Stormchaserchuck1

lol Let's apparently root for a -2.5 La Nina, because Super El Nino's are so bad. I think in time the analog maps are more linear. Rooting for snow, I would always take a stronger, stronger El Nino.. A lot of Mets kind of make stuff up lol

Yeah it was a weird July with AZ-NM, FL, and ME having warmest July on record, 3 separated areas. But the mean trough in an El Nino, the stronger the more so, in the East, is the correlation. (Make that happen 14/20 times, and in a sample of say 6, it may coincidentally happen 2/6 times. Small dataset.)

-2.0 -2.5 ONI's have strong correlation to absolutely horrible Pacific pattern. Why wouldn't Super El Nino's be the opposite of that, expand the dataset a bit. Also, in the subsurface the eastern-base may be loosing its ground with subsurface now only +3c, vs +7c several weeks ago. The subsurface warm pool has also started to rebuild in the western region. It may end up being a healthy Moderate-Strong Nino 3.4 event.

I think the small sample set of Strong El Nino's has gotten a little bit carried away. Strong Nina's are a strong signal for -PNA and +EPO. negative subsurface, that's what I would worry about.

Why not? Would you expect a cold winter with ONI near -2.0? I think it can be easily proven that Strong El Nino's that had a bad pattern, were from times with more La Nina-like forcing (nothing is perfect).

Natural Gas trading back at 2.5, which implies a warmer Winter. The correlation is pretty strong. It had gone up to 3.0, but then a warmer August dropped it lower I guess. I have a +PNA signal for early-mid December, but that is before most of the average snowfall occurs for I-95.

There is a strong correlation between El Nino/-QBO = +10mb, and La Nina/+QBO = -10mb, It's a 70% correlation since 1948. We are going solidly El Nino and solidly -QBO, so we'll see if the correlation holds this Winter. The main impact to +10mb is -AO at +15 to +45 days, depending when in the Winter it happens, and -10mb correlates to +AO at 0 days all Winter.

Why is today so peaceful? Birds flying, beautiful clouds. It's been an "A" summer.

Here's the area https://ibb.co/86Fr69R When the CDC website allowed us to make custom indexes, I made a time series index of that red box area, and found it to be the highest correlation for the 500mb N. Pacific vs all other ENSO measurements (850mb winds, 200mb, sigma levels, OLR, SSTs, etc). It wasn't perfect, but I have seen it hit about 21/27 in the last 3 years, which I posted in past ENSO threads on this board. Definitely missed last Winter, but that was 1 big miss out of like 4 years. It's just something to keep an eye on, you can see for yourself over time. There is a pretty good now-time correlation there, to yes, the PNA.

This looks more -PNA to me than +PNA https://ibb.co/hXjDXBb Both were negative subsurface

As that Arctic low grazes Alaska, I think there is potential that the correlating +EPO ridge could overperform http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html I have seen ridges flex during -NAO's too many times recently.

The two inverse-beats 72-74 and 97-99 were both central-subsurface cold in 72-73 and 97-98, so you can make a case for the central subsurface also evening-out to not go so extreme. Central-Subsurface last Winter was positive, so using that method a subsurface Super Nino is needed this Winter to do #1.

I'm telling you, it's warming up quickly this morning under clear skies. If a line/storms get going, there is a signal that they could maintain. Question is how far west. https://ibb.co/tYFJkfQ https://ibb.co/GpSKhDt

Getting hot already, and clear skies in Bel Air, MD.

Yeah, if the ONI is 4.2 and the subsurface is negative, you would be more likely to see a -PNA pattern in the N. Pacific. I know it's getting old, but I'm just sayin'

Still some instability here in Harford Co. I wouldn't be surprised if the severe risk extends back a little west for tomorrow.

72-73, believe it or not, was a La Nina in the subsurface. That is one time of many the subsurface waters correlated with N. Pacific 500mb vs .16, .21, and .25 sigma levels.

We are getting so much precipitation. I would love for this pattern to last into the Winter... 2018, 2021 and I think 2022 were false alarms (summer/fall pattern), but we were heavy -PNA then, which we don't have now. 4th favorable summer season start but we have an El Nino now, so it's looking good for now. central-ENSO-subsurface is what I look for, and that is starting to warm again. today and yesterday west and central subsurface have gone Weak-El Nino again, which favors N. Pacific Low.

I measured the trend once, and found no correlation. + or - subsurface raw is the better indicator.

Pretty nice August warm up here.. https://ibb.co/VBYN03V I should have guessed when summer max's started passing, we would finally get warm. 594+dm Crazy how these things continue to happen with a -NAO/AO.

See, we are seeing this happen again. -NAO's are associated with our warmest times. Inversely, +NAO's could be associated with our coldest times. If this continues into the Winter, I think it could be particularly snowy/wet, given the El Nino. https://ibb.co/fndjcLL

That's a great picture. It's been a pretty earth all summer.

https://ibb.co/MRC39bT

I wonder, if the subsurface configuration doesn't change, if we see a balance between +PNA's and -PNA's this winter.

PNA pattern, especially in the Winter time. (I guess a lot of lingering negative indicators like the -PDO, are correlating here with the central subsurface region.)