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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's very hard to go into and out of a -NAO without a Trace or some light snow. I had a dusting last March when the NAO was heading back to 0, and in December it snowed briefly when the NAO was lifting up too.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^ Since 1948, El Nino/-QBO correlates to +anomaly at 10mb in the Winter 75% of the time, and La Nina/+QBO correlates to -anomaly at 10mb in the Winter 75% of the time. The El Nino is +2.1, and QBO -19, so they are both top 15% strongest.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    If it's starting today, the highest correlation to 500mb -NAO starts ~Jan 5-10.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is a strong 11-15 day signal for +EPO on the 6z GEFS. https://ibb.co/sq5tH7X We haven't had any snow in stronger +EPO I think for at least the last 5-6 years. Looking for the model to change (it's been in flux more than average this year), or for that AK trough to become +PNA in the time after... but we likely won't see any snow for the next 15-16 days after today. That can also be a very warm pattern as it evolves.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Doesn't explain why the N. Pacific low ends up in Alaska. Truth is it's just a handful of years, and given more examples, the normal forcing rules will prevail: North and South of where the OLR/heat is on the equator. Here's Jan-Feb.. no correlation over Alaska https://ibb.co/1XjjcNm December.. gasp.. a 0.1 correlation over Alaska lol which I think is just a lack of samples https://ibb.co/V2CyLcG Wavelengths does make Jan-Feb overall a higher correlation though.. no doubt the correlation could kick into gear then.. but I do think it's something else at play really fighting +PNA right now.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    The actual tropical forcing should favor a cooler Dec as well. What is so special about the month December that makes it break normal ENSO-forcing? Too many lazy correlations imo
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    500mb low over Alaska is the worst pattern for snow.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    I know.. I'm starting to root for January to be warm lol. Euro weeklies bust and every other seasonal model.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks to me like it's a load pattern for late Dec/early Jan -NAO.. Ridge over the NE-eastern Canada and Scandinavia roll forward to about a +60dm anomaly over Greenland in 1-2 weeks. in other words, all the forecasts for cold coming around and after Christmas are giving us a blowtorch pattern before then lol. There is heavy model agreement for a +10mb in the first week of Jan too, so that may also be part of what we are seeing as a -NAO load pattern.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    So tired of hearing about the MJO, it's stale. In that last 5 years, real time, I found that it's not a very successful forecasting method. My roll forward methods also showed close to random success beyond D-0. Nino 3.4 is +2.15, why not focus on that? That's what's not working. lol
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    They actually vary at different times of the year. In Nov, it takes 10mb 40-50 days to downwell, and in March, 10-15 days on average. Dec 25th the lag is 30 days, and Jan 15 the lag is 25 days, so that would make the Jan 25-Feb 10 period the highest likely to have -NAO.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    10mb Correlation to 500mb -NAO around Jan 9th is ~+25 days, so that would favor -NAO centered on Feb 3.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    We held the -NAO through the end of December that year, with the N. Pacific ridge even intensifying (expanded -AO re-up). https://ibb.co/qB11CVd https://ibb.co/vZCvYJd Current models today have -NAO sticking in the medium range, and maybe the long range. The -PNA in Dec 2010 was actually the start of a phase shift, We hadn't seen values anywhere near that in the PNA region since satellite era in 1948. Dec 2021 eventually topped that.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Wow-- AO near -3 right now.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not true.. December has the highest correlation in the NE https://ibb.co/XWm9VzH https://ibb.co/QDy6k40 https://ibb.co/Jk4TxVc
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    December low Natural Gas price for the following February, 20 years data since 1997. https://ibb.co/QjxPLwW 2.78, top 10 lowest analogs averaged about 2.5, top 10 highest analogs averaged about 6.0.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since 2019, and really 2013, -NAO has been correlating with -PNA/+EPO, and +NAO has been correlating with +PNA/-EPO. The frequency of happenings is greater than what would be random.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look familiar? These are our last two Dec 10-18's (2021, 2022) https://ibb.co/R3Pcbt3
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually, we had a strong -PNA Dec 10-18 each of the last two years. https://ibb.co/FmP0kb1 https://ibb.co/DQcP131 Current models have the -PNA again for Dec 10-18 this year.. this tendency toward continuum despite El Nino makes me think again we don't blow out February with +PNA, like a lot of people/models think
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here's the 384hr prog though https://ibb.co/wKX9Krm It has some general accuracy Of course, that could always become a big -NAO for January
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    The PNA stands for Pacific-North America, so it's partially calculated over our region. 1/3 of the PNA is in the N. Pacific, over the Aleutian islands in Alaska, 1/3 is on the West Coast, and 1/3 the East coast. Therefore, if the PNA like -3, that's because there's usually a ridge on the east coast downstream.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    EPS has never really been a good model imo. Do you know what they showed for Dec 10-18?
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Something about this wants to say sorry.. it's a strong La Nina pattern in an El Nino https://ibb.co/18hVZJQ https://ibb.co/Jj78d4n
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z gfs has a pretty impressive Alaskan blizzard That cold around Greenland and Alaska at the surface is what I like to see for a gradual cold pattern.. cool source regions.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Massive ridge over Scandinavia the last few runs.. let's see if it holds, I've noticed big shifts over the NAO region in the LR, doesn't always load when it's suppose to.
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