Stormchaserchuck1

Solar Min is included in the maps. It's Max minus Min If the Solar is 500 (Min) and Max is 1500 (Max) and the average is 1000, Min is [-500] and Max is [+500] The map is default positive phase, with both included, so for the Min, just flip the correlation coefficient around (+0.3 over Greenland vs -0.3). But it's also part of the same map.

It only goes out to +24 months. It would have to be manual to do +3 to +4 years. What I like about the correlation composites, is it takes both sides of the variable into account.. so those images are Solar Max minus Solar Min. Lots of data.

Good post.. lots of data shows +years after a solar peak has the highest cold season NAO correlation Solar Max +0 years Solar Max +1 year Solar Max +2 years As you can see, the south part of the NAO measurement (central North Atlantic High pressure) increases pretty substantially +2 years time from Solar peak. The final image looks more uniform +NAO, vs just a northern latitude feature in the first image.

We've only had 1 strong Aleutian High pressure pattern since November.. Jan 15 - Feb 10. LR models are showing the PNA dipping below -1 at Day 10+.. but yeah, it's been a little different for the last 6 months. The long range could favor a strong ridge in the Midwest and Southeast (correlation this map is opposite for negative phase) if the -PNA pans out

I'm down to 48F already.. during strong +AO. This shows how shortened wavelengths in May make different things possible.. if it were January, I might still be 48F

PNA usually doesn't carry year-to-year.. good point. In fact, it commonly reverses in the NOI area (North Pacific High), off the West coast. That to me says that it usually precedes changing ENSO conditions (+PNA a year before more La Nina, -PNA a year before more El Nino.. slight correlation there, but it's an interesting one)

I'm just saying, why would a consistently identified index not change year-around if it was CC. Now, I think the long term NAO is biased a little too negative in the averages, but if it was CC, you would see it more universally heading in a direction. It may be a little more decadally cyclical.

Much less El Nino than before.. only 13%. The SOI leads the way again.. It's been positive 8 straight months through April (last year it was Neutral leading the way for a weaker ENSO than originally thought, as per the subsurface and early surface trends).

^Good stuff bro. The cold water that we were seeing off of Africa does appear to be at least neutralizing. You may be right about the warming trend in the tropics late Spring. I still think the +NAO over the next 6 days isn't that great, but it appears to be switching in the medium/long range.

After a quick review, it looks like the early-1900s were more +NAO. This looks more cyclical since the 1890s, and although 3 swings is not much, it may even run in 50-year cycles, which we could actually be in the middle of.

I was using DJFM, but it's interesting to see that there's still only 1 example in 14 years, using DJF. +0.25 is not that much. There isn't NAO data from the 1930s, but imo the 1930s through early 1950s were probably more +NAO.

I'm not so sure the NAO is tied to CC. Why have other seasons had -NAO's, some strong -NAO? The Winter NAO state for the last 14 years is a bit of an anomaly, because it hasn't happened that way in other seasons. Don't get me wrong, I would say the trend is warmer and less snowy, but that N. Atlantic pressure index has not been favorable. With more global precipitable water now though, I think a -NAO these days would be less dry than several decades ago.

I would take -NAO though. It's about a 0.5 or 75% correlation. Since 11-12, the lowest Winter NAO (DJFM) we have had is -0.14! And in that time there have been 18 Winter months >+1.12 NAO and 0 Winter months <-1.12 NAO. Remember, the NAO is a SLP measurement, so it's not always aligned with 500mb. We know about the record snow drought for PHL-NYC the last 7-8 years.. and every one of them has been +NAO. Not a perfect correlation, but a good one..

^Very interesting! The NAO looks to be pretty positive for the next 7 days, which is anti-Atlantic tripole. Remember, May is kind of a sensitive month for south-central Atlantic warming and the following season.

Pretty nice Aleutian High pattern getting going at Day 13+ on the GEFS. Let's see what happens, that is associated with possibly some cooling in the ENSO subsurface, and a short term trend to more -PDO. Could pop a nice ridge in the Midwest, too.

I think it's more after the fact. Now, I think in a long term PDO phase, the subsurface moves to the state, and the thermocline does have impact on the H5 pattern (subsurface takes longer to change, longer to move back). However, that didn't work out so good last Winter, when we were coming off of a record 4-year -PDO period and the +PNA was mostly present. Since November, the only strong Aleutian High pattern that we have seen was Jan 15 - Feb 10. Just 1 example. A shift has generally occurred. It will be interesting to see how that progresses in the Summer. The PDO doesn't have real high year-to-year correlations believe it or not, and even +several months its correlation wanes. A lot of the high-correlation-PDO composites that you see are because the PNA impacts it in now-time.

Orioles tied for 2nd worst record in the AL right now. I knew those 6th place world series betting odds preseason were too bullish.

Really nice cold 500mb +NAO for the next 7 days. That's what I want to see more of through the late Spring/Summer to have more -EPO next Winter.

I think you did pretty good Ray.

In 2001, I was driving from Phoenix to San Diego. It was 111 degrees. In the middle of the trip, we hit a hail storm that must have stalled out over the same spot for 2 hours. There was 5-6" of hail on the ground. We had to pull over and wait for it to partially melt. The car temp dropped to 46 degrees in the middle of the hail storm.. it was a wild sight with cactus' completely covered in ice. That area can get a good dumping because storms don't move much.. I think the hail on the ground only covered a 1-mile radius.

October 2024 was the strongest monthly PDO on record, at -3.81. Rolled forward +15 months to 2 Winter's later, the tendency is slight -PNA, but a little bit more of a -NAO here (map is default positive, so it's the opposite) The 1-year lead PDO doesn't appear to be that impactful for 15 months later (testing the subsurface PDO theory), but there is a slight -PNA signal.

We are still in decadal -PDO. The problem with that is that the index was so extremely negative the last few years, that even if there is a rebound, the subsurface is still pretty warm in the North Pacific PDO region. We were rebounding nicely in the PDO through the late Winter and March.. Now I think it has stabilized with the NOAA PDO index still near -1, and other readings are near -0.5 (Gawx knows more about this difference). Nino 1+2 being so warm in March rolled forward to a nice +PDO composite for November, but now Nino 1+2 has dropped to negative, so I don't know that, that is still valid. I would guess it stays near neutral, or slightly negative, but the only real strong Aleutian High pressure we have had since November was Jan 15 - Feb 10. Just one example of that really. It does seem to have changed a bit in the N. Pacific compared to the last few years.

I'm surprised that you didn't jump on that 1970-now warming image, since the 1970s were one of the coldest decades

December Natural Gas contract is almost right at $5... I usually say below $5 favors +NAO, and above $5 favors -NAO.. below $3 stronger +NAO, and above $8 stronger -NAO.. So right now almost exactly neutral on NAO prediction there. March '26 Natural Gas is $4.20.. a slight +NAO lean for later in the Winter.

QBO should be negative.. March to April went from +11 to +6. When it changes phases it usually lasts at least 10 months. -QBO with El Nino favors Stratosphere warmings, but ENSO looks to be more Neutral this Winter. -QBO's with neg-Neutral ENSO have been known for cold December's then switching to warmer Jan-Feb (89-90, 05-06), but there's not enough data to say that for sure. My N. Atlantic SST method predicted +0.52 NAO last Winter (DJFM), and it ended up being +0.65. That makes it 15-5 on getting the right sign in real time since I came up with it in 2005. Also 11-9 within the estimated standard deviation of +0.54. The index runs May-Sept, so it's too early to say where it's going right now.