model
   forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic
   profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective
   instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.  Guidance
   has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered
   pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the
   environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to
   scattered organized convection, including supercells@Itstrainingtime.

   ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025

I hope you're ok out there @Bubbler86. I was  thinking of you today as the next system comes into the range of the hrrr.

@Blizzard of 93 Mapfap is not the same without a hand from you . 

39 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Wednesday

 

Rain before 4pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. High near 58. South wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Wednesday Night

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 10pm, then showers between 10pm and 1am. Low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

 

Lol ok so I did read about the chance for heavy rain but I guess i never copied it or it just got added. I was super stoned and confused from the wake and bake lol. 

A deep surface low is progged to track west of PA into the Grt
Lks Wednesday. Ahead of this system, a 50-60kt southerly low
level jet and associated plume of Gulf moisture is progged to
sweep across PA. A ribbon of +3-4SD pwats, combined with strong
upper level diffluence ahead of the upper trough, should
support a band of moderate to heavy rain the first half of Wednesday,
followed by a round of PM convection along the trailing
cold/occluded front.

Elevated instability and strong large scale forcing in the
model guidance supports a chance of PM tsra across the entire
area Wed. However, the focus for possible severe weather is over
the southern tier of the state, where more appreciable
instability is possible ahead of a weak triple-point low.

Current EPS plumes suggest rainfall totals by late Wed are
likely to range between 0.75 and 1 inch over the bulk of
Central PA, with orographic enhancement leading to totals close
to 1.5 inches over the higher ridgetops of Sullivan/Schuylkill
Counties. This amount of rain by itself should not cause
flooding issues based on latest flash flood/headwater guidance
from the RFC. However, will have to watch for possible localized
ice jam issues over the N Mtns.

Slight risk touches the southe east part of our board Wednesday. 

I apologize. I could swear I read something about high qpf somewhere. There is no mention of good rain in the forcast discussion atp.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A milder return southwest flow on the backside of departing
high pressure begins Monday. Model RH time sections support
abundant sunshine, which should help temps recover to near
seasonal averages by Monday afternoon.

A warm front lifting through the E Grt Lks is likely to spread
increasing cloudiness into the region Monday night into Tuesday,
with a slight chance of a shower over the NW Mtns. A
strengthening southerly flow will advect increasingly mild air
into Central PA with GEFS 2m temp anomalies supportive of high
temps several degrees above seasonal normals by Tuesday
afternoon.

A sprawling area of slow moving low pressure will bring showers
to the region late Tuesday night and Wednesday, with general
thunder in the warm sector a possibility over our southern tier
as cold front crosses the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10 PM Update...Main game is still Wed-Wed night as a mature
cyclone moves through. Holding onto schc/chc TS for the srn half
or so of the CWA Wed aftn/eve. Post-frontal winds should be
close to advy for many, esp the higher elevations on Thurs.
We`ll also continue to keep the max temps colder than NBM
guidance on Thurs as wrn locations may have temps drop slightly
thru the day.

Prev...
Overall still looking at a deep storm system lifting northeast
from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This
system will bring mild temperatures, gusty winds, and widespread
showers to the area on Wednesday. Since the system is lifting
northward, this will likely limit the adverse weather.

However, even with the system pulling northward, timing of the
cold front, strong dynamics, and time of day, will support some
chance of thunder. Have a slight chance of thunder late in the
day on Wed.

Colder temperatures return behind this departing system, into
the later part of the week.

A cold front next weekend could bring some light precipitation
to the area late week, but not expecting any big systems at
this point.

SPC AC 030550

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
   TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
   CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps
   a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few
   tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi
   Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night.

   ...Discussion...
   Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments
   into and through this period.  However, better consensus is evident
   among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale
   pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. 
   Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the
   Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains
   through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night,
   accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis.  

   Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and
   deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through
   northern Illinois during this period.  In the wake of the cyclone, a
   substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the
   southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower
   Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday.  This may be preceded by a more
   modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the
   outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of
   the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge
   shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying
   large-scale mid/upper troughing.

   A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the
   western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across
   eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting
   eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley.  In
   response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models
   suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will
   probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late
   Tuesday night.

   Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially
   extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through
   southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture
   return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable
   surface-based layer.  However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output
   still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while
   developing eastward through the day.

   Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated
   and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale
   ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to
   support extensive convective development across the interior U.S.
   Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least
   a conditional risk for severe storms.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...
   The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone
   across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary
   initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this
   period.  As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the
   southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it
   contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave
   perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions
   may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm
   cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells.

   Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may
   include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer
   on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi
   during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for
   supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes.  With the
   strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the
   convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential
   remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster
   developing along/above a maturing cold pool

   Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface
   thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the
   large-scale forcing.  Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast
   soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating
   factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential,
   particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the
   eastern Gulf Coast states.

   ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 0713Z (2:13AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

  Not a lot of change since yesterday in coverage or severe probabilities in the south  for tuesdays event . NOAA does mention the chance for some good rain and perhaps some thunder for our area in the forcast discussion. 

I apologize @SnowPlowGuy88I only reported your post because it seems suspicious.  Nothing personal just precautionary. 

5 minutes ago, SnowPlowGuy88 said:

I bought a sick ass Eagles Super Bowl T Shirt. Check out heavyslime.com. I got the now sold out championship shirt. Pic is too large to upload. 

I apologize but this is quite random. Has @SnowPlowGuy88account been compromised?

Seeing that most of the top posters are on a break atm I see no need to comply with there silly rules at this point. Flatheadsickness Mode Activated.  

What a year. Very sad and destructive year. But absolutely fascinating nonetheless.

10 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

I don't go to a bar to watch fuckin Julia Childs lol 

I agree. The entertainment value of Julie C's shows are most enjoyable In  private. 

19 hours ago, Ruin said:

huh? lol you make no sense with all that slang you know? go head attack me personally I could care less  

 Well, if you watched enough, Wagon Train and Bonanza you'd be cultured enough to understand.  

Dude I'm just fucking with you.  You got real thin skin for a guy that likes to say things that you know will piss people off. I've actually already helped you and stuck up for you ass hole . Anyways, a good place for you to start is with Noaa's forcast discussions.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

They aren't  going to be as accurate as you expect them to be, but  they will  often tell you how confident they are in their forecast, and if you read it enough, you will also learn from it. 

On 2/27/2025 at 1:53 PM, WmsptWx said:

I think this is more Louisiana and Mississippi for a tornado outbreak, but severe storms should reach as far as Atlanta and then eventually parts of MD and VA. 

Good call . Expanded to include those areas.  

3 hours ago, Ruin said:

lol they use the same models 

You got a whole bull wagon full of words desparato, for a dude wrangler that's all hat and no cattle. I've dealt with sap sucking, yellow belly's like you before.  A coward like you ain't worth a spitting  dime’s worth of dogs meat. Why I reckon if it came to it, we can draw at high noon, unless you ain't got the guts partner.

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

ABC27 mentions chance of thunderstorms next week.

 Lightning should continue to be pretty easy to come by as long as the sun stays active.  I didn't get directly affected by much convection tast year, but the little I did get and watched pass by didn't disappoint in the stroke department. Pretty much every month this winter delivered a powerful lightning event in PA and / or the MA. If it was up to me, I would personally make sure that every member of this wonderful thread is extremely satisfied in the stroke department multiple times this year. 

https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/24/9119/2024/

https://phys.org/news/2014-05-high-speed-solar-lightning-earth.html

43 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Yeah I'm alright with there not being a widespread outbreak here. I was in Wormleysburg back in 2010 and we had an outbreak where Camp Hill actually used a siren. 

 

If I never have to go through that again, I'll be okay. 

July 25 2010 ?

SPC AC 271002

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

   Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley...
   A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on
   Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central
   High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates
   east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across
   the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture
   return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it
   moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on
   D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday
   afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains.
   Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with
   continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level
   moisture advection continues. 

   By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be
   complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS
   and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is
   increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with
   an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern
   Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS
   has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the
   confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a
   significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe
   weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central
   Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event
   draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection
   including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line
   will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including
   strong tornadoes. 

   ...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast...
   The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended
   guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater
   moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the
   Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very
   strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat
   from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the
   Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by
   prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening
   surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat
   exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday.

   ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025

I don't feel like explaining myself later. As long as you cut onion plants back  to 4 to 6" before planting and don't have a K deficiency in your soil a few nights in 20s or a deep snow won't kill onions.  I will cover them for the teens. One of the key to big bulbs is getting your onions out early especially day neutral varieties. And controlling those leaf twisting bastard allium leafminers.