Stormchaserchuck1

20z Hrr brought the heavy snow totals furthest SW of all model runs so far, 6" to Frederick, MD. I'm pretty comfortable with where I am in Harford Co. to get 4-6".

eh.. Big difference right now between the GFS/NAM and Hrr/RAP with regards to rates. I guess they are lower resolution models.

The GFS/NAM were showing 1-2" for the last storm at about this time, and the RAP/Hrr had 4-6", and some places got 6-7".

6" in northern MD on 20z Hrr.

Everything is a bit west at 10-11hr 20z Hrr vs 19z

3-4 hours of heavy snow on 20z RAP, I-95 and NW

closed 500mb https://ibb.co/Fg4gcGV

19z Hrr appears to be shifting a little south vs 18z.

19z RAP gives DC 4".

It's transferring, but yeah a little SW.

Low pressure is on the VA/NC border at 16hr vs being off the coast of OC 22hrs 12z.

Precip not in NYC at 14hrs vs being in central Mass at 20hrs 12z. Storm is a little SW.

Pretty big differences on the 18z NAM for being 10hrs out.. sea-level low is further SW.

wow.. still stronger near NYC

18z Hrr is trending a little south 17hr vs 17z

whoa the 17z RAP still snowing

3z RAP isn't impressive down here, It's similar to the 0z GFS. SNE gets nailed on it though.

Fwiw, 2z RAP is SE of the 0z GFS with SLP at 21hr. https://ibb.co/s9XvCSg

New superstition: unpin threads that are going to snow. That one thread that we had pinned it was 80 degrees the day before.

BAM. 2" in NE, MD on the 0z Hrrr

0z vs 18z Hrrr so far https://ibb.co/0ZvwBnb

I forecasted a +PNA, but a lot of the CPC's calculations include Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska.. I'm mostly referring to Aleutian islands central-north N. Pacific trough, in reference to +PNA. In that regard, this Winter has not matched usual ENSO correlations, and really the whole event has been like that, since the Nino developed in April.

21z RAP

I edited to say that storms are digging into the West coast with more frequency though.. And general High pressure over the SW hasn't been as constant a force the last few years... so maybe we are starting to change the longer term processes (related to the Hadley-mid latitude Cell)?

You're right.. I underrated the -PDO this year. 5/5 non+PNA Mod/Strong Nino Winter's is a pretty compelling stat! If -PNA is wetter and +PNA is drier, imagine how much the difference is if you don't account for ENSO! +PNA's have been associated with El Nino's 80% of the time historically, and visa-versa. With wetter than average conditions in El Nino, what a difference the PNA makes in precip-correlation in non-ENSO times. That's why -PNA's in El Nino's have been historically good with -NAO/AO conditions. The Hadley Cell is just expanded right now.. With storms digging into the West Coast the last two Winters though, I don't know that, that isn't in the process of changing..