Stormchaserchuck1

>+7c now in the subsurface of TAO/Triton maps. What I think is interesting is that the western subsurface has warmed back to +1c, when most of the Stronger El Nino years were colder in the western regions by now. A 2nd year Neutral/El nino could be more likely.

You don't even have a strong 500mb ridge overhead. All the way out near Africa a TC is about to develop.

We had a global warming spike until May. Now the S. Hemisphere is warming pretty good, so I'm not sure it's over. I did do a research that years after the NAO didn't correlate (negative-warm here, positive-cold here), the following year the pattern was uniform to indexes 2x or 2SD better, so if we have a +PNA or GOA low (more likely in El Nino) it should put a 3rd wave trough over the EC in the Winter.

Droughts, then Moderate-Strong El Nino's have given us some good results in the past.

Subsurface is really flexing +. If we go Strong El Nino this year, it could tip the scales to go back to cold in 2024 (I was seeing earlier that we had the potential for a 2-year El Nino.

We are also weighing pretty heavily on a +PNA this December (Dec 2023), but it could moderate slightly when last year was more + at the end of Dec.

This year-to-year correlation is still valid. I'd expect a -AO (Artic circle warmth) at the same time next year. That could be a strong start to Artic ice melt next year, and current conditions over Antarctica are the 2nd point showing that could be a good start to next year.

Early season storms are more likely to track W->E 20N/60W is a huge point difference to pass north or south of. 70/30 vs 10/90 or something.

ENSO subsurface has warmed up to almost +7c in the east, meaning that we will probably see a rapidly strengthening El Nino at least through July. Since year 2000, 16/21 Seasons have had 15+ TC [tropical cyclone]. (All 5 under 15 were developing El Nino's) (No season non-El Nino since 2000 has had under 15TC. Most recent, 2018 was a rapidly developing Summer El Nino (although weak): 15TC. 2016 was the most recent rapidly developing Summer La Nina: 15TC.

Subsurface is taking on Moderate-Strong El Nino configuration with >+6c in the east, and cooling in the west.

Just some musings because the thread is dead.. These droughts have lately been filled in there after by above average precipitation.. Since June is below normal, I can see July and August potentially being above average temperatures, as that is the macro pattern. (Watch the LR pattern, Days 10-15 for favorable tropical tracks to hit the EC, if anything develops this early..) I said before that the precip pattern has preceeded some harsh, snowy Winters.. this correlation may hit early, and neutralize for the Winter, I'd give us a 250-300% chance of hitting above average rainfall with a tropical system early in the season.. If we don't get that correlation by August, watch for some +PNA signals.

A beautiful, windy day. I guess all the rain at this point will come from thunderstorms, huh?

AMO has recently had an inverse correlation to ENSO. Since 1995 +AMO change, we have seen 8 El Nino's and 15 La Nina's. Here is May AMO correlation to Dec: https://ibb.co/BTQ2pzk

That warm wave seems to be leveling out now. 12z GFS ensembles look actually La Ninaish in the MR/LR, Take it for what it's worth. I contest that the globe is in a state that would have to spin up a +1c> Nino to level it off, call it -AAM or whatever.

We're definitely due. Someone did a correlation that Winter's like 2002 followed dry times. Sometimes those far out correlations hit closer term, could be a tropical storm if we stay dry until then..

Btw it's unhealthy that everyone is 20-50x more talking because of the smoke.

It's been strangely cloudy but no chance of rain the last 2 days. I wonder if anything different is going on weatherwise (besides the smoke).

It would be nice to see the decadal NAO go negative. It's ripe conditions for that I think. -NAO's keep getting sheared out. And when the NAO is negative the Pacific pattern always changes a certain way to support us being warmer, something like "not being realized within X box". (I wonder if a super, super -NAO is possible to happen).

NAO remains variable.. no signs of sustained, long duration -NAO, and it fluctuates on future models a lot. N. Pacific pattern >>>.

This -1 area is keeping us away from next level (Strong) El Nino. https://ibb.co/FmySPLG Edit: with the way the Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up, those correlations are rigid, I wouldn't be surprised to see the central-subsurface cold pool keep/expand through the season.

The CFS has a trend bias.

21/11/5

Just saying, Natural Gas has moved from 2.1 to 2.6, now back to 2.1. I'm getting preliminary -NAO signals, using my N. Atlantic SST method, and ENSO/QBO, so we might be looking at +EPO/-PNA part of the time.

With -QBO and warm western subsurface, I think we "want" a stronger Nino.. Weak to Moderate looks likely though. 18-19 showed that Weaker El Nino's can sometimes be conquered by the Pacific trend. I have a really strong +PNA signal for Dec, using methods unconnected to ENSO...

I just want to point out again the macro pattern- no clouds/clouds. I think going into the Winter it's one of those situations where we could have a 12-36" storm, or nothing at all, a snow drought. I think that we are creating a lot of tendency for a coastal storm, which started last Winter.