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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    00z NAM at 84hr vs 90hr 18z GFS... looks better on the NAMhttps://ibb.co/bmg6rjL
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    We seem to be hitting -NAO's more often, but they are being overwhelmed. I think this +Nao/+pna-epo .. or -Nao/-pna+epo correlation is going to hold. If you look at the clouds... about 2-3 years ago we starting getting more cloud thickness. I think that is a long term graduation program. We still have a ways to go to detox all this snow-melt seasons, but I think we are trending toward something more favorable a few years down the road.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nina's after a Nino are actually a myth.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is what we should have when there is a block over the Davis Strait like this. 2 jets underneath of it.. perhaps phasing. look at this potential energy on the 18z gfs run
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looking good on the snow depth
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    976mb in Maine.. it starts phasing with the northern system.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hanging more energy back in the west.. that's one part of what we need.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PDO has been chipping away so maybe we see it in February. My intuition says probably not, if it were to be a staple mark El Nino feature it probably would have happened at some point by now. We are on Neutral heights for the N. Pacific pattern, El Nino to date.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah it makes the later part of the wave the one to watch, which would time with the -NAO rising better.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z NAM is a little flatter vs 12z GFS fwiw https://ibb.co/ftdFKW1 Hudson Bay low is moving all around.. it would be nice to get that to phase https://ibb.co/gjBvWfw
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Aleutian island block may help this thing trend NW in the coming days.. It's not like we are in some deep +pna pattern, the pacific is still favorable for a slight SE ridge.. maybe this works to our favor this time. Either way, the Euro and GFS ensembles in agreement is usually a good combo
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, we had a nice NE Pacific High pressure when the 2-3 cutters happened though https://ibb.co/GFXBnJG Now, the NAO space and 50/50 low were just about perfect, but this goes back to our argument that the Pacific is dominating right now..
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah like something over the Gulf of Alaska. Correlation works less after Jan, into Feb-Mar though. +0.53 in Jan, +0.3 in Feb, +0.2 in March <(closer we can get to GOA low with a mean trough over the east).
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    2016 is best analog, but Fall/Winter 2023-24 is #1 right now for global precipitable water since 1948
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    LR GFS has a nice -EPO.. that's what I want to see.. and +PNA. Let's get this thing going.. Whole world and the subtropics are really wet right now.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z GEFS really doesn't have much with the 16-17 storm. 3/27 members it looks like.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Following February's from those analogs look like seasonal models currently have https://ibb.co/K6mtPwr Globe is a little too cold biased for my liking, and the GOA low has been missing so far in this El Nino. Maybe D+8 model will shift a little bit.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, if that block can hold over Alaska, and close off a strong low underneath of it, downstream wave should be able to pick up energy from the gulf.. we're almost there. Still a little ways to go
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC is going with below average precip right now https://ibb.co/Zg7hQs7
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    I am interested to see if +PNA holds if we go back to -NAO past 15D..
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Stratosphere warming should hit be hitting a favorable -NAO correlation time around then, too. It's like +80-120dm on the mean at +20-25 days.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Initial trough is further SW on 18z NAM 84hr vs 12z GFS 90hr https://ibb.co/6bV088Y
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I guess we are chipping away at the PDO. I was never a believer in PDO being a leading indicator, but this Winter sure has made a case. I think we are up to -0.6 and still having a tendency to rise, so maybe a more organized +PNA can get going here in the next few weeks. It's also amazing how these El Nino constants hold (warm Dec, good 2nd half of Winter). Let's see if the +PNA can hold through February, because we are coming off the most powerful 6-year constant on record (-PNA) for February ('18-23)
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    00z NAM much different than 18z GFS at 84hr https://ibb.co/C1W8QQQ
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would have told you it's wet.. It's Global
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