Stormchaserchuck1

Strongest LR +PNA signal I have seen on a 384hr GFS ensemble mean.. it looks like the weeklies/seasonals will be hitting it. https://ibb.co/xDkm28h

I don't remember seeing -250dm on the 384hr GFS ensemble mean before.. 6z GEFS has it as a solid +PNA low. Again, here's the correlation to storm placement in the east: https://ibb.co/M6msjHq

Really nice +PNA getting going here

Good post raindance. I think a lot of the warmth in that position of the country has come from +nao/+epo, where the actual El Nino forces the North Pacific High to be weaker, and that's what a more direct point of effect is. This year we have not seen that weakening of the North Pacific High like Stronger El Nino years.. funny that the energy mets will probably get it right, but it's important to know that in the future something like this sequence is less likely to happen again. I have been leaning toward a warm March for the US, because I think that's a strong trend developing over the last few years, but you make a good case for it to be an interesting month temp and storm-wise.

We're still doing really well here in precipitable water.. look near CA and FL. https://ibb.co/frw6QCv

Yeah I would say right now Feb 14th starts our storm threat window.

18z GEFS, now the WC ridge is being pushed back a few panels lol Looks good at 384hr still though.. picking up a slight -NAO in the LR this run.

That's more of a +NAO.. in the NAO domain

We were saying before that a -NAO may be hard to comeby. That shift in the mean-ridge from the south Davis strait (south based -NAO) to basically over Ontario is kind of important, because the model is now including our 80-degree day a few days ago. The analogs I was looking at were saying the +AO/NAO could be hard to switch, and look, the -NAO ridge shifted south.

We're going to go into Feb 13/14 with no snow. Global models had us below average temps/above normal precip for Jan and February, almost every run going back to September.

Yeah, its been showing it at Day 16 for a week now actually. But inside 16-days it's not holding the same strength is hit point.. today might be different though, because we're starting to pop a strong western ridge too, it's becoming a more organized pattern on the Day 16 model

Really good trend here in the LR! +PNA is massive, although it has been at the last panel for several days now. This is what you like to see though.. https://ibb.co/6YdrpgN Here are some Feb correlations to +PNA pattern: https://ibb.co/PQ4cLzn https://ibb.co/0jbdZK3 https://ibb.co/M6msjHq

Yeah my research gave Mahomes close to a 60% chance of covering. It looks like the Ravens weren't really challenged at all this year before the game. They were outplayed.

March Natural Gas... really coming in low here, the vs Gasoline/Crude Oil spread is top 5 all time. https://ibb.co/3Wg2GwQ

March Natural Gas = cheap. https://ibb.co/3Wg2GwQ

Here you go guys.. this is as close as we are getting this year. https://ibb.co/wCRcG54

It's amazing that Vegas underrates Lamar Jackson! The Ravens only have -3.5 in this game, and the home automatically gets 3 points in an even matchup. KC has not been that good this year! Ravens were leading all but the last game (resting Lamar) with 2:00 left in the 4th quarter.. only the '72 dolphins did that. Then they ended up playing 14/17 teams that finished the season >.500 (that's even after the Ravens beat most of them, with the best record in NFL), and they crushed SF in SF. and Beat Detroit 38-3! I found though that elite QBs (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, etc) beat the spread about 58% of the time, so I'm a little worried about Mahomes there, but the Ravens are much better this year than Vegas has been giving them all along the way! Even now, SF is more favored to win the SB. KC does have the #2 defense in the league this year I think.

I wish we could see who weenies you!

Still on the last panel today, the 6th day. Finally starting to slightly pop a western ridge though at 6z 384hr.

Pattern change is still stuck at hr384, but it's not really trending too well before then. +PNA of significance showed up 5 days ago on the last panel, and it's still on that last panel.. trended to neutral +1-5 days.

There is not that much difference in the NAO because of "The -PDO depressing El Nino".

50/50 low and N. Pacific low as the two dominant N. Hemisphere features.. that's what it looks like in the big snowstorm examples. Let's see if the model holds those features as we get closer, like inside 12 days.. I say that because it's been so warm lately, and model flux has been above average this year.

That's what it looks like.. there has been a subsurface anti-correlation the last 2 Winter's. This year when the negative anomalies started showing up in the last week or two, we shifted to +pna and that looks to continue. Last February when we had warm water in the central subsurface by Jan-Feb, the atmosphere went -pna. I found that historically the opposite is usually true.

There is a big difference between the advertised pattern and your analogs. That +200dm anomaly over Greenland vs +70dm is a big difference.

With the amount of moisture available, I don't see why Boston couldn't get in on it too.