Stormchaserchuck1

Yeah, the sample size is too small. 2/4 Strong Nino's have give us major blizzards, and 2/4 Strong Nino's have given us nothing. The cross-country ridge that is the ruling pattern in Strong Nino as per analog examples, doesn't really match if you think about it: What makes the 2nd wave in a Pacific-> Atlantic jet stream more broad? Different patterns at different times.. I'm saying that since the year 2000 something in the jet has slowed down and there is a gravity off the coast, as long as we don't have a ruling NPH (north pacific high).

Yeah I'm on all hours. Our last stronger Nino/-QBO was 09-10. weak Nino/-QBO was 14-15, but I'm excited because I think we are in some kind of long term -NAO phase since year 2000, making analogs like 91-92 and 86-87 have less weight, although these are the 3 stronger Nino's/-QBO's on record since 1979. Last Winter of course was opposite, stronger Nina/+QBO. We have had other bad Winter's with Nina/+QBO since year 2000 too. I think PSUhoffman understands the that the southern jet stream has/is lifting north.. It might be hard to go the Winter without having warmer/rebounding times too. I'm moderately excited though, the STJ wet macro pattern seems to be the pattern (bigger but fewer storms). Just envision storms in the subtropical jet moving into what could be a constant +PNA/GOA low. Could be a I-95 and point NW kind of Winter. Everyone is scared of east-based Nino, but I think that only strengthens the -NOI which is not a bad pattern. (None of the Nino/-QBO's were in an east-based Nino so far (82-83 and 97-98 were not -QBO)).

You guys aren't going to like the -PDO after the next 15 or so days.. last monthly reading was -2.54. There is a strong correlation Sept-Nov with the following Winter's conditions (more than random chance) so it could weaken after mid-July if we are going to see a good Winter, but it looks like re-strengthening -PDO should occur mid to late-July.

-PDO should strengthen the next 15 or so days...

QBO is almost negative already! 2023 12.50 9.80 10.93 12.89 9.26 0.72-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index Meaning it's probably going to be a solidly -QBO Winter.

Need to take a break from the rain, and build instability over several days if we are to see another good severe wx threat.

I'll take that one. The way the pattern is flowing, I can envision tracking several storms that could be snow. Winter ridges are not supported by anything in the upper level pattern, and above average snowfall is favored, imo. -PNA's are getting sheared out on MR/LR models May-July. We just really missed it hardcore last year. The Nina was about as strong as it could get relative to global average rising temperature. It's a macro pattern though, favoring just one good track the whole Winter, i.e. smaller events are less likely. Everything seems to run as one unit globally, unlike times like 97-98, meaning a +PNA or GOA low should correlate to trough/storm. That's the pattern.

Raining again here. The 9th or 10th time in the last 2 weeks.

-PNA may bring that SW ridge east through mid/late July.

Models have been way below average lately, almost intentionally so: i.e: current conditions impact the long range at about a 0.75 correlation. Warmer or colder than forecasted day goes out to 11-15 day model at like 85-90%. Seems we are in a "sleeping phase" as a whole system.

Here is what I came up with.. https://ibb.co/qpJFFdh

It kind of irks me that they always have predictability too low on Days 4-8 forecast. See a trough, and forecast out ahead of it.. They bust like crazy. Low risk is 15%, which rarely happens.

Summer's have been relatively cool since year 2000.

How crazy! When I was a kid... the correlation only intensified.

Our last El Nino Atlantic Hurricane season.

I always get hit in the Winter (north of Baltimore).

How about those -NAO extended ridges! We can't get an organic high pressure full rotation counter-clockwise over Greenland these days.

I've seen maybe 6-7" in the last 2 weeks.. El Nino is delivering here.

20 days till the hottest day of the year.. enjoy it.

I've noticed this, this year. There is a symmetry to the two atlantic storms- two east pacific storms, and that Cat 5. It seems the pattern is smoothing north, where 35N is the old 30N, as a macro pattern.

Natural Gas now down to 2.5 after rising from 2.1 to 2.7. It's price action similar to what it was '96-00. Russia remains colder than average.. through July on LR models. So Apr 2022- July 2023 (15 months): Research shows that the next 12+ months features to even out (warmer than average Russia). So DJF would be a composite of warmer than average Russia at like 0.25-30 correlation (I'll run the map when I have time).

Pretty significant pattern change coming up in 4-5 days..

I don't see why not. The NAO is negatively correlating, that's the only difference (-nao is correlating with +EPO/-PNA, +nao is better overall for snowfall). This started in the -PNA extremes after Dec 2010.

Can someone clarify, did Boston see 2" of snowfall Dec-Feb 18-19, or 17-18? I think that and last years snowfall along the coast are two strong plot points for current movement, on the "less" side of possibilities. (I feel Boston has some kind of block around legit extreme snowfall, re: global warming trend at this time. It could snow, but then be followed by warm days.)

I don't know about that.. maybe people are biased to their personal experiences. Everything about the society seems to "even out".