Stormchaserchuck1

Initial trough is further SW on 18z NAM 84hr vs 12z GFS 90hr https://ibb.co/6bV088Y

I guess we are chipping away at the PDO. I was never a believer in PDO being a leading indicator, but this Winter sure has made a case. I think we are up to -0.6 and still having a tendency to rise, so maybe a more organized +PNA can get going here in the next few weeks. It's also amazing how these El Nino constants hold (warm Dec, good 2nd half of Winter). Let's see if the +PNA can hold through February, because we are coming off the most powerful 6-year constant on record (-PNA) for February ('18-23)

00z NAM much different than 18z GFS at 84hr https://ibb.co/C1W8QQQ

I would have told you it's wet.. It's Global

I like the long range.. ridge builds off the west coast, PNA goes positive.. this positive PNA evolution is fitting exactly the 15 analogs I came up with that had a -PNA Jan 5-13, during an El Nino or Neutral ENSO. I thought it was telling, because in roll forwards you usually see the same variable smoothed out, but it gave me a reversal to -100-120dm Aleutian low and 80dm -epo by Jan 25th. Now look at what's happening when all this positive change is happening on the model... The NAO is +. And it looks like a 2std positive event with -200dm on the D14-15 ensemble mean. I was telling PSUhoffman that, that is what we need right now to flip to a favorable pattern in the Pacific and probably on the west coast.. let's hope these probabilities hold as we go into the last week of January.

Problem is that 970s/980s mb low in SE Canada. Not going to cool down enough if that happens.

Yeah, 970s mb low in the Hudson Bay with no High around it could make for a warmer pattern even if the track is good

In September 2022, the AMO shattered records hitting +0.662 for the month. 2nd place was -0.536 in 1974 and +0.505 was the 2nd highest monthly positive reading. +15 months you see a good +WPO signal for December 2023: https://ibb.co/WKN16kw Which is also kind of a now-time +AMO indicator https://ibb.co/0qpS3t4 Feb posts a SE ridge, which is something I'm watching out for this year, as the mean of the last 6 February's in the PNA region has been +150dm (record). It will be interesting to see if that or the El Nino wins out this year. https://ibb.co/hs8h0T5

The PNA has a really strong correlation to warmth in the east in January.. >0.5 https://ibb.co/rZ5HkST We just haven't been timing it right.. we got +pna in December when the correlation was 0.1, then on Jan 1-2 the pattern changed.

I mean.. that's some pretty incredible stuff. +VP at the dateline is +PNA, but El Nino is associated with -VP at the dateline.. We all know the strong ENSO/N. Pacific correlation..

Yeah.. you're right [default positive] Counter intuitive to what you would expect in El Nino I guess the relative difference is a strong indicator.

I don't know.. east-based, west-based doesn't really account for the -PNA pattern we have seen so far. East-based most impacts the NPH (North Pacific High) https://ibb.co/bR7r8Fv and we haven't really seen any signs of that so far. I think even going into February, a +PNA would be more likely than a GOA low (-NPH pattern). It just hasn't really been building.

No shortage of precipitable water right now in the N. Hemisphere https://ibb.co/L6PLQdc https://ibb.co/WpVDLKn

Thanks. Globe has been really wet the last 4 months too. https://ibb.co/WpVDLKn

Looks like it's about 0.3 https://ibb.co/P4sqQf5 (barely above 0.0 in March)

-PNA has a strong correlation to precip. >0.5 in January https://ibb.co/ZhPJnV9 -PNA in El Nino, especially Strong El Nino.. really wet combo there

Jaleen Hurts had won 25/26 for a while there.. It was making me a little mad because I didn't think they did anything special, although you see how having a scrambling QB really ups the odds.

model error/biases are worth pointing out

Watching SE Canada pressure https://ibb.co/tC5bQQN

Block over the Aleutian islands now. A few days ago, it was Alaska. Hard not to get a little SE ridge with that in January. But there is a ridge in the WC, so maybe it can dampen the wave.

I think you're separating the Pacific and Atlantic automatically, when since 2013 they have posted a 0.30 correlation, and since 2019 a ~0.40 correlation. It may even be a greater correlation this year! I'm not saying we want a +NAO.. no way Jose that's a warmer pattern at 0.4, but if they are correlating with Pac +PNA greater than 0.40 than it's something to look for! If I could still post custom ftp files on the CDC site, I would show you an example of the last 200-300 days with -NAO/+NAO.. -nao's have a -pna/+epo, and +nao's (although less of a correlation) have weak +pna/-epo. That's all. Just pointing out a trend. (Does anyone know how to still run custom files on CDC ftp site? I used that for so much good stuff in the early 2010s (Stratosphere warming plots, time lag, etc), but they seemed to have discontinued the option to compile a list of, for example 300 custom days, as far as I know.

I think the two snowy Winters of 13-14 and 14-15 both had big +NAO's. I just say let's see if it can sync up with +PNA, if it can, like 14-15 (which was an El Nino), maybe it will be a snowy pattern. We've been having a ridge hook up with Greenland/Davis Strait ridging, so maybe we can likewise extend a trough south from Greenland too? That's my guess. It's an unmistakable pattern right now. I have to worry about Feb PNA though, because in the last 6 years we've had a mean of +150dm, which is even a few std's above enso. What a test for El Nino conditions coming up in the N. Pacific!

I get what you're saying.. The Euro also trended colder at hr120. See how it's 75% more cold over the US, just holding that other 25% with more cutting from the storm system (timing). Usually +heights over or just north of Alaska is a cold trend, but not everything's perfect.

I think the overall ridge is oriented a little too far south to really be a cold pattern. See how it's over the Bering Sea https://ibb.co/Fz2njZ0 That's -PNA territory https://ibb.co/nDVv5jq

Day 10 Euro has a 552dm block over the Davis Strait and the storm still cuts up and is rain.. as is the pattern, The Aleutians islands having a big ridge/block is overwhelming -NAO almost all the time since 18-19.