Wow

Yeah, the parallel GFS shows how the ULL will keep the precip over the area longer

3 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Also, TT shows a lot of rain where on WxBell it's snow. Looks wonky on TT for whatever reason.

Yes it's all how they are interpreting the profiles.

here N of CLT it's only marginal at the surface... a decent precip rate and it's all snow easily.. and based on the strength of that ULL there should be while the low is passing under us.

With the cutoff ULL I'd expect to see a lot more precip build back from CLT to RDU  but you're likely not going to see that get picked up on the models until we're within 48-60 hrs

Beautiful. ULL tracking over central GA.  Gonna see some good stuff outta this...  Verbatim N of I-85 as usual

Boom

Yeah, 0z GFS further south with the sfc low at 90

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I will take a hard pass on that analog.  See that downsloping area with no snow cover? That's MBY. Agonizing storm after multiple awful winters here. 

 

LOL yeah that was a raw deal for the immediate foothills.  With the 50/50 in place that shouldn't be a problem here.  Sfc temps already in the mid 30's before the precip even arrives per NAM

The ICON is a pile of Scheisse

It's a beautiful setup there with the ULL.  0z NAM is slower with wrapping up the ULL show the sfc low track is going to stay well south.  Should be a classic miller A track there.   I'm trying to find a good analog storm here.. perhaps March '09 with with a 50/50 low in place!

Just now, FLweather said:

What is that from? Looks like the nam 

top right corner will verify that  

0z NAM @ 84. This looks promising.  Sfc low over MSY.  Pretty nice phase setting up and with the low heights over the N Atlantic it can't pull it up north.

dude!

No worries about the moisture.. it'll be there with the strength of this ULL.  Actually the temps above the surface trended colder NW of the low

It's a better track. Again, cold air supply is going to be the question. 

Here's the trend of the GEFS. The ULL trending south and height building overhead into the great lakes which reinforces the HP.  Continue just a bit more and would put a lot more of NC in range.

2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Getting close to some benchmark areas .


.

It's closer.. Still would like it to dig about 80-100 miles further south to pop a low on the gulf coast.  It's tracking the low over central MS/AL/GA

28 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Not bad

 

 

Compared to 12z yesterday, definitely in the right direction

0z Euro had a favorable track and enough cold air is there to work with. Depends how quickly the secondary can pop to allow the lower and mid level cold air to sweep in.

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GFS Para has the snow , but further north... Shows a Snowstorm for most of VA 

Yes slower with the low transfer. Pulls the primary low pulls into KY while the secondary moves through GA. OP GFS was further south.

I like this trend, digging down the gulf coast will be ideal in this case with the marginal cold air available.

Climo wise, this would be confined to NW NC and northward with a Miller B low transfer provided the s/w digs well into the deep south. Any further south and it'll pop a gulf low and it's Miller A ala jan 96.  Some of the models 5 days out for that storm were showing this kind of set up initially...

So we've got a ULL on the 8th that might make some mischief on the 8th and then a s/w to watch following up on the 12th that could deliver a gulf low

We're in a place where only a couple of events define the season .. I think the best is yet to come snow-wise.  It's been a looong time coming since we've seen a sustained -NAO sig .. definitely want to roll these dice 

it's coming.  it's been 10 years since i've seen this, but a very sustained -NAO signature looks to be happening.. patience, people. once the PNA pops...

17 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

So far on most of the models, they are playing like the New York Jets

Then one of them will accidently win soon enough