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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here's the area https://ibb.co/86Fr69R When the CDC website allowed us to make custom indexes, I made a time series index of that red box area, and found it to be the highest correlation for the 500mb N. Pacific vs all other ENSO measurements (850mb winds, 200mb, sigma levels, OLR, SSTs, etc). It wasn't perfect, but I have seen it hit about 21/27 in the last 3 years, which I posted in past ENSO threads on this board. Definitely missed last Winter, but that was 1 big miss out of like 4 years. It's just something to keep an eye on, you can see for yourself over time. There is a pretty good now-time correlation there, to yes, the PNA.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    This looks more -PNA to me than +PNA https://ibb.co/hXjDXBb Both were negative subsurface
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    As that Arctic low grazes Alaska, I think there is potential that the correlating +EPO ridge could overperform http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html I have seen ridges flex during -NAO's too many times recently.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    The two inverse-beats 72-74 and 97-99 were both central-subsurface cold in 72-73 and 97-98, so you can make a case for the central subsurface also evening-out to not go so extreme. Central-Subsurface last Winter was positive, so using that method a subsurface Super Nino is needed this Winter to do #1.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm telling you, it's warming up quickly this morning under clear skies. If a line/storms get going, there is a signal that they could maintain. Question is how far west. https://ibb.co/tYFJkfQ https://ibb.co/GpSKhDt
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Getting hot already, and clear skies in Bel Air, MD.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, if the ONI is 4.2 and the subsurface is negative, you would be more likely to see a -PNA pattern in the N. Pacific. I know it's getting old, but I'm just sayin'
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still some instability here in Harford Co. I wouldn't be surprised if the severe risk extends back a little west for tomorrow.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    72-73, believe it or not, was a La Nina in the subsurface. That is one time of many the subsurface waters correlated with N. Pacific 500mb vs .16, .21, and .25 sigma levels.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    We are getting so much precipitation. I would love for this pattern to last into the Winter... 2018, 2021 and I think 2022 were false alarms (summer/fall pattern), but we were heavy -PNA then, which we don't have now. 4th favorable summer season start but we have an El Nino now, so it's looking good for now. central-ENSO-subsurface is what I look for, and that is starting to warm again. today and yesterday west and central subsurface have gone Weak-El Nino again, which favors N. Pacific Low.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I measured the trend once, and found no correlation. + or - subsurface raw is the better indicator.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty nice August warm up here.. https://ibb.co/VBYN03V I should have guessed when summer max's started passing, we would finally get warm. 594+dm Crazy how these things continue to happen with a -NAO/AO.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    See, we are seeing this happen again. -NAO's are associated with our warmest times. Inversely, +NAO's could be associated with our coldest times. If this continues into the Winter, I think it could be particularly snowy/wet, given the El Nino. https://ibb.co/fndjcLL
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a great picture. It's been a pretty earth all summer.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    https://ibb.co/MRC39bT
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wonder, if the subsurface configuration doesn't change, if we see a balance between +PNA's and -PNA's this winter.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    PNA pattern, especially in the Winter time. (I guess a lot of lingering negative indicators like the -PDO, are correlating here with the central subsurface region.)
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Believe it or not, the ENSO subsurface (I've found to be the strongest indicator overall) is barely positive. https://ibb.co/ZWhRppb
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Last Winter the method finished at about +0.30, and the CPC NAO verification was +0.22
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Region A = +0.30, Region B = +0.13 A-B/2 = +0.08 DJFM NAO prediction +0.08 Winter NAO, 65% of the time (May-Sept) through https://ibb.co/56L3cZX If it were to end today, 50% chance for -0.46 to +0.62 (0.54SD) DJFM
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's probably true. 74* and Rain here, I don't see how this is going to get to be that strong.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's only 88F today, not really high enough to validate all this high risk stuff.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Rain today may depress the threat for severe wx tomorrow.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    65-66 and 72-73 -PNA's are the only breaks.. besides that you are like 20/22 in satellite era for stronger events (El Nino = +PNA or GOA low and La Nina = -PNA or GOA high).
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Try correlating that atmospheric layer to something like the PNA or North American pattern.. you'll find it's pretty useless as an indicator. Nino 3.4 SSTs have a higher correlation to the pattern. I made a time series a while ago of ENSO variables, and those 3 sigma levels ranked pretty low. Nino 3.4 and 3 SSTs are better.
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